Dry today over the state. We are behind a cold front that moved through last night, and should see humidity levels drop somewhat. The front was disappointing, as it only triggered a few thunderstorms, mostly over the eastern part of the state.

Our Saturday rains do not look as impressive this morning, and at this time we are taking rain out of most of the state for tomorrow. WE cant rule out showers and thunderstorms moving into west central and NW Indiana for afternoon and evening, but these rains only will end up affecting about 30% of the entire state. Models are in agreement on a drier Saturday at this time. Now, better chances of rain do exist for the state Sunday with a frontal boundary looking to sweep through the state. Still, these rains also do not look quite as impressive as they did earlier in the week. At this point, we are backing our rain totals down to 25”-.75” rain totals over about 70% of the state, and most of this action is tapering off by midday. We could be sunny by mid-afternoon and dry to finish the day. The above map is a snapshot of progression of the rain by midnight Saturday night, going into Sunday morning. This model suggests strong thunderstorms, giving the higher rain totals. But, we think those thunderstorms, or at least the strong thunderstorms, will end up being farther west, in IL.

Dry weather continues then for Monday and most of Tuesday. That’s the easy part. Then instability and uncertainty start to dominate later in the week, and those items are a key to our forecast this morning. Starting with Monday and Tuesday – high pressure will be in control and we feel this will start to build through the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, allowing for an upper level ridge to start to form. The ridge may stall in its development at midweek. WE have a few scattered showers that try to cross the state overnight Tuesday night and early Wednesday, amounting to a few hundredths to no more than .3”. Coverage will end up being around 70% of the state. Thursday is a tough call at this point. WE like a drier scenario, but are troubled by moisture lingering over about half the state. Therefore, we will allow for some scattered showers through Thursday and limited sunshine. Rain totals will be .1”-.6” with coverage at 60% or less.

For Friday and Saturday, we have sunshine trying to re-assert itself, but we can’t rule out some isolated showers. This likely comes as a consequence of warming temps and higher humidity, triggering instability over the state. Action will not be in many places, the way we see it right now, but we can’t completely rule out these showers either. We will say that the northern half of the state has better chances and we can see 2 day rain totals of .25” to 1”, with the largest rain totals only possible with thunderstorms.  If an upper level ridge does a better job of building through the week, and a tropical system does develop in the gulf, making land fall sometime from midweek on (as we suspect), we think this forecast can get drier as the week wears on.

Dry next Sunday through Tuesday morning. We do have a cool front working in for the afternoon of the 27^th (Tuesday) and crossing the state through the morning of the 28^th (Wednesday). This front looks to trigger .25”-1” rains with coverage at 70%. It may be followed up by another system on the 30^th with .25”-.75” potential. Both of these systems are shows to be most aggressive on the GFS model, which has had a hard time with the extended period in recent weeks. Therefore, we look to see how the 10 day period ends and how strong of ridge can form over the plains before really getting too excited about moisture in the extended window. We should be dry for July 1 and 2.

Scattered shower action tries to back into the Hoosier state from the east and southeast this afternoon. However, we still are in a strong south flow pattern, meaning we see another day of high temps and high humidity. The showers that pop up this afternoon and evening will be widely scattered, with coverage at 50% of areas from I-70 northward. Rain totals should be limited to a few tenths or less, but we have to keep an eye out for heat based thunderstorms skewing those rain totals a bit.

Tomorrow, we see showers moving through in advance of our next front. There can be some action early in the morning in far north and northeast Indiana, then better coverage action later in the afternoon and tomorrow evening state wide. Our cold front does not arrive until Thursday, so this will still be pre-frontal action, but will have better coverage than today’s action. We can expect .1”-.5” of rain over about 60% of the state tomorrow.

Thursday brings the actual frontal passage and the rain and thunderstorm action sweeps through most of the state. Rain totals of .25”-.75” will be seen over about 75% of the state. Friday should be mostly dry.

Two strong fronts move through the state this weekend. The first, for Saturday, brings .25”-1” of rain to about 80% of the state. The second, later Sunday through Sunday night, can bring .5”-1” to 90% of the state. Thunderstorms will be widespread and strong with the Sunday event. All told, this brings rain totals from now through Sunday night to 1-2.5” over about 90% of the state. The map show rain accumulation through 6 AM Monday morning

Dry Monday and Tuesday of next week, but we are seeing significant strengthening of our next system at midweek next week. For next Wednesday through early Thursday we can see 1-2.5” of rain over 80% of the state. Far southern parts of Indiana may miss out on that event. This low may still try and miss to the north, if we see a strong upper level ridge build in for early next week. So, we are not sold on this solution yet…but confidence is growing.

