Dry weather continues. High pressure centered over the state this morning eases off to the north and east. We should see a return to strong south and southwest flow behind this high later this afternoon and tomorrow, with a big warm up coming into the weekend. There is no rain in sight through the weekend and the first half of next week. Temps will be above normal, and sunshine dominates.

The next frontal boundary to move into the state is slowing its track east once again. We still see the front coming, but now look for no serious precipitation to develop until later Wednesday afternoon and then linger through Thursday midday. Rain totals look to be .25”-.75” with coverage at 70% of the state. The longer this front delays in its move east, the less chance we have for heavy rains, as the system matures and rains itself out farther west. As a result, we see minimal chances of strong to severe weather at this time, as those chances end up playing out farther to the west and north.

Dry behind that front for the balance of Thursday, Friday and most of next Saturday. We have a system to start off the extended period for the 18^th into early the 19^th that can bring .25”-.5” rains with coverage at 70%. The pattern may try and get a little more active with models suggesting another front around the 21^st, and one the 23^rd…but these are the same models that had much more action in the extended window about a week ago, action which now as decreased in intensity and coverage dramatically. So, while we will likely be wanting some moisture toward the end of the extended pattern, at this time we will not promise any, as we are seeing a nice trend toward hotter and drier pattern through mid-month, and that would offer a lot of headwinds to flip back from into a suddenly active pattern. The above map shows potential rain totals for the next 7 days. Basically, all of this precipitation comes next Wednesday into Thursday.

 

Dry and pleasant today and tomorrow. No big news story there.

Our next system is delayed a little bit and now does not show up until Friday morning. But, rain potential holds through Sunday. Rains Friday will be mostly over the northern third of the state, sagging into the northern half late Friday afternoon. Hit and miss rains through Saturday have potential to hit all areas of the state, but will still have a predominant focus north of I-70. Rains Sunday statewide will feature another nice batch of moisture. All told, we like rains over the state at .5”-2” with coverage at 80% of the state. The northern half of the state has the best potential to get to the 2” threshold or even exceed it, while southern Indiana will be in the lower part of the range. We won’t completely throw away thoughts of a 1”-3” cumulative rain total, but think that may be overdoing it when looking at the state on the whole.

Turning drier again Monday. Clouds hold firm, but we should not see any new rain. The only other change to our forecast comes for the second half of next week. WE are dry now for next Thursday, meaning we get 5 back to back dry days Monday through Friday of next week.

In the extended period, we like a system still in and around the 10^th-12^th. The rains likely are only a 2 day event, but some models are trying to delay the system just a bit. Rain totals can be from half to 1 inch with coverage at 80% of the state. The rest of the extended window turns drier again.

Temps look to be mostly normal through the rest of this week. WE dip a bit below normal early next week with strong north flow around the backside of this weekend’s storm, but moderate temps to normal and above normal levels for the second half of next week.

 

A few changes in the forecast this morning. One has to do with intensity and track of rains this weekend, and the other with dry windows next week and in the extended period. Both of these have to be viewed as a little positive, given our wet outlook the past few days, but we question whether the overall pattern changes are positive enough.

 

Rain rotates through the state today coming around the backside of a strong low exiting the eastern corn belt. Rains can range from a few hundredths of an inch to an additional half inch today, depending on where you are. The best totals will skew toward the eastern half of the state. Coverage will be around 65%. Even in areas where there is little to no rain, clouds will be a dominant feature, and drying will not be something we see much of.

 

No new precipitation for Friday, as we still will have to contend with clouds through the day. There can be breaks in the clouds, but we find ourselves sandwiched between the exiting system to the east and the approaching moisture from the southwest. So, look at any sun tomorrow as a bonus! Temps should be near normal.

 

Rains develop and start to move into the state overnight tomorrow night and will continue into Saturday afternoon However, these showers will trend toward staying more to the south. They also do not look nearly as significant as we have seen in previous model runs. Right now, we like rain totals of .25”-.75” Saturday from I-70 southward, up to a third of an inch from I-70 northward. Coverage will be around 70%. A second wave of moisture comes in overnight Saturday night through midday Sunday, but like its predecessor, it takes a more southerly track. We can add another .25”-.5” over southern Indiana, and perhaps a quarter of an inch up north. Sundays rains have lower coverage, closer to 60%. There is a good chance that most areas north of US 24 get away with no more than a tenth or two over the weekend.

 

Monday is dry statewide. WE should see sunshine for the holiday and good evaporation. A weak upper level trough works through the northern part of the state overnight Monday night into early Tuesday, and can bring a few hundredths to a tenth or two, mostly down to US 30. The rest of the state will miss out on the moisture, but will see some clouds toward Tuesday morning and an isolated spit/sprinkle.

 

Dry for the balance of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday over the state. We should see some good drying in this period with temps normal to above normal and good sunshine. However, we wonder if the window is long enough. We feel optimistic that we might be able to add Friday to that dry pattern as we move forward, but today is not that day. We still see potential for some minor scattered showers over about 40% of the state overnight Thursday into early Friday. If that disturbance weakens or goes away, we are ready to stretch the drying into next Friday, and Saturday for that matter.

 

In the extended window, we still have a very strong system lined up for early June. We are leaving our projection of the 4^th-6^th alone at the moment. Some models are trying to push it back to the 5^th, others are not. Rain totals from that system alone can be 1-2” with coverage of 100%. We follow that up with a much smaller batch of rain for the 9^th, mostly under a third of an inch.

 

So…dry windows are larger and can even grow a bit next week (Tue-Thu ATM, perhaps through Saturday?), and we also have a slightly bigger dry window in the 11-16 forecast window. But…will it be enough?

 

Rains build in intensity today. We go from scattered showers this morning to steady light rains through afternoon and tonight. The best chance for heavier rains and thunderstorms still look to stay to the east in OH. However, the low that is bringing this action moves into and across the state tonight and is slow to leave tomorrow morning. This will likely lead to Thursday being cloudy and wet with wrap around moisture bringing more light rains. Rain totals today should be in a .25”-.75” range, and then tomorrow we can add .05”-.5” more with the backside moisture. Rains will be over almost 100% of the state. The map above shows rain totals through midnight tomorrow (Thursday) night.

Friday still should be dry, but clouds will be a big player. Breaks in the clouds will be minor at best.

Our holiday weekend still looks wet. Rains will be in for all of Saturday and Sunday. The heavier rains hit Saturday and start before sunrise. They go all through the day, ending after sunset. The rains on Sunday will be more scattered but the second wave of action is solid enough to warrant talking about. Rains Saturday will be from half to 1.5”, and rains Sunday will add another .1” to .5” in spots. Combined coverage will be around 90% of the state.

Memorial Day is dry, but rains are back in for Tuesday, mostly over the northern half of the state. This is a change in our forecast from yesterday. We have a minor front sweeping through that brings rains up to .4” from I-70 northward. We do not think there will be any rains south of I-70. The rains will have 80% coverage over the northern half of the state.

Rains on Tuesday interrupt our previously forecasted dry stretch, but we replace that now with a drier period from Wednesday the 31^st through Friday the 2^nd. WE should see plenty of sun in that period and warmer temps.

In the extended period, we have a strong system for the 4^th through the 6^th, another system the 7^th, and potentially one for the 9^th-10^th, meaning we have potential for plenty of water in the extended window (1-3 inches or so) and very little window for drying. In fact, that 3-4 day window for the 31^st through the 2^nd or 3^rd will be the best dry window we will see through the upcoming forecast period.