Continued sunny, pleasant and dry today over the entire state. Our dry pattern will continue through the weekend and our forecast is unchanged this morning. One thing to note…as high pressure moves across the region over the next 24 hours, air will stay to the cooler side of normal. However, “cold” air is not a concern. We mention this because we saw some other weather outlets trying to advance fears about some temps pushing into the upper 30s in IN or OH tomorrow morning. We do not see that at all, and think that the attempt to push a cold air narrative is way too much over the top. But, as south winds develop around the back side of the high, we will see temps move back upward through the weekend.

We are on track for our next rain threat to unfold over the first half of next week. We still think a few thunderstorms can dot the landscape later Monday afternoon, mostly in central or southern Indiana, and we have to keep an eye out for rain through Wednesday. The way things are coming together right now, we could see Tuesday turn out to be the day with heaviest precipitation, by virtue of better thunderstorm development. Several models suggest that we may see a couple lines of thunderstorms through the day Tuesday, extending north to south across the state. Those thunderstorms will have the potential to boost rain totals. However, we are not going to change our thoughts that much, only raising the upper end of our range a quarter of an inch. If thunderstorms play a bigger role on Tuesday, yes, we can see higher rain totals, but we also will see coverage suffer…giving much more of a hit and miss component to the event. Still, we are holding with rain potential of .25”-1.5” with coverage of 80% of the state through Wednesday.

Mostly dry next Thursday and Friday while we see the remains of Hurricane Harvey pass by to the south. We still think the heavy rain from that post tropical event will stay south of the OH River, but we continue to watch closely. Dry then for Saturday through Labor Day Monday as well, with nearly normal temps.

Our next system in the extended period looks to come just a little sooner now, moving in for the 5^th and lingering through the 7^th. Rain totals over the 3-day period are slightly higher, since we are putting in one more day with precipitation from this event. So, we are looking at rain totals of .25”-1.25 over 90% of the state. This front sweeps through from west to east, and has good moisture as it develops…so this will be a nice rain for all. Temps behind the front go cooler as we head toward September 8^th, 9^th and 10^th.

 

Dry weather settles in over the state today behind the frontal boundary that moved out of the state late yesterday. High pressure will be the focal point of this dry pattern, with 2 distinct high pressure circulations moving across the region between now and the end of Sunday. Temps will be slightly cooler today with lower humidity, but as south winds rotate in behind the highs, we will see temps build through the end of the week and weekend.

Our next rain threat remains for the first part of next week with rain and even a few thunderstorms dotting the landscape from Monday afternoon through Wednesday. There will be plenty of breaks in the precipitation, and the timing is still uncertain – will there be 1 wave or two, heavy thunderstorms or not? Still, the combined action remains right in our previous range, with .25”-1” expected and coverage at about 80% of the state.

By next Thursday, we see a couple of dry days back going through Friday over a large part of the state. However, there will be a strong low, which will be the remains of a tropical storm event moving inland over the TX gulf coast earlier in the week, passing by south of the OH river next Friday. If that low wobbles at all, it may be able to throw some heavier rains in the extreme southernmost counties into early Friday morning. That will be a feature to watch. Right now we say it misses the Hoosier state and is a feature for KY and the TN valley.

In the extended period, we look to open up the holiday weekend a bit more this morning, taking out rain for Saturday the 2^nd. Instead, we are seeing more energy flowing into a front for late in the extended window, for the 6^th through the 7^th, that can bring .2”-.9” to nearly all of the state. Temps still look to be normal to above normal through early September.

Dry today behind the front that moved through yesterday. Humidity levels dropped, but temps have held in and likely will yield near to above normal temps for the weekend and early next week.

We do have a minor little wave of moisture that moves through the northern part of the state tomorrow morning. This wave will bring a few scattered showers triggering a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch of moisture over about 60% of the northern half of the state. There can be some slightly higher totals up near the Michigan line, and then over in southern lake, southern porter, northern Newton and Jasper counties. But, that may be finessing the forecast just a bit much. The southern part of the state gets nothing for Saturday.

Dry statewide for Sunday and Monday. Our next front arrives Tuesday, but may be delayed just a bit, hitting more for Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Our thoughts on the scope of this system are unchanged this morning, with rains of .25”-.1” inch over 70% of the state. The map above shows a snapshot of precipitation potential Tuesday night, around midnight.

We are back to dry weather for next Wednesday and that goes through the end of the week and weekend.

In the extended period we have a front still wanting to show up around the turn of the month. This front looks stronger in the western Corn Belt, but we still think it can bring at .25”-.6” of rain to about 60% of the state. However, there is strong high pressure up on Ontario, and we need to watch to see if that high keeps the frontal complex farther south, even south of the OH River.

The rest of the extended window through the Labor Day holiday looks dry and pleasant.

Temps will be working to normal and above normal levels through next week, thanks to good south flow.

Rain crosses the state today with a well-advertised front. We have been talking about this system all week long and it is finally here. We start the day with some thunderstorms trying to develop mostly in western and northern Indiana, but rains will eventually spread statewide with 80% coverage. We look for rain totals in the .25”-1.25” range with thunderstorms needed to get into the upper part of the range. Everything should be winding down this evening, and completely out of the state to the east by midnight.

 

Dry weather is in for tomorrow, but we will not be able to wave the all clear flag for the complete weekend just yet. Yesterday we introduced the threat on some models of scattered light moisture for the northern third to half of the state to start off Saturday. This morning we are confirming that concern. WE look for scattered showers to bring a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch of moisture to the northern half to third of Indiana, with coverage around 60% north of I-70. The southern part of the state will be dry.

 

The balance of Saturday in the north will dry out and then we see a dry Sunday and Monday as well.

 

Our next front is in for next Tuesday. This front brings rains of .25”-1 inch over 70% of the state. We have dialed back coverage just a bit this morning. Those rains should be well received, and will sweep through in just a 24 hour period.

 

We are back to dry weather for next Wednesday and that goes through the end of the week and weekend.

 

In the extended period we have a front still wanting to show up around the 31^st into the turn of the month. This front looks stronger this morning and can bring at least half an inch of rain. However, timing is difficult, because the front look stronger over the western Corn Belt, and may attempt to fall apart or slow as it moves east…so stay tuned.

 

Temps will be working to normal and above normal levels through next week, thanks to good south flow.