Back to mostly cold weather this week across the state. The week won’t be without a little bit of up-and-down, but generally we spend a majority of the week below normal. And, our relatively active precipitation pattern continues.

This morning, we see action leaving the state to the east. This is the remnant of the light rain and snow that invaded late yesterday afternoon and went into the overnight. Moisture totals were generally a few hundredths to about .4” liquid equivalent. We should see sunshine for several hours today as high pressure sweeps quickly through the state, ending up in north central Ohio by this afternoon. On the backside of that high, though, clouds will begin to increase again toward sunset.

A significant frontal boundary will cross the state tomorrow. Action begins in and around midnight tonight. We will see moisture come in waves over the region from that point on through sunset tomorrow night. Total rains will be from .25”-1.5”, and coverage will be at least 90% of the state. The upper end of the range will be limited to areas that see come heavier bands or thunderstorms. Late tomorrow, one of those kinds of bands looks to set up over far northern Indiana, perhaps over the norther row or two or counties. Earlier in the day, we see a smaller batch of this type of action in central Indiana. But either way, if you are in a zone that sees the heavier action or not, everyone is going to get wet. Fueling the rain event will be south winds ahead of the front, bringing up the warmest air of the week into the circulation. Tomorrow will be the only day this week where we find ourselves above normal. The map shows cumulative precipitation through Wednesday morning.

Much colder air is on the way in for Wednesday morning. However, we think most of the moisture will be gone before it gets here. We won’t rule out a few snowflakes here and there over the northern third of the state to start off Wednesday, but in general, we are just cloudy and cold at midweek. Temps will be well below normal, and may barely break freezing in far northern areas.

Thursday should be dry statewide, and we see some sun in there. But, minor moisture moves in over the northern third of the state overnight Thursday night. This likely brings just clouds in most areas, but we will leave the door open to a few flurries and a bit of light snow from US 30 northward from sunset Thursday night to sunrise Friday morning. A fast moving little wave moves through from Friday evening into Saturday morning, and may bring a dusting of light snow to northern Indiana, and then a few hundredths of an inch to .2” liquid equivalent of a mix of rain and snow to areas south of I-70. There is not much moisture here, but it is testament to the cold air, and will give the potential for a bit of a mess as we start the weekend.

Saturday has high pressure in controls across the state, and Sunday looks mostly dry as well. Cold air to start Saturday will moderate to near normal temps for Sunday. South and southeast winds will help with that.

We start next week damp again. Another minor batch of moisture moves through, giving up to .25” of liquid equivalent precipitation. There is a chance of some of that coming as a mixt of rain and snow from US 24 northward, but generally, the rest of the region just is looking at a cold rain. This moisture should be to our east by midday Monday, and will strengthen as it leaves. Ohio could be looking at significantly higher rain totals for the start of next week. We mention that because a slight change in timing or track could bring higher rain totals back in to our region, so we are going to watch that system closely.

Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look like they want to stay dry, although a few scattered showers to the west in IL Tuesday morning may try and threaten western Indiana briefly before dissipating.

In the extended window, a strong low moves over the great lakes to finish next week on Friday. The track right now looks to keep the heaviest moisture over Michigan, but we are leaving the door open for .25”-.66” of rain across Indiana from late the 13^th through the 14^th, as the cold front associated with that northern low sweeps southeast. We also have a concern that the front will stall over the eastern corn belt near the I-70 corridor for the 15^th and 16^th, bringing an additional half to 1” of rain to the southern half of the state. More data is needed on this event, but it is entirely in the realm of possibility. Looking past the 11-16 day forecast window, we are watching another front for closer to the 18^th, with additional light rain potential.

Overall, this forecast is active. We do not see overly heavy rains with any significant confidence beyond what we see for tomorrow. But, we do see enough light moisture coming with ample frequency, along with rather cold air in the short term, to say that our field work chances through the first half of April are minimal to non-existent. In fact, we likely will start the second half of April with a soil profile a little on the “too wet” side. Cool temps will hinder drying conditions as well, exacerbating the issue.

Dry, sunny and cool today. This is the calm before the storm, so to speak. Dramatic changes in the weather are on the way for tomorrow.

Our next system moves in overnight tonight and crosses the state tomorrow. We have been watching cold air as it presents a bit of a challenge with this system. The storm complex is diving across the state from NW to SE. It is in the northern plains and upper Midwest today and tonight, and will be in eastern KY and WV by the end of tomorrow night. Moisture totals are unchanged in terms of liquid equivalent. We can see .25” to as much as 1”. But, there will be snow in here, as cold air rushes in tomorrow. WE look for snow to develop about 50-60 miles either side of a line from Peoria, IL down through the heart of Switzerland County. Snow totals can be impressive in spots, with anywhere from 2-6 inches possible. Along the fringe, a coating to 2 inches can develop. Now, if warmer air is able to hold on longer, we can see these totals far less. And that is what we are hoping for. Trust us…we are fine with you hoping we are completely wrong here. But, this look like a mess for tomorrow. The map shows snow totals by midnight tomorrow night. The good news is, the precipitation is done by tomorrow night, and we should be able to look at much better weather for Sunday.

We are going to be dry, but potentially cloudy for Sunday, sunny and not as cold for Monday. Strong south winds will help moderate temps on Monday ahead of our next system.