The extended window is mostly dry this morning. We see no major rain events or fronts sweeping in from next Thursday the 22^nd through the 27^th. Our next chance of rain may develop around the 28^th, with rain potential of .25”-1”, but only over about 30% of the state (mostly far north).

The dry extended period featuring a building upper level ridge, combined with strong high pressure to start next week gives us the idea that we may see ridging start sooner (early next week is our thought), and that may steer the midweek system next week out of our neck of the woods – hence our hedging words above. Stay tuned.

Temps through the entire rest of June look to be mostly above normal, and at their coolest, near normal. Heat likely will redevelop next week and for the extended period.

 

 

The forecast goes a little wetter as we start the week, with additional waves of moisture coming in and instability leading to slightly more rains.

We will be dry today and most of tomorrow. Temps will be well above normal today and tomorrow on strong south and southwest flow into the state. Tomorrow we do have some moisture trying to back in from the east and it will lead to cloud development in the afternoon in Northeast Indiana, and then some scattered showers tomorrow evening and overnight in areas north of I-70. We look for .25”-.5” or less with 60% coverage north of I-70.

Scattered action remains around over the state through Wednesday, but will be hit and miss through the day. Our next front, the one we have been talking about since last week, will arrive Wednesday night and move through the state Thursday. This will bring rains of .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state. Friday will be dry.

Another batch of scattered moisture is in for Saturday, with rain totals of .25”-1” over 60% of the state, but most of the state in the lower half to third of that range. Bigger rains develop for Sunday afternoon and evening. There we can see half to 2 inch rains over 90% of the state, with the potential for some strong thunderstorms. All told, this week from today through next Monday morning, we could see 1”-2.5” of rain combined over 90% of the state. There could even be some 3 inch totals in east central Indiana.

Dry Monday through Wednesday of next week with an upper level ridge forming. That continues to start the extended period with no significant frontal threat until closer ot the 26^th and 27^th. That front could have half to 1.5” rains over 80% of the state

 

No change in the short term forecast this morning. We continue to see dry weather conditions right on through the weekend and through the first half of next week. A few areas in far north and northeast Indiana will deal with clouds this morning and we will not rule out an occasional spit or sprinkle, but with the atmosphere drying out so much over the past few days, it will be difficult for any significant moisture to make it to the surface this morning. We will acknowledge the clouds through the start of the day today, but are downplaying any moisture at this time. Temps will start to work higher today, and will see significant builds through the weekend and early next week, producing 5-10 degrees above normal temps over a large part of the state. The temperature climb will come via strong southwest flow, and we think it will be rather breezy from this weekend through the first half of next week. The stronger the SW wind…the more likely we can see “blowtorch” conditions, where temps easily exceed expectations the best chance of that will be farther west over IA, SD, and even western IL…but we won’t rule it out here. That also means we have less than optimal conditions in our forecast for spraying. The heat is the kind that makes one normally think of pop up afternoon thunderstorms, but for right now, we think that action will be limited through Wednesday morning.

Our next frontal boundary continues to be reluctant to move east in a timely manner. However, we have not seen as significant of delay over the past few model runs. The front should kick off some showers in the northern part of the state overnight Wednesday night and the action continues through the day Thursday. We are putting our rain totals at .25”-.6” with coverage at 80% of the state through Thursday. At this point, we do not expect thunderstorm development and no threat of severe weather. The map above shows 24 hour precipitation totals from mid afternoon Wednesday through mid afternoon Thursday.

Lingering moisture may play a role in the forecast following that frontal passage. Friday, we should see some sun, but at this point we are hesitant to wave the “all clear” flag. We can’t rule out a shower or two with 30% statewide coverage. However, Friday will be significantly drier than Thursday in a comparative sense. Next Saturday we actually have some moisture backing back into the state from the old, dying frontal boundary off to the south and east. That will bring scattered showers yielding .05”-.3” over about 50% of the state. Obviously there will be plenty of “holes” in the coverage, and we are skewing our thoughts toward more southern and central Indiana on the Saturday wave than farther north and west.

In the extended window, models are all over the place. Consensus is trending toward an upper level ridge to start off the 11-16 day period, although we think there can be some minor moisture trapped underneath that ridge. If that is the case, we should see above normal warmth continue, with a chance of some hit and miss showers. However, then the GFS is convinced we have a strong tropical system coming through the Gulf, and it brings the system right up the Mississippi river valley and into the eastern corn belt. The Euro and others do no such thing. The GFS is notorious for screwing up and being way to “bullish” on early season tropical systems and waves…so we doubt the solution. Still, it bears mentioning, just in case you hear someone else try and talk up “good rains” late next week. We are taking a drier approach to the total 11-16 day window, looking for a third of an inch or less at this time, with coverage at 60%.