3 more days of rain across the state before we shut the moisture off and change the pattern drier. Today’s focus of the heaviest rain potential will be over central Indiana. We can see .25” to an inch or more depending on where you are at in relation to the bigger thunderstorms. Tomorrow’s daytime rains look more hit and miss, and there may be better dry windows involved, but then overnight tomorrow night through Thursday, we see better rains redeveloping with a final batch of potential strong thunderstorms. All told, from today through Thursday we can see additional rains of .5”-2.5” over about 80% of the state. Today’s rains will be more regional, but statewide rain chances are much better Wednesday night and Thursday. By early Friday morning everything is gone, and we begin to transition to a much drier pattern. The map above shows cumulative rain totals through Thursday evening.

As strong high pressure starts to build in from the west, our forecast remains rain free for Friday through all of next week. Just  stay true to what we mentioned yesterday, we won’t rule out some pop up heat based thunderstorms in there as heat begins to build, but those will be on a very, very isolated basis. An upper level ridge currently over the plains and western Corn Belt will try to expand east through next week.

We still have a minor front in our forecast for the 22^nd with scattered light showers as the main threat. Rain totals can be from .1”-.5” with 60% coverage, but we think most of the state that sees rain will be in the .1”-.2” part of the range. That will not be enough to really stave off the dry pattern. Immediately behind the front we return to the warm, dry pattern of the upper level ridge, and this holds through at least the 26^th.

At the end of the extended period, around the 26^th, we do have a front moving into the NW Corn Belt and stretching back into Nebraska. This would hint at the potential of a front trying to work into the ECB toward the end of the month, maybe around the 28^th into the 29^th. However, this front will have to strengthen significantly in order to have any serious chance of diminishing the ridge and bringing meaningful precipitation to Indiana.

 

INDIANA WEATHER OUTLOOK

A very interesting forecast pattern has emerged for this upcoming period. We are going to be very wet for the next 4 days (today through Thursday), and then we may basically shut off all moisture for the rest of the 10 day period, and the 11-16 day window. This is a forecast pattern that, if it holds, will really cause some consternation in the marketplace.

Today we have showers and thunderstorms developing over the northern half of the state and working through. Tomorrow’s pattern look similar. For Wednesday and Thursday we have to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms over a more general coverage pattern of the state. Each day, where it rains, we can see rain totals of anywhere from .25”-1”. Combined, we see 1”-3” over about 80% of the state from today through Thursday. After the heavy rains from last Friday, this moisture this soon will not be welcome. Temperatures will be near normal, but strong warming is not likely with the moisture staying close by through the next 4 days. The map above shows combined rain potential through the next 4 days.

On Friday, we will find ourselves behind all frontal boundaries, and this will kick off a dry pattern. Our forecast is rain free for Friday through the weekend, and on through all of next week. AS warm air builds, we won’t completely rule out scattered heat based pop up thunderstorms, but those do not look to be a big part of the forecast equation, as we do not have a good moisture source to tap into. A large upper level high and developing upper level ridge will begin to dominate.

Our only threat of a front arrives around the 22^nd, with scattered light showers. The atmosphere will be very dry by that time, so this minor front likely does not have enough moisture and energy to do anything significant, but it has potential for .1”-.5” rains over about 70% of the state. Behind that front, high pressure reasserts itself and will be in control through the rest of the 16 day period.

This pattern also looks to hold through the end of the month…as we look upstream out to the west and north, and see nothing coming that has any serious potential to break the ridge. This means we likely see hot and drier weather for a large part of the pollination of our late planted Hoosier corn crop this month.

Dry today and tomorrow with strong high pressure over the state. Temps remain cool, at least for today. We may start to warm things up a bit tomorrow as flow turns more southwest.

We still project a very active second half of the week. No change in arrival for our next strong front on Thursday. We look for .25”-1”, and a second surge Friday that can bring just as much. The chance of rain diminish some now for the 3^rd push over the weekend, but at this point we will not completely rule out rains either. So, overall, we are leaving our combined totals for Thursday through the weekend at .5”-2.5” of rain with 100% coverage through the state. However, the upper part of the range (>2”) will be only triggered by heavy thunderstorms. We think the best thunderstorm threats are Thursday and Friday, so that means if you do not see heavy thunderstorms or stronger rains during the first part of the rain period (Thursday-Friday), you likely will not be in the upper part of the rain potential. So, watch the first half of this period the closest.

With the weekend having less rain, it looks like we are just pushing that energy back a day, with stronger rains developing Monday into early Tuesday. Rain totals can be from half to 1.5” over 80% of the state Monday. Thunderstorms are again a large part of the equation to start the week. That puts 6 day rain totals from this Thursday through next Tuesday in impressive territory (see above map).

The rest of next week looks drier. WE can’t rule out some heat based showers, as a strong area of high pressure looks to dominate, but have some light moisture trapped underneath. That pattern continues through most of the extended period, with an upper level ridge trying to form, but still having some residual light moisture trapped underneath. For that reason, we are not talking up riding on a large scale yet, but we are watching this minor moisture closely. If it dissipates (like we think it will) that leads to a longer term hot, dry pattern through mid-July. If it can hold on, that means hit and miss showers over the state through the week after next, with not a lot of big time rains, but enough to keep us from saying it will be dry as well.

Not much change in the forecast this morning. We are bringing our rain threat forward just a bit (about 12-18 hours or so) from our last forecast last week and allowing rain potential over more of the state, but the actual rain threat is not very large at all.

We should see sun and some high clouds today, then as an upper level disturbance pushes across the state this evening and overnight, we have to allow for some minor showers, a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 50% of the state. This will not be just southern Indiana…this is potential statewide, but chances pretty minor and rain inconsequential, for the most part. Back to dry weather for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure takes control.

The second half of the week is very active. A strong front on Thursday can bring .25”-1”, and then a second wave Friday can bring another .25”-1”. Chances of rain redevelop later Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, and yet another push of moisture later Sunday into early, early Monday. All told, if you put the 4 days together (Thursday through Sunday) we expect .5”-2.5” of rain with 100% coverage through the state. A large part of the state will be from 1”-2”. You may not get rain in your specific area every single time (or you might), but you will get good rains at some point through the 4 day period. The map above shows combined rain totals through Sunday evening.

Dry Monday midday and afternoon into Tuesday, then a minor system arrives next Wednesday (5^th) bringing up to .25” over about 50% of the state. The extended window tries to dry out a bit, with our next front waiting until the 8^th into the 9^th to arrive with .25”-.75” of rain.

Temps will be climbing this week and next week after the rains are done we should see some much warmer air trying to take hold over the state. Temps should be above normal through the upcoming period, a dramatic difference from the past weekend’s temps. With the temps climbing, humidity values will rise as well.