Less windy today as we finally see the strong circulation that was to our north yesterday moving off to the northeast. However, the upcoming period still has its share of challenges to work through. Today should be mostly dry, but we see clouds moving back in later this afternoon and spreading south tonight. The best threat of precipitation from these clouds will be over the southern half of the state as we move closer to midnight. Mostly rain will be seen south of I-70, although any rain from midnight to 6 AM may try and change to snow before ending. All told, we think there is enough liquid potential to trigger a few hundredths to nearly a quarter inch of rain, and anything that ends as snow will have minor to no accumulations.

For the balance of Friday, we should be mostly dry with a minor high pressure dome trying to settle in by mid-afternoon. This will bring sunshine back to the state in a major way. However, this will also be the start of a rather tumultuous period over the state with regard to our weather from Friday night through the first half of next week. Overnight Friday clouds start to build in from the west and we see snows overspreading the southern half to third of the state through Saturday morning and midday. Snow will be minor, with a coating to an inch in the hardest hit areas. This is a far cry from what models were saying a few days ago…but still, it is snow in areas that have been very warm recently. Everything is done before sunset Saturday night. Coverage of this snow will amount to about 30% of the state in general, but perhaps as much as 70% of the southern third of the state.

Sunday looks mostly dry, but cold as the entire state starts below freezing, and only the southwestern most quarter of the state climbs above freezing through the day. On Monday, our next wave of snow overspreads the state, with a coating to 2 inches likely through Monday afternoon. We may have a reinforcing shot of cold air and moisture Monday evening, which can add another 1-3 inches from I-70 northward. All told, about 80% of the state has a chance of at least some snow on Monday, and the northern half to third of the state likely sees the biggest accumulations, with 1-4 inches possible from US 24 northward. Everything should be done, or mostly done, by Tuesday morning. The map above is cumulative snow potential, from Saturday through next Tuesday morning.

Most of the rest of the week next week is dry, and we should see temps moderate at midweek. No precipitation is anticipated from Tuesday mid-morning through Friday early afternoon. Overall, temps will go below normal this weekend, and then stay mostly normal to below normal through midweek next week. The map here shows morning low temps this Sunday morning – the coldest we will have seen in a while! A strong cold front sweeps through the state Friday afternoon and we do see rains of .25”-.75” coming through with that front. Coverage can be up to 80%.  Cooler, drier air sweeps in behind the front with temps back closer to normal.

In the extended period, we continue to see at least 1 strong front working into the state, and are keeping an eye on a second. The front we feel most confident about looks to arrive around the 19^th into the 20^th. This low pressure track is still way too far out to nail down, but currently, it looks to bring significant rains to the state with moisture potential of .25” all the way up to 1”. There can be a snow component to this frontal complex…right now it looks to be far off to the NW…but again, we need to monitor the track of the low. A second front starts to develop in the central plains and MO valley around the 23^rd. Some models take this system south of us, others shoot it northeast and put it right over central Indiana. Either way, once again we can tell the bias of the pattern is to become more active and more aggressive in the next couple of weeks.

 

 

Dry, but breezy today, with west winds dominating. We expect wind speeds to average 12-25 mph over a good chunk of the state. However, no new frontal boundary passages are expected and we should see mostly tranquil weather today and most of tomorrow.

Tomorrow night some minor precipitation moves over the southern half of the state. Liquid potential is from a few hundredths of an inch up to about a quarter of an inch. The European model tries to change rain over to snow toward the end of that period Friday morning, but we think we are looking mostly at rain. Still, it will be something to revisit tomorrow morning, as any change over would have some impact on I-70, especially east of Indianapolis.

Dry the rest of Friday into very early Saturday. The snow event expected to spread over the state for Saturday has seen the pendulum swing back the other way, from heavy snows to minor snows. This kind of swing is precisely why we don’t put out official snow totals until 48 hours in advance of the event. WE are not taking snow out of the forecast, but track of the low and available moisture are still up in the air. So, look for snow potential over at least the southern half of the state Saturday, but totals are unclear. WE actually expect the models to flip-flop back the other way again at least 1 time before settling this all out. Stay tuned. The map above is the latest GFS projection of snow accumulations through midnight Saturday…quite the change from 24 hours ago!  FLIP FLOP!

Sunday should be dry and cool over most of the state, and then we have another system passing by to the north on Monday. That triggers a little bit of light snow over the norther part of the state to start next week, but it too does not look as impressive as perhaps some model runs earlier in the week. We may even end up with a bit of mixed precipitation to start the week.

A stronger system is in for next Wednesday night and Thursday. Liquid equivalent precipitation will be from .25”-.6” with coverage at 80% of the state. However, in the northern third, there is potential for a large part of that precipitation to be snow, if cold air holds on. That kind of moisture would lead to snow accumulation rather easy, even if the snow is very wet, low ratio snow.

