Cold air continues its dominance today and tomorrow over the region, but we do see a move toward a drier pattern. In fact, we make it from today through all of next week with very little threat of precipitation. Today and tomorrow high pressure will be working across Indiana. Clouds will still be a part of the forecast today, but less of a part, and full sunshine is in tomorrow. Over the weekend, we transition onto the backside of high pressure, and that will bring some south and southeast flow, allowing temps to moderate just a bit. We have no threat of precipitation through Sunday. On Saturday we could see some clouds into southern Indiana, an off shoot of a storm complex that stays south of the Ohio River this weekend. The map below shows temps tomorrow morning as they relate to normal.

On Monday, we see warming continue with good south wind flow. However, we have a few more clouds that come in as the warm air arrives. This may allow for a few spits and sprinkles overnight Monday night into the first part of Tuesday, but at this time, this looks highly disorganized, and likely is not going to be an issue. That is why we are keeping our forecast dry, in terms of actual precipitation. That dryness goes through the end of the week, right through Saturday. We will see a significant change in air mass, though, going into Wednesday and Thursday. Winds shift back to the northwest, and we will see cooler temps in that period. The low tracks across the great lakes, and we should be able to see good sun through the end of the week, in spite of the cool down.

The extended forecast pattern suggests we still see our next good front late on the 17^th into the 18^th, with rains of .2”-.6” over the state. The best coverage looks to be over the southern half of the state. We follow that up with dry weather for a good 3 days, and then another low moves in around the 22^nd, bringing rains of .1”-.5” and coverage a little better at 80%. Still, the dry pattern for the next week to 10 days means we will be ready and likely willing to accept some moisture out of those extended period systems.

 

Cold air holds over the state today. Moisture kicked off late yesterday afternoon and continued to stay over the state through the overnight. Today, we are cold enough to see mostly light snow and flurry action through the morning into early afternoon, but we won’t rule out a bit of rain mixing in at times. However, today will be colder than yesterday. The coldest part of this air mass will be over us today and tomorrow. Precipitation today features 60% coverage, with no significant accumulation, but a coating on grassy surfaces or cars still has the potential to be seen in spots. Lake enhancement also is something to look out for in far northern Indiana.

 

Dry conditions move in tomorrow, but clouds will still cast a wide footprint across the state, with significant wrapping around the low that is moving off to the east. Temperatures struggle to break the lower 30s tomorrow and will only do a few degrees better for Friday over the northern half of the state. Down south, we can push toward the lower 40s tomorrow and maybe toward 50 on Friday. Sunshine is back for Friday as high pressure drifts through.

 

Our next system is still on track for overnight Friday night into the start of the weekend. We are keeping I-70 as the delineation line for precipitation, with rains likely only south of there. The latest models are actually fading precipitation farther south. We are not changing our forecast for now, except to maybe allow for more breaks in the clouds over northern Indiana. We look for a potential mix of rain and snow, with liquid equivalent precipitation totals at .25”-.33” with nearly 60% coverage south of I-70. Also, models have mysteriously done away with the second wave that showed up yesterday for the Sunday time frame. That right there is why we do not make major changes to our forecast on only 1 model run!

 

Dry weather is expected for next week. Monday-Wednesday have been dry, and we are extending that through Friday the 16^th. We still like a system for late the 16^th into the 17^th with minor moisture. Temperatures will moderate next week, and we should be back to normal and above normal levels. We continue to watch a system for the 20^th and 21^st, where we can see some rains of half to 1 inch at least. Strong southwest flow in the extended 11-16-day forecast window will lead to a slightly higher chance of stormy weather.

Rain and wet snow is moving out of the state this morning, but cold air looks to hang around for a good while yet. Clouds will dominate the region today, and we won’t rule out some wet snowflakes here and there this afternoon, although action will be very very limited.

 

Cold air will be the main feature of the rest of the week. That cold air mixes with a little bit of moisture coming in from the NW tomorrow, and will trigger some light snow and flurry action statewide. We look for 60% coverage, with no significant accumulation. That being said, a coating on grassy surfaces or cars still has the potential to be seen in some areas. Lake enhancement also is something to look out for in far northern Indiana. Liquid equivalent moisture tomorrow will be only a few hundredths to a tenth. Temperatures struggle to break the lower 30s tomorrow and Thursday over the northern half of the state, and 40 can be a stretch down south. Thursday we should see sunshine reappear, and on Friday, we start to see temps moderate just a bit. However, we think that temps still do no better than normal for Friday statewide. Southwest winds developing Friday afternoon will start to bring slightly warmer air up into the state.

