Corn Belt weather:

• Rains have developed in the mid-to-lower MS River valley and will rotate around the backside of high pressure today, dragging moisture along the southern edge of the Corn Belt along and south of the OH River valley.
• They’ll see showers in southern IL, and southern IN but the bulk of the precipitation falls further south.
• A big wave of energy comes out of the plains and into the Corn Belt overnight tonight, with moisture developing over the western Corn Belt, including IL, IA, and MO.
• It comes in as light rains totaling .25-.5” to start over 60-70% of the Corn Belt through the day tomorrow, but far western locations like western IA, western MO, and western MN likely miss out.
• Tomorrow night-Wednesday, this activity blows up into lines of heavy thunderstorms moving through IL, IN, and central MO, with strong to severe weather and very heavy rains.
• Rainfall totals especially in the eastern Corn Belt will see 2-day totals of .5-2.5” possible, with 100% coverage in IL, IN, MI, and OH, plus 80% coverage in MO, 30% in IA, 20% in MN, and 50% in WI.
• The moisture will be off to the east by Wednesday afternoon-night and high pressure moves in with cooler air, bringing temps back closer to normal/slightly below on Thursday.
• Once the high is off to the east, south winds will moderate temps going into the weekend, giving dry weather Thursday-Sunday.
• The next weather system works into the Corn Belt on Monday, with low pressure over MI and a cool front stretching out of it from the south and west, leading to rain totaling .5-1.5” across the eastern Corn Belt, plus snow wraps around the top/backside in WI and MI.
• There will be a dry slot as MO and parts of IL likely miss out on the moisture.
• Another strong high pressure dome follows it in late Tuesday-Thursday, and as you look to the western part of the country, there’s nothing off to the west, which means a dry stretch going through March 10-12.
• The extended forecast shows a little action on March 14-15, but it has trouble with a big upper level ridge across the western US for most of the extended forecast period.

 

Deep South weather:

• We saw showers and thunderstorms this morning over the lower MS River valley, moving through MS, AL, and GA today but they’ll disappear before they get all the way east.
• Rain will total .25-1” but coverage will only be 30% by the time it moves into GA.
• Another front tries to sweep into the Deep South tomorrow as an offshoot of circulation further north, so the initial moisture will be heaviest in parts of KY, TN, northern MS, and northern AL.
• It’s mostly light action with .25-.5” totals, but there could be stronger thunderstorms moving into western TN and AR Tuesday night-Wednesday.
• The front does reach down to the Gulf areas, but they’ll only see .03-.25” over about 80% of the Deep South.
• Strong high pressure comes in behind it and keeps things dry Thursday-Sunday before a little precipitation comes up the backside of the high in LA Sunday night-Monday morning.
• It’s mostly scattered light showers totaling .25” to a third of an inch, with 50% coverage in LA.
• Another cold front in the Corn Belt stretches down into the Deep South, bringing rain in AR Monday afternoon, spreading east across western TN, into MS, and AL, with some of the heaviest thunderstorms developing right along the Gulf Coast Monday night-Tuesday.
• The front holds together and some of these moderate rains will sweep through the entire eastern part of the region.
• Next week’s rain totals could be a multi-day combination of .5-1.5” with coverage at 90% of the Deep South.
• Another strong high pressure dome will move in with good winds keeping things dry, with sunshine dominating from Wednesday-Friday.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Low pressure moves through the plains over the next 24 hours, bringing light precipitation to NE and South Dakota, which may be light snowfall, and some may wander into northeast CO, with coverage at 20%.
• High pressure will dominate and keep things dry in the plains through the rest of the week, from Tuesday night-Sunday, before a minor system moves through the northern plains on Sunday night in ND and northern SD, leaving a coating to 3” possible.
• The big system kicking off next week develops just outside of the plains.
• Other than the light precipitation over the next 24-36 hours, there won’t be any precipitation over the next 10-14 days.
• Temps are going to be up and down, averaging slightly above normal but they won’t run away to the upside, and there will be a few days that are a bit cooler than others.

