Clouds will be breaking up today, and we should settle in to a mostly dry forecast pattern for the remainder of the week and weekend. Overall, our thought process and pattern ideas are unchanged this morning. Our next weather system arrives on Monday.

This Monday front is not overly impressive, but still has a good chance of rain moving through the state. We do not think thunderstorms are a major threat at this time, just showers. Coverage will be around 60-70% of the state and we are keeping rain totals at .25”-.75”. Now, without serious large scale thunderstorms threats, we will point you mostly toward the lower end of the range, under half an inch in most cases, but will leave the upper bounds where they are at for the time being. The rains are out fairly quickly by Monday night.

Behind that front, we are back to dry conditions through the balance of next week, and we do not see our next front until we get well into the 11-16 day extended period. That front still is on track for the 25^th and 26^th. That front has potential for .25”- to at most 1 inch of rain, coverage at 80%. So, our current pattern has only those two rain threats (next week early, and then the 25^th-26^th) through the balance of the month of September. This is a good forecast if you are wanting to dry things down for harvest. It’s not the best forecast if you need more good rains to finish things off, like many of you do.

Temperatures will be near normal today and through the end of the week. Next week we see similar temps unfolding over the region. We look for a slight cool down behind the early week front next week, before we build back up late in the week with south flow.

Scattered showers will meander through the state through the day today. We are looking at rain totals of a few hundredths to a few tenths for the most part, although we may see some slightly higher rain totals in southeastern parts of the state and near the river. Coverage remains at around 60% of the state. This updated map shows cumulative rain totals through tomorrow morning. We think the northern third of the state will see the precipitation shown on this map evaporate significantly, meaning coverage will not be as good as the map (again, we are at 60% coverage today).

While clouds hold through at least the middle of the day tomorrow, precipitation will be done overnight tonight. We see drier weather returning to the state with sunshine eventually dominating for Friday through the weekend. Models have been very haphazard with a system we have in for Monday. At this time, the system is back (models took it out yesterday, but we did not change our forecast) on the models and we will continue to look for rains Monday and Monday evening. We are paring back our rain totals slightly, looking for .25”-.75” over about 70% of the state. We do not see as big of a thunderstorm threat at this time.

Behind that front, we are dry through the balance of next week, and we do not see our next front until we get well into the 11-16 day extended period. That front still is on track for the 26^th, although some models are trying to speed it up a day or so. Stay tuned. That front has potential for .25”- to at most 1 inch of rain, coverage at 80%. Still, if that front holds, and we see the rains this coming Monday, that means we have only 2 threats of rain for the remainder of the month of September…which would be well below normal.

Temperatures will be near normal today and through the end of the week. Next week we see similar temps unfolding over the region. We look for a slight cool down behind the early week front next week, before we build back up late in the week with south flow.

Clouds became much more noticeable yesterday as the day went on, and they are associated with Irma as she churns across the Deep South. On her trek through the TN valley over the next day and a half, she will throw more clouds and even a bit of precipitation up our way.

Today should be mostly dry. Scattered showers start to develop tonight, mostly over central and southern Indiana, and then we have scattered showers through the day Wednesday. We are bumping our coverage somewhat, bringing 60% coverage of combined rain totals of mostly a few hundredths to .3”. We think the most general coverage of rain will be a tenth or two. East central and then southern Indiana are the best zones for rain coverage between tonight and the end of the day tomorrow. Temps will be warming today, but will be capped by clouds and light moisture tomorrow.

Drier weather returns with sunshine trying to poke through at some point Thursday midday or afternoon. We have no rain chances in here for thus day late, Friday and most of the weekend. There is still a weak upper level disturbance crossing the great lakes Sunday afternoon and evening, which may drag a few scattered showers down into Indiana, mostly north of US30. These outlook on this event is unchanged, meaning showers can bring a few hundredths to perhaps a third of an inch, but coverage will be only about 40% over areas from US 30 northward, and under 10% over areas outside of that zone. Where there may be some tweaks forthcoming, though, will be with the follow up system for Monday. Models have mysteriously deleted the strong storm potential for Monday afternoon. We are not ready to make dramatic changes to our outlook yet…as convection as impressive as we were seeing just does not “disappear”. However, it does bear watching…because without that secondary push of moisture, we could find ourselves dry right on through most of the rest of the month of September. So, any change to the rain potential for next Monday has the potential to dramatically reshape the precipitation landscape for the entire month. For now, we will leave rain chances Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning at half to 1.5” with coverage at 70%. But, we are monitoring closely.

The rest of the 10 day window and the extended 11-16 day window look dry. Strong upper level high-pressure is likely to be in control, and we may not see our next front moving toward Indiana until closer to the 26^th. So, no changes in the extended period this morning.

Temps stall out later this week near normal, but should stay near normal for most of next week into the week following. We do not see any well above normal temps spreading in here, but yet cannot say that we have any elevated frost risk either.

We start off the week answering the questions that were being asked last week, namely “will we see any of the effects of Irma up here”. Now that the storm has made landfall and is slowly churning through the Deep South, we are ready to track the remains. And yes…we will see some effects of the storm in Indiana…but not very much.

Before we get there, though, let’s talk about the next few days. We are still under the influence of high pressure over the state today, with nice south winds coming up the backside of a major high that is pushing off to the east. This will allow temps to be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday, and a few degrees warmer tomorrow over today. Actually we will see temps finally get back to normal tomorrow after an extended cool period. We do not think that we are going too much above normal anytime in the upcoming forecast period.

We start to see some clouds from Irma come in tomorrow night, and then for Wednesday and a good chunk of Thursday we see those clouds lingering, with a few scattered showers. South and southeast Indiana gets the best chance of these hit and miss showers, but we won’t rule them out elsewhere either. Combined over the 2 day period, we think coverage of rain will be no better than about 50%, with rain totals mostly under a quarter of an inch. However, clouds will be seen over 80-90% of the state…and that will keep temps down a bit. However, that is basically the only true effects of the hurricane remains up in our neck of the woods. The remains of Harvey were much more impressive than the remains of Irma will be.

Behind that disturbance, we are back to dry weather again to finish out the week for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Sunday afternoon and evening we see a fairly minor disturbance coming across northeast IL, southern WI and MI that may drag a few scattered showers down into Indiana, mostly north of US30. These showers can bring a few hundredths to perhaps a third of an inch, but coverage will be only about 40% over areas from US 30 northward, and under 10% over areas outside of that zone. However, this likely does really prime the atmosphere for a much bigger system for Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. This wave comes across the great lakes and brings a big swath of rain and heavy thunderstorm action to Indiana and western OH. Rain totals can be from half to 1.5” with coverage at 70%. Western Indiana may be able to miss out on this wave (the western third of the state), but eastern and particularly northeastern parts of Indiana look like they can get hammered. It will be interesting to see of this system can maintain its strength and organization as we move closer to its arrival. But for now it looks very potent.

Behind that front, we are dry for the rest of the 10 day period, for next Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday and into Thursday. In fact, the 11-16 day forecast period kicks off dry, with a strong upper level high over the Great Lakes. Our next good potential front could be delayed until closer to the 26th with rains slowly moving over the western Corn Belt from the 23rd through the 25th, but running into serious resistance moving into the eastern Corn Belt due to that strong upper level high eroding the moisture as it moves across the Mississippi River into central Illinois.

Overall, we are calling temperatures near normal for the upcoming 16 day period. The coolest times will be with the increase in cloud cover a few days from now, and then behind the strong front that starts off next week. We do not see any spectacular warm up to well above normal levels through the coming 2 weeks.