Behind that system we are dry to finish the week, but expect another front around the 19^th into the 20^th, and another around the 24^th. So, as we mentioned yesterday, the pattern for March looks to get more active in these coming 2 weeks, and we can see ample precipitation. The precipitation type, though, is still very much up in the air.

Rain today is associated with a strong cold front that will clear the state to the east by mid to late afternoon. Rain totals from last night through today should end up in the .25”-1” range with coverage at 90%. Behind this front, we should move into a drier, albeit cooler period.

Strong west winds continue tomorrow through early Thursday before calming some. That will lead to a pattern than feels colder as Canadian air slowly sags into the region. We do not see temps moving dramatically below normal, but they will stay close to normal through the end of the week. WE can see a few scattered light snow flakes early Friday morning into Friday midday, but not major accumulations.

Our next strong storm complex moves into the state for Saturday. The track of the low is key with this system. Cold air will already be in place, so any precipitation that moves in will likely be snow. This low tracks out of the central to northern plains. Right now, models do not have a set track they are sticking with. The European favors the heavier snow in central and southern Indiana, but other model runs want to move it across central and northern Indiana. Moisture equivalencies suggest that either way, the heaviest snows can be up to at least 4-8”, and some models are going much more *(see above. At this time, we are not going to promote the gloom and doom 12”+ totals that the GFS model is showing. But, the track of this snow matches up with where we think the higher totals may be, as of this morning’s look). We will watch this system closely, but for now, we think it will be a good bet we see significant snows somewhere in Indiana to start off the weekend. The map above is a snow total projection through Sunday morning. Again – we think the heaviest snows of this map are way overdone…and we are penciling in a top total right now of 4-8”…although our official snow projections will not be issued until Thursday morning.

We follow that wave up with another secondary batch of snow for the great lakes and northern Indiana next Monday night into Tuesday. These snows will be more concentrated in lower MI, but we have to keep the door open for some accumulations down to US 30. Coverage will be 70% in that zone. Farther south, we expect nothing. The rest of the week next week should be mostly dry, and cool, with colder air pushing in again out of Canada and the great lakes. This pattern holds through Thursday.

Next Friday, our next front moves in and will likely bring a significant warm surge with it. That triggers good rain for Friday into the weekend with totals of half to 1” and coverage of 80%. This kicks off an extended period that we expect to stay very active. WE see at least 2 more strong fronts in the 11-16 day forecast window.

Cloudy skies in over the state today as we begin to move through a somewhat damp period. Light showers will dot the state today, but moisture availability will leave a little to be desired. The result will be nothing more than a few hundredths to perhaps as much as a quarter of an inch over about 50% of the state. However this is just the beginning. Strong southwest winds will be through the entire day, bringing mild air into the region. The cold front associated with this system moves through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. This will bring rains of an additional .25”-.75” over about 80% of the state by the time we get to tomorrow evening. This will bring rain totals to upwards of an inch or more for the combined period. The rains will be leaving by late in the day. The map above shows total rains through tomorrow evening…but is likely a little overzealous in southern and southwestern IN.

Cooler air comes in behind the front, but we do not see temps really falling apart at this time. Temps ease back closer to normal, but will not go below normal in this period. We also see much drier air in for the balance of the week. Our next chance at some minor moisture comes Saturday midday and afternoon, as a few scattered rain showers move into the southern half to third of the state. There we can see up to .25” over about 30% of the region. Farther north, we can’t rule out a few snowflakes here and there, but in general, we don’t expect much. Dry again on Sunday.

Next week, we see a fairly significant low trying to pass by to the north over the great lakes region. This will produce some snows in MI and a bit of that snow potential may sneak into the northern row of counties here in Indiana sometime late Monday afternoon and Monday night. However, most of the precipitation stays at bay Monday. As the front associated with that low sweeps through, we likely see some light snow potential overnight Monday night into early Tuesday with cold air advancing in from the north. Available moisture does not look all that impressive, so we don’t look for much, but it will be interesting to watch to see what develops. Behind that front, cooler, drier air is in over the state for the balance of next week through Thursday.

In the extended window, we are watching what could be a very powerful low sweeping in for the end of next week on Friday. This is a strong low coming out of the central plains which will have plenty of available moisture streaming up out of the Gulf. This will bring potential for moderate to heavy rains and a few thunderstorms with strong south flow. We expect a short lived cold air blast behind it, but then another strong low coming out of the plains again for the 20^th. So, the pattern looks like it may get very active at mid-month, and that active pattern may try and hold through the second half of March.