 

Brazil:

• Most dry weather in Brazil going into the weekend, but a few scattered showers try to form over Matto Grosso late this afternoon-early tomorrow.
• Tomorrow afternoon-Sunday brings a better spread of moisture across all of Brazil, including Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and areas to the east, with totals of .25-1” and coverage at 80%.
• They’ll see the same pattern next week, Monday-Wednesday, with pop up showers and a plume of moisture bringing showers to most of Brazil through the 3 days, but it doesn’t rain constantly.
• The second half of next week, Thursday-Saturday, the moisture diminishes in coverage area with not as much moisture.
• Rain totals Monday-Wednesday will be .25-1” with covereage at 80-90%, and then Thursday-Saturday brings another .25-1” but the coverage drops to 60%.
• By the end of next weekend and into the following week, Brazil eases back into a slightly drier pattern.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above.

 

Argentina:

• Dry today in Argentina before a few showers develop south of Buenos Aires, possibly drifting into La Pampa, then moving north tomorrow into parts of BA and southern Cordoba, with amounts of .25” or less and coverage will be 40%.
• The action doesn’t go away, turning into a better rain maker on Sunday afternoon, with better organized showers in southern growing areas holding there into Monday afternoon.
• Rain totals will be .25-.75” with coverage at 80% over the southern third of Argentina.
• The moisture finally moves north Monday night-Tuesday, giving the rest of growing areas .25-.5” with 75% coverage.
• Back to mostly dry weather Wednesday and Friday, with the only moisture lingering way up north, outside of the biggest crop areas.
• The exception will be a front developing on Thursday and moving north, bringing another .5-1.5” to Argentina.
• Big time rains are a possibility in northern growing areas by Saturday, but it does look like rains they can handle, especially after the recent warm and dry weather.
• The week after next starts mostly dry over Argentina, which means they should be able to use the moisture easily.
• Temps will be cooler than normal over northern growing areas, but still remain warm in the southern growing areas until later next week, when the cooler temps spread over all of Argentina.

Corn Belt weather:

• A strong low pressure area has been responsible for a lot of rain and snow so far and will be bringing more, with the heaviest snow accumulations today will be in northeast IA, southeast MN, WI, and across MI.
• There won’t be much snow south of I-80, most of it falls to the north.
• A cold front develops out of the low presssure circulation later this afternoon and sweeps through the eastern Belt, possibly bringing strong to severe weather later today, with gusty winds and small hail the biggest threats.
• Rain totals could be .25-.75” in the eastern Corn Belt before all precipitation is done by tomorrow.
• A long tail of wraparound moisture could bring some lake effect snow tomorrow morning to northern IN and southern MI.
• Strong high pressure follows this in and bring some cold air back to the region, with temps near normal on Saturday, but strong south winds on the backside moderate temps quickly.
• Next week will be a soggy one, starting with light moisture into the southern Corn Belt on Monday morning as scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder show in MO, southern IL, western KY, and then expands into IL and IN.
• Rain totals will be .25” or less, but this is a precursor to a stronger wave moving through Tuesday afternoon/evening-Wednesday bringing .5-1.5” over 50% of the Corn Belt, with most falling east of the MS River Valley.
• An area of low pressure brings some snow to WI and upper MI but it’s not part of the bigger system bringing rain to the eastern Belt.
• Strong high pressure moves in Thursday-Friday with temps back down to normal, more typical of February than April.
• Looking at mostly light precipitation at the end of next week and into the weekend in the eastern Belt and Great Lakes, but snow/rain mix totals will be .03-.1” or less, and then it’s dry and sunny for the rest of the weekend.
• A big low moves out of the northern plains late next Sunday afternoon, bringing several inches of snow to MN and WI with strong winds.
• Behind that, most of the western US is clear, which means we settle in for several days of dry weather.
• Temps over the next 10 days will be near normal.

