Dry weather in today and tomorrow with high pressure passing over the state today, and south flow developing up the backside of the high tomorrow. Cooler air is in today, behind the front that passed yesterday.

Wednesday our next system moves in and it continues to bring moisture through on Thursday. However, it does not look to be as impressive and we do not have a threat of heavy thunderstorms at this time. Because of that, we are pulling precipitation totals back to a range of .25” to .5” with coverage at 70% of the state. The northern third of the state has the best potential for rains, starting sooner on Wednesday. The southern part of the state sees rain predominately Thursday, and will be likely to get smaller totals.

Dry for Friday, as the pattern gives us a clear air mass change for the end of the week. However, our next system starts to push into SW Indiana early Saturday morning, and by late in the day will have rains up to i-70. The most impressive action comes Sunday, though, as strong thunderstorms develop the low pressure center moves right over the state. The best thunderstorms may develop in east central Indiana. WE like rain totals for the 2 day period (sat-sun) at .25”-1.25”, with coverage at 80%.  However, the upper half of that range will be only for areas that see the thunderstorms, and likely will be limited to maybe 30% of the state.

Moisture may try to linger in to Monday with this system, depending on its track. It looks to have a fairly big footprint at this time, so it is not out of the question that strong wrap around action can come in next Monday. But, but Tuesday we should be dry, and look to stay dry through most of next Wednesday.

There is a chance of action moving back into the state late next Wednesday the 26^th and then for Thursday the 27^th.

 

 

A little bit of minor moisture moves into the northern part of the state today, creating a north vs. south kind of set up. From I-70 northward, we have to be on the lookout for a few hundredths of an inch of rain up to about three tenths, with coverage at 80% of the region. South of I-70, we get nothing today. This is an offshoot of a system coming out of the upper Midwest and moving across the great lakes.

 

A warm front lifts north across the state Friday, bringing scattered showers in over the northern half to third of the state, but coverage will be significantly lower than tomorrow’s action. Then we continue to see scattered showers for the Weekend, with Sunday still looking slightly better for amounts and coverage. All told, from Friday through the weekend, we will keep our combined rain estimates at .25”-75” with 70% coverage.

 

Monday and Tuesday remain dry and she should see a decent amount of sunshine. The front for midweek next week on Wednesday remains stronger this morning, with rain totals of .25”-1”. WE think there can be a few areas that could go higher in southern Indiana, if a second wave of action spill into the state overnight next Wednesday night into Thursday. Coverage of rain from that system will be at least point, 80%.

 

A final system works in late next week and straddles into the start of the extended window bringing rains of .25”-.75” with 80% coverage for late the 21^st into the 22^nd. A very powerful system also is in for the 25^th-26^th with rains up to 1 inch. However, behind that system, we see a strong high and potential for an upper level ridge to support it for the last of the month. Other models suggest colder than normal air will be in for that period, but we are not on that bandwagon yet. We think talk of a cold finish to April is overdone at this point, but are alerting you to it in case you hear someone else advancing that theory.

 

Temps for most of the upcoming period will be normal to above normal, with a large percentage of the period having high temps of 3-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

 

 

Turning drier today after strong thunderstorms moved through parts of the state yesterday and last night. This morning we may see some lingering showers over the extreme southern part of the state, but by midday we will be done with all precipitation. Clouds will try and break this afternoon. Colder air is surging into the state behind the front that passed last night, and we expect high temps today to be about 10-15 degrees cooler (or maybe a bit more in spots) than what we saw yesterday. The dry weather holds through tomorrow with high pressure directly over the state tomorrow morning. Then, on the backside of the high, we see south winds starting to moderate temps later tomorrow afternoon and that continues through Thursday. Thursday should also be dry.

 

That dry outlook for Thursday pushes our next slow moving front back a day, now slated to arrive for Friday. This will trigger rains of a few hundredths up to a third of an inch over the northern third of the state for Friday. This is a warm front, and that is why moisture just kind of breaks out over the northern part of the state and does not go much of anywhere.

 

The low that warm front attaches to passes by to the north over the weekend, and a couple of cool fronts will sweep through the state associated with it. This will bring rains to a large part of the state. We are looking at combined rains of .25”-75” with 70% coverage. The better day for rains still looks to be Saturday over Easter Sunday, but we will not call for a dry Easter yet. Thunderstorms could allow for better rains in the upper end of the range, but right now, our thunderstorm threat looks to be not too bad.

 

We are still dry for Monday and Tuesday of next week with mostly sunny skies. WE do have a strong front looking to come in for Tuesday night through Wednesday. We like rain totals here to be at .25”-1” with coverage at 80%. However to get most places into the upper end of the range, we will need more thunderstorm action. Right now, the timing of the system has most of the state getting the best moisture overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, which will limit thunderstorms to only a few areas. Then, through the day Wednesday, we see the best moisture already gone. So, timing will be very important.

 

Our look at the extended window shows no changes. WE have two systems, one around the 21^st-22^nd that brings potential for .25”-1”, and another closer to the 25^th-26^th. The second system still looks to have the best chance for heavier rains.

 

Moisture looks a little lighter this week, even though the pattern still has plenty of activity with it. Here is a quick rundown this morning.

We have a cold front that sweeps through the state later this evening and through the overnight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of that front today, we should see good south flow, warm air and some sunshine with building clouds. We may have to keep a lookout for a few scattered showers this afternoon over west central and southwest Indiana, but only minor rains spaced very sparse. However, closer to sunset, we see rains spreading over the state with rain totals through 8am tomorrow at .25-.5”, and coverage at 80%/ The higher end of the range will be reserved for areas that see thunderstorms. Shortly after sunrise, the only areas that still see some showers will be close to the OH River, and the rest of the state will be clearing. We should see sunshine tomorrow over most of the state, but with cooler temps behind the cold front.

Dry weather continues Wednesday with high pressure centered directly over the state. However, on the backside of the high on Thursday, we need to keep an eye out for a few scattered showers and clouds over the northern half of the state. Rain totals are expected to only be a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but it may be enough to wet the ground in over about 40% of the area for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday should be dry, but we think there can be some clouds building ahead of what can be a somewhat hit and miss weekend with regard to rain. We have a strong low passing by to the north for Saturday and Sunday, with two troughs working through the region. Rains do not look overly impressive, but we do have the potential for a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch both days over about 50% of the state, with combined two day coverage at about 70%. The better day may be Saturday. However, if we see better warming on Friday with stronger south flow, that would serve to enhance thunderstorms threats, which could lead to a shift in those rain totals higher…so we need to watch Friday closely.

Next week starts dry with Monday and Tuesday mostly sunny. However, a strong system works in for next Wednesday with rain totals of .25”-75” and coverage of 80%. Then, in the extended period, we have two more systems, one for the 22^nd that brings potential for .25”-1”, but a chance of the rains missing the state more to the NW, and then another system for late in the 16 day window, around the 25^th. There we can see potential of another .25”-1” of rain and more of a direct hit.

This forecast pattern is not as wet as what we saw last week, but will still not promote copious amounts of drying just yet. We may be able to see a few guys out in the dirt this week, but starting midweek next week, we likely have to put intentions on the shelf again until very late in the month.