 

Tuesday kicks off a complicated, messy, damp 3 day period, where scattered showers of varying intensities move through. Tuesday, we see the best rains over the northern half to third of the state. There we can see .25” to nearly 1” of rain. The upper end of the range will be rather limited. This will by far be the most intense period of moisture. Then for Wednesday-Thursday we can see additional chances for showers that can bring another few hundredths to half an inch. However, the upper end of the range for Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be in central and southern parts of the state, away from where the rains fell Tuesday. So, what that means is that we should see a decent spread of rain over the state through the period, with combined totals at .4”-1.1” and coverage at 75%. We shift back to a dry pattern briefly for next Friday.

 

That dry pattern now looks to extend through at least Saturday. This is a change in our forecast, as our next system looks delayed just a bit. We are still going to keep Easter wet at this point, but we may be able to delay the start of action until closer to midday. Models are in disagreement on the timing of the front, but still show it to be a strong one. If we delay the arrival of the rain until Easter Sunday or even later in the day on Sunday, that will stretch the rains into the first part of the 11-16 day window.

 

The rest of the extended forecast shows a strong storm complex moves through around the 5^th. This front will look to bring rains from .25”-.5”, but may raise the specter of a few thunderstorms as well. Strong high pressure is still expected for the 6^th forward.

 

Dry and chilly today and tomorrow. However, we should see ore sunshine statewide, and temps may moderate just a touch for tomorrow.

Our next system moves in overnight Friday night into Saturday. Rain will be with us through the entire day Saturday and can linger through Sunday morning. Rain totals will easily be .25”-1.4” with coverage at 80% of the state. The heavier rains likely fall in southern Indiana and central Indiana, as the rains start first in the south and west, and end there later as well. Think of this as a first one on the bus, last one off the bus” kind of scenario. That will lead to the bigger rains. The map at right shows the set up for this weekend, with combined liquid equivalent precipitation for Friday night through Sunday morning. We say “liquid equivalent” because cold air blasts into the state overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. That means there is a very real chance that the precipitation will end as some sloppy wet snow. Again the better chances for accumulation will be in central Indiana…where the cold air dominates and yet the liquid hangs on longer. We can see minor accumulations of a coating to an inch over about 40% of the northern half of the state.

Dry for Monday of next week, but then we see a very complicated mess for the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday time frame. We kick things off with a front for Monday overnight through Tuesday. This event can bring .05”-.5” precipitation to 70% of the state. From there, we see additional chances for showers Tuesday and Wednesday that can bring another few hundredths to few tenths. If you combine all three days together, you end up with .25”-.75” rain totals over about 70% of the state. It will be a wet period, but not overly excessive moisture. Temps climb for Monday on south winds ahead of this mess, but then pull back to near normal and slightly below normal levels for midweek. We shift back to a dry pattern briefly for next Friday.

Easter weekend looks wet still, but we are shifting our storm system back about 12-18 hours. Rains now likely develop Saturday evening, the 31^st, and then really ramp up for Easter Sunday, the 1^st. This is mostly due to the low splitting, and the first wave pushing farther south and east. This will set up similar to what we saw with the events over the past 24 hours, and a strong storm could move up the coast again. So, with this change in arrival and track, we are pulling our range back to .5”-1.5”, and the upper end of the range may develop over southern Indiana. From there, we are dry for the 2^nd through the 4^th, and a strong storm complex moves through around the 5^th. This front will look to bring rains from .25”-.5”, but may raise the specter of a few thunderstorms as well. Strong high pressure will move in for the 6^th forward.

Cold air continues to barrel into the state today, and we have more moisture around a straggling upper level low causing all sorts of problems for central and southern Indiana this morning. This upper low is behind the strong east coast system that is hitting today, and it looks to ride up the west side of the Appalachians while the nor’easter part of the system moves up the coast. That little shift is what is bringing the snow to Ohio and parts of Indiana today. A coating to 2” can be seen south and east of a line arcing from Fort Wayne, to Kokomo to Indy to Louisville. In southeast Indiana, we can see 4-5” or perhaps more combined in spots through midday and early afternoon. This action started back last night. The rest of the state will see no precipitation, as this is wrapping around the backside of the upper low, which is already over eastern OH and western PA. However, even without precipitation, we still stay cloudy and cold in all other areas. The chill holds through the end of the week.

Our next system moves in for Saturday. Rain totals will easily be .25”-1” over the entire state, unchanged from yesterday’s thoughts. However, we think moisture can be drawn out a little longer, lingering into early Sunday morning.  All rains should be done by mid-morning Sunday but as temperatures fall behind the front, we still can’t rule out the possibility that the precipitation ends as wet snow over a large part of the state. We can see minor accumulations of a coating to an inch once again.

Dry for Monday of next week, but we have another system coming in for overnight Monday night through Tuesday. This event can bring .05”-.5” precipitation to 70% of the state. Models are less confident in how the pattern unfolds from there, bringing moisture in sooner for Wednesday and less moisture for Thursday. At this point, we think it best to look at the entire midweek period next week and say we expect 2 waves of moisture to come through. Totals will be anywhere from .1”-.6” with 70% coverage…but timing of each wave is a little up in the air. We should still be on track to get a dry day in for next Friday.

Moderate to heavy rains arrive for Easter weekend on the 31^st and 1^st. We are raising rain totals to .5”- 2” over 100% of the state. This will be a very moisture laden system. But then we go dry for the 2^nd through the 5^th for the remainder of the extended forecast window.