Author: weatherstud

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-16-17

Dry weather continues today. A warm front lifted through the state yesterday, and south flow dominates today and tomorrow. This will promote the warmest temperatures of the season so far by the time we get into tomorrow afternoon. Winds will pick up a little more than what we saw yesterday, averaging 12-25 mph, which will be great for speeding the drying along over wettest areas, but will also hinder any needed spraying yet to do for burn down.

We actually are looking for less precipitation threat through Thursday and Friday. Thursday is still likely completely dry through the daytime hours, with only clouds building in the afternoon. After sunset we can see some scattered showers develop, especially over central and southern Indiana as we move toward sunrise Friday. Moisture totals still do not look all that impressive, with most areas at .25” or less. Coverage looks to be under 40%. Through the day Friday, we can’t rule out scattered showers from I-70 southward, but at this time, northern Indiana looks to stay dry, leading to another potential field work day. South of I-70 we can see another .1”-.4” of rain over about 60% of the area. If this pattern does verify, that would point to 4 more dry days in the north, while the south gets 2.5-3 full days of dry down yet.

The weekend looks to have its own batch of precipitation to work through still. Saturday starts off slow, with nothing of any major consequence until later in the afternoon we scattered showers and thunderstorms start to develop. However, through Sunday, we see a secondary, stronger surge of moisture that brings rain and heavier thunderstorms. Two day totals will be from .5”-1.25” with coverage at 90% of the state. The biggest portion of that will be from 5PM Saturday through Sunday evening.

Dry Monday and Tuesday with decent sunshine. Then we have a stronger system for Wednesday and Thursday. It starts benignly enough, with just minor moisture developing over the state next Wednesday, the 24^th, but then strong low pressure moves in for Wednesday night and triggers moderate to heavy rains with strong thunderstorms. These may be out of the area by mid-morning Thursday, the 25^th, but still, we think that combined rain totals can be half to 1.5” with coverage at nearly 100% of the state. Right now, the heaviest thunderstorms look like they may want to fire off Wednesday evening in western Indiana, and then in northern Indiana overnight.

In the extended period, the strength of the system for the 24^th-25^th will determine how we start things off. If the storm is as strong as we fear, it may bring some wrap around clouds and lingering moisture into the state through the 26^th. However, this being a spring pattern, we think that thought process (advanced by at least 1 model) is likely to pessimistic. We prefer a drier period for Friday the 26^th and into the start of the memorial day weekend. That dry period will be threatened from time to time through the 28^th-30^th, but only by scattered showers…nothing overly well-organized at this point. However, for the 31^st into the 1^st, we see a nice low moving through the great lakes that likely brings better organized showers to the state, with rain totals of .25”-.75”.

Temps through the end of the month will be mostly normal to above. We skew those temps to the largely above normal side of the scale here short term, but think temps will try and pull back closer to normal late in the week and especially this weekend as that strong system moves through.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-15-17

Dry weather continues today through at least Wednesday. Over most of the state, we are

willing to say it continues through Friday, but there may be a hiccup or two in some areas Wednesday night and Thursday.

Today, tomorrow and Wednesday, sunshine will dominate with strong high pressure

close by. South wind flow will push temps to above normal levels statewide, and will

continue to promote drying. We should see good planting progress the next 3 days.

Wednesday night and Thursday we see some action developing over extreme southern

Indiana, mostly south of US 50. There we can see a few hundredth s of an inch to a tenth

or two, but in general, big rains are not likely. Clouds and light rains are more like it. Coverage will be about 30%. Thursday afternoon and evening we see a weak trough in

over the northern part of the state that may trigger clouds and a few hundredths to a

tenth…no more. Coverage north will be 20% or less. So…there will be some areas that

get rain, but many that don’t. That is why we really think that there will be plenty of

places that are rain free for the next 5 days.

The weekend gets interesting. Scattered light action is around for Saturday with .1-.5”

rains and coverage at 60%. But, through Saturday, we have heavy thunderstorms

developing over IL, and we will be watching very closely to see if any of those can make

it into IN. The rains west of us can be from 1-4” in parts of IL. WE do see better rain and

thunderstorms Sunday through overnight Sunday night. Rains here will be .25”-1” with coverage at 90% of the state. But right now, it looks as though we will miss the nasty

stuff out west…it falls apart before getting here.

Dry then for Monday afternoon and Tuesday of next week. We do have a minor front for

next Wednesday up north, that can bring up to a quarter of an inch over about 40% of the northern half of the state.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-10-17

A slight lull comes in over the state today in the wake of moisture yesterday. There was a big temperature discrepancy yesterday from south of the warm front to areas that stayed north of it…with a temp swing of 30 degrees or more. Today we should see the warmer air push a bit farther north, but ultimately the temps will be decided by cloud cover, and we think we could see a fair bit of clouds through the day.

gfs_tprecip_indy_11 Moisture begins to build back in over the state this evening, ramping up to a fairly wet day Thursday. Rain totals from this evening through tomorrow will be from .3”-1.25” with coverage at around 80% of the state. The higher end of the range should be limited to areas that see thunderstorms. The above map shows rain totals through midnight tomorrow night.
Friday begins a nice period of drying. We may have some morning showers in southern Indiana near the river with a few hundredths to a couple of tenths to start the day, but in general, everything is moving out as the sun comes up Friday. We finally can report some good news, as that dry trend that starts Friday looks to hold all the way through the following Friday at least. Models are trying to suggest a few scattered showers sneaking into northeast Indiana overnight Saturday night into Sunday, but we feel this is a low threat risk, and are looking for some significant drying starting this Friday afternoon. Evaporation rates will start to max out over the last part of the weekend at .25” of moisture per day, coinciding with temps break gfs_t2m_a_f_indy_30 ing out of our cool pattern and starting to move to above normal levels. In fact, we should see temps normal to well above normal as we move from early next week to the end of the week. This will speed drying and bring soil temps back up. The temperature map shows temps as they relate to normal for next Tuesday afternoon. Sunday may be a bit breezy as we get the transition going from cool to warm, but the rest of next week should be fairly calm on winds, meaning spraying should not be an issue.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-9-17

No significant changes this morning. A frontal boundary is moving into the state today and will trigger a few scattered showers. WE still like this rain developing along a line from Gary to Richmond with a 75-100 mile stretch on either side of that line being the zone with the best precipitation chances. Overall, we look for today’s rain coverage to be around 60%. Rain totals will mostly be from .1”-.5”, but we have to watch central Indiana this afternoon and evening, because thunderstorms there can boost rain totals some.

Scattered action remains over the state tomorrow and Thursday as well. Models seem to have a bias toward the central and southern parts of the state those days, but the European model is starting to bring moisture northward. For now, we will look for rains around an additional .25”-.75” over 60% of the state. We also will stick with a southern bias for now, but may have to tweak that moisture northward later today, if models move into some kind of consensus.

Drying out Friday and then remaining dry for the weekend, Monday and Tuesday of next week. We have a system for next Wednesday building in the central corn belt. It has gathered a bit of strength over previous model runs. IF it holds together, that would end our consecutive dry stretch at 5 days, but if we were to miss the action, that would allow a bigger drying window. We see dry weather back late next week through the following weekend. The next system in the extended period would arrive around early the 22^nd. That system, lingering through the 24^th, would bring rains of half to 1.5” and coverage at 100%.

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