 

Deep South weather:

• A frontal boundary works through the Deep South late this afternoon-tomorrow, with the heaviest precipitation staying in the northern half of the region, including KY and TN.
• Rain totals will be .25-.75” up north and farther south they’re looking at hit and miss action of .1-.2” there, with coverage in the region at 60%.
• Strong high pressure parks over the Deep South by Sunday morning, knocking temps down a bit, at freezing or below down into northern AL, MS, and north GA.
• The high moves off the coast and then moisture moves up the backside, with a system on Monday-Tuesday bringing .25-1” rains to 90% of the region, and there is a possibility of strong to severe weather in eastern AL, GA, and SC.
• Another front wants to move through Wednesday afternoon-Friday, bringing heavy rains and a good chance to strong to severe thunderstorms, with totals of .5-2” and 75% coverage.
• The biggest threat of severe weather looks like TN, AL, GA, and the Carolinas.
• All of that moisture is off the coast on Thursday afternoon and high pressure is back in control and keeping things dry from late Thursday afternoon-Sunday.
• A little moisture develops off the coast on Sunday night and it does look to push northward into Monday, keeping the door open for scattered showers over 60% of the Deep South, with thunderstorms possible over FL.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Snow is still falling in NE, southeast SD, and northeast CO today, expecting another coating-2” in NE and northern KS, along with northeast CO before everything is done.
• ND and most of SD is dry up north and things are also dry to the south in the plains, including TX, OK, and southern KS.
• High pressure will then dominate the plains going through the weekend, bringing temps down dramatically from where they’ve been.
• By Sunday, south winds up the backside will moderate temps a bit.
• Next week, the plains will be a hit and miss deal as far as precipitation; for example, Sunday night-Monday will see scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern OK, northeast TX, and possibly southeast KS, totaling .25-.5”, but the rest of the plains will see nothing, with the only exception being some light snow showers Tuesday afternoon in eastern NE and southeast SD.
• Basically nothing then for Wednesday-Friday before another strong system tries to come together in the northern plains at the end of the week, diving across ND and northeast SD, bringing a coating-several inches quickly, but the rest of the plains from I-90 southward is completely dry.
• Temps will be near normal as we won’t see the bottom drop out.

Rain moved through the northern part of the state last evening through the overnight, and today we have one more lull in the action before a strong cold front sweeps through later this afternoon and tonight. That front will have the potential to trigger some strong to severe weather, and we continue to be in an enhanced threat area for severe weather development. Temps will be well above normal today, fueled by strong southwest flow ahead of the cold front. . Storms and moderate to heavy rain develops late this afternoon and evening, continuing through the midnight hour. The best threat for strong thunderstorm action is in and around sunset, with chances falling off quickly thereafter. We think small hail is the greatest threat, while others are pointing toward gusty winds. Either way, rain totals look to be from .25”-.75” out of the cold frontal passage with coverage at 80%. Much colder air comes in behind the front, but will not arrive until the moisture is actually gone with the initial frontal passage. The map above shows total precipitation through tomorrow morning. The heavy action in norther Indiana has some residual from early this morning, but also includes our concern for strong weather this afternoon.

Tomorrow, cold air overspreads most of the state, with temps at or below freezing all the way down into the southern third of the state. These will be the coldest temps in several weeks. Some moisture lingers in a wraparound pattern over the northern part of the state, and we do have winds coming down the fetch of Lake Michigan just right to trigger a little lake enhanced snow. Accumulations are not likely in most areas, but we need to keep an eye out for some minor accumulations in the norther tier counties. By Sunday, though, we still look for a quick reversal with south winds returning. That will moderate temps dramatically, and allow for significant warming through Monday and Tuesday.

Our next system still is on track for Tuesday and Wednesday. Light rains to start, but then moderate to heavy rains in for later Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain totals combined are in the half to 1.5” range and we don’t want to rule out some 2” potential. The chances for the heaviest rains and the flooding remain over central and southern Indiana.

Dry by next Thursday and that dryness holds through most of the rest of the week. However, we can’t rule out a few scattered little showers (rain south, light snow north) on Friday. The upper level wave is highly unorganized…so we don’t expect it to really turn into anything significant.

Temps from late next week through the following weekend remain mostly normal to slightly above. We see no major below normal cold snaps in the 10 day window. But, we do harbor some concern still for later on in March (see our prior day’s discussion).