 

Our next system is still on track for the start of the weekend. However, it is coming a little faster, and we see precipitation breaking out overnight Friday through Saturday morning over the southern half of the state. Clouds will be seen statewide, but we think precipitation will be very limited north of I-70, and nothing falls north of US 24. As cold air still wants to be in control for this period, especially with the timing now shifting to an overnight period, so we have to allow for a mix of rain and wet snow from I-70 down into Kentucky. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will be .25”-.33” with nearly 100% coverage south of I-70. At this time, the track of the system remains more east than north, so we do not think that moisture lifts up into northern Indiana or NW Ohio.

 

A new wrinkle is in for Sunday. Models late yesterday started throwing another weekend wave in, with a nice batch of moisture tracking across the state from NW to SE on Sunday. Liquid precipitation potential is from .1”-.6” and we think that can come predominately as wet snow, with some rain mixing in. That would lead to some potential accumulations, unless temps moderate more than we expect right now. WE are tentatively trending our forecast wetter for this weekend, while looking for a few confirming models runs this morning to really hone in on timing and track.

 

Dry weather remains in our forecast for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Next thus day we start to see some light precipitation come in from the west, the likely leading edge of our system for the 16^th. Moisture totals do not look all that impressive yet, but we expect the system to strengthen. For the rest of the extended period, moderating temps are expected with normal and above normal temperatures in for most of the second half of the month. We continue to watch a system for the 20^th and 21^st, where we can see some rains of half to 1 inch at least. Strong southwest flow in the extended 11-16 day forecast window will lead to a slightly higher chance of stormy weather.

Another nice day to start the week, but make no mistake about it…this week will feel much more like winter than spring. A strong storm complex moving out of the northern plains, coming through the upper Midwest and great lakes will bring some moisture and significantly colder air to the region. In fact, we will spend most of this week below normal on temps over most of the state. The good news is, we do not see a major amount of precipitation anywhere over the coming 10 days. But, our temperature pattern will not be quite as “nice” as we saw back in February.

Today we see plenty of sunshine across the state, although we will start to see clouds increase this afternoon ahead of our next front. Winds go more southeast this afternoon which may allow for a few more degrees on the topside of our temperatures than what we saw this past weekend. Winds will be somewhat strong this afternoon.

Clouds thicken up this evening, and we see scattered precipitation breaking out over the state. We will see rain to start from around 9pm or so in the western part of the state, and then rain mixes with or changes over to some light snow over the northern third of the state. Scattered light rains continue in central and southern Indiana. We do not expect any significant snow accumulation, but perhaps a fresh coating up north on cars or grassy surfaces. Liquid equivalent precipitation will be limited to a quarter inch or less, and coverage will be about 70% of the state. The best chance of missing out will be over the southern third to quarter of the state.

Colder air rushes in behind the front. That is the reason we have the potential for wet snow in northern Indiana from midnight tonight through tomorrow morning. That cold air will dominate most of the rest of the week. While moisture takes a break tomorrow, clouds likely hold. We can see a little bit of moisture come back in tomorrow night and hold through Wednesday…just enough to trigger some light snow and flurry action over 60% of the state. There will be no significant accumulation, but there will be flakes around off and on through that period. Temps will struggle to break the lower 30s tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday over the northern half of the state, and 40 can be a stretch down south.

Thursday we should see sunshine reappear, and on Friday, we start to see temps moderate just a bit. However, we think that temps still do no better than normal for Friday statewide. Southwest winds developing Friday afternoon will start to bring slightly warmer air up into the state.

Saturday we see a system working by to the south. This will bring clouds to a large part of the state, mostly from US 24 southward, and we will see rain from I-70 down into Kentucky. Rain totals will be .25”-.33” with nearly 100% coverage south of I-70. At this time, the track of the system is more east than north, so we do not think that moisture lifts up into northern Indiana or NW Ohio. But. We are watching it. Everything is gone in southern Indiana by sunset Saturday night.

The rest of our 10 day window looks pretty dry, and south winds moderate temps nicely WE see clouds over southern Indiana on Sunday, but nothing up north, and then full sun and dry weather for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will be in place at midweek next week, and should promote sunshine on into the second half of the week. The high may drop temps just a bit for midweek, as it looks to have Canadian origins. But still, it is a big pattern improvement over this week. We do see a significant front in the extended period around the 17^th. The low passes by to the NW and that is where the heaviest precipitation will be (in the upper Midwest) but we still think we have to look for .25”-.75” rain potential across Indiana. We follow that up with another stronger storm complex for the 19^th into the 20^th.