Brazil:

• Scattered, heat based showers and thunderstorms keep popping up in Matto Grosso and up into northern Brazil over the next several days, but not much to the south, including Matto Grosso do Sul, southern Goias, Minas Gerais, and areas southward don’t see any moisture today-Thursday.
• Better moisture tries to develo on Friday in Matto Grosso through Parana and Sao Paulo, bringing .5-1” of rain with 75% coverage in those areas, but that moisture doesn’t hold together as it moves further north, with just scattered hit and miss action up there through the weekend.
• If you combine everything from Friday through the middle of next week, cumulative totals will be between 1-2”, which means there will be some dry weather and harvesting opportunities in there, and Matto Grosso will be the only area that’ll need to dodge showers more frequently.
• Wednesday-Friday of next week will see some stalled out, frontal boundary action from Matto Grosso through southeast Minas Gerais, with showers and thunderstorms combining to give at least 1” of moisture from Thursday-next Saturday, with coverage at 75% of Brazil’s crop areas.
• Timely moisture will be coming through but harvest should continue to ramp up, especially this week as there will be a slight increase in shower frequencies next week.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above.

Argentina:

• A few scattered light showers are trying to hold on in northern growing areas this afternoon yet, totaling .25-.5” of additional precipitation.
• Thunderstorms move into the far northern reaches on Wednesday, outside of the biggest crop areas in the country.
• The rest of the country stays dry through a good chunk of this week, with no significant moisture until Sunday in southern Argentina.
• Thunderstorms develop in southern Buenos Aires province through La Pampa on Sunday morning, and then lifts north, bringing rain through Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe, through most of Cordoba.
• Moisture totals will be .25-1” with 75-80% coverage in those specific areas.
• Next week, that moisture falls apart as it moves further north, bringing .25” or less on Monday-Tuesday in central/northern Argentina.
• Dry then through the rest of next week, with a few scattered showers at midweek in central Argentina, but they go away quickly, totaling .25-1/3” and coverage at only 40%.
• Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 10 days. We have heard some talk about concern on heat. We do not share that concern…if areas are too wet, you want some above normal temps to speed the drying.
• In any case, while we are calling for above normal temps, we do not look for damaging heat.
• Dry windows mixed in with rains should allow crops to have a good period of growth and development, especially after weekend rains weren’t as heavy as some were expecting.

Ukraine/FSU/Black Sea weather:

• Precipitation is moving in from the west, moving through Ukraine and central Russia today-tomorrow, with liquid equivalent of .25-1/3”, with 80% coverage as it’s mostly a rain/snow mix.
• Another mositure push will follow it in late tomorrow night-Thursday, bringing another .03-.25” with 80% coverage in Ukraine, with slightly less coverage in central Russia.
• They’re seeing good moisture coming through with temps normal to slightly above normal this week, and that second wave will mostly fall as liquid with 32 degree and above temps over most of the area.
• Another strong low moves out of Europe and across Russia, taking a more northern track on Friday, missing a good part of growing areas in Russia and the Black Sea region.
• More moisture moves into Ukraine on Saturday, totaling .25-1/3” again as a mix of rain/snow, and centered on eastern parts of Ukraine before moving into central Russia, so we’re looking at systems every couple of days this week before taking a bit of a break next week.
• A monster high sets up over the northern part of central Russia, keeping things dry next week from Monday-Friday, bringing cold air in to start, but on the backside of the high, south wind flow will bump temps up dramatically across Ukraine and most of Russia by the end of next week.
• Light moisture out of eastern Europe could move into Ukraine and central/southern Russia late next Friday-Saturday if it can hold together.

Corn Belt weather:

• A cool front is working across the eastern Corn Belt today, bringin moisture with it that’s dissipating as it moves further east, so from here on there won’t be more than .03-.2” of moisture.
• We will see slightly cooler temps behind the front from Wednesday-Thursday but it will still be well above normal over the entire Corn Belt.
• The next weather system kicks out of the central plains on Thursday and heads northeast, dragging moisture into IA on Thursday evening before lifting into the northern half of the Corn Belt overnight Thursday night-Friday.
• It brings significant moisture and significant snow into the Upper Midwest, with the heaviest precipitation from midnight Thursday night-Friday morning to be north of I-80.
• They’ll see strong thunderstorms in IL, into lower MI, with strong snow in lower WI, lower MN, and possibly just into northern IA.
• The low heads northeast, so the rest of the Corn Belt will see gusty winds and warm weather until a cool front coming out of the low late Friday afternoon brings showers and some thunder as well from Friday night-early Saturday.
• Totals will be .25-.75” with 60% coverage across eastern IL, IN, and OH, with the action moving out quickly and gone by midday on Saturday.
• There could be some lake-effect snow on Saturday in northern IN, MI, and northeast IL, and sunshine everywhere else.
• Strong high pressure moves into the Corn Belt Saturday night and holds through Sunday, with north winds keeping it cool along the eastern edge of the high through Sunday, but south winds up the backside start to warm the western Corn Belt by Sunday afternoon.
• Early next week, another weather system tries to move in out of the plains, bringing moisture through western/central Corn Belt overnight Monday night-Tuesday, with totals of only .25-.5” maximum.
• There’s a possibility of more waves of moisture from Tuesday night-Wednesday with the way the low is setting up, so there’s a possibility of combined moisture totals Tuesday-Wednesday of .5-1.5” of rain with 75% coverage in the Corn Belt.
• Areas that may get missed out include MN, WI, and parts of IA; there will be heavy rains in MO, IL, IN, and parts of OH, so the longer the system draws out with waves of action moving in, the higher the totals will be.
• Dry high pressure will follow that up toward the end of next week, March 1-2, with the potential for another system out toward the end of the 10-day forecast, between March 5-7.

Deep South weather:

• A cluster of thunderstorms is moving through AR, LA, and the western Deep South today, pushing through the central and eastern parts of the region tomorrow, with totals of .5-1.5” and coverage at 80% of the region.
• The low drifts a bit south so places like VA, NC, and SC, might miss out on the best precipitation totals.
• Dry weather moves in for the balance of Thursday-Friday, before a low pressure area to the north pushes a cold front into KY and TN Friday night-Saturday, bringing moisture to 30% of the region, which means a large part of the Deep South stays dry over the weekend.
• Strong high pressure sits over the region on Sunday morning, holding through Monday, before moisture moves up the backside of the high in western parts of the region Monday night-Tuesday, including AR and northwest LA, where they’ll see scattered showers.
• A better flow of moisture moves in Tuesday night-Wednesday, with AR getting heavy thunderstorms on Wednesday and hitting northern LA as well, but the main focal point of the precipitation will be along the OH River valley.
• A strong front will sweep across the rest of the Deep South on Thursday, with bands of strong to severe weather possible as rain totals look like .5-2” with 90% coverage of the region once this front picks up steam.
• The moisture is gone by sunrise on Friday morning with sunshine and blue sky through next weekend.

Great Plains weather:

• Dry weather in play for the next couple of days in the plains, but by Thursday, low pressure comes together in eastern CO, with a snow event breaking out in WY, NE, southern SD, and northwest KS.
• Snow totals will be between 3-8” in NE, southern SD, and WY; 1-4” possible in northeast CO, and 1-3” in northwest KS.
• There won’t be moisture anywhere else with ND and northern SD staying dry the rest of the week, and I-70 southward will stay dry as well.
• The entire plains will be dry this weekend with high pressure in control, as strong north winds on the front side of the high keep it cooler on Saturday, then south winds up the backside of the high moderate temps already on Sunday.
• Light rain circulates around low pressure Monday night-Tuesday totaling .03-.25” maximum with coverage at 30% of the plains.
• Later next week, another low pressure area comes together in the Four Corners region and moves east, setting moisture up for next weekend.
• March 4-5, scattered light rain showers and some snow are possible if cold air can move in, but it won’t hit the entirety of the plains.
• For example, there will be some scattered light precipitation in ND on Wednesday, light rain in southeast OK/northeast TX Tuesday night-Wednesday, and that hit and miss kind of pattern continues through the forecast period, keeping the plains on the drier side.

Corn Belt weather:

• Well above normal temps will be the main story in the Corn Belt this weekend/early next week.
• Temps will be 20-25 degrees above normal over the entire Corn Belt, with the warmest air over western IL, IA, southern WI, and southern MN.
• South winds are fueling the warmup and 50-60-degree temps are likely.
• The next round of moisture kicks out of the central plains overnight Sunday night-Monday, bringing moisture to the western Corn Belt on Monday, totaling .25-.5” with 70% coverage in areas west of the MS River.
• As the low lifts more north and east, it pulls apart, so there should be .03-.5” possible in MI on Tuesday-Wednesday, but IN, eastern IL, and areas near the OH River may not see more than a few hundredths to a third of an inch, with coverage at 40-50%.
• Although temps will be cooler than what we see this weekend, they’ll still be above normal.
• Dry and sunny on Wednesday-Thursday before a big low moves out of the Rockies and central plains, tracking from northeast CO, across NE on Thursday night-Friday, and then works into southern IA Friday-Saturday.
• A big amount of snow will fall across the top of the low with cold air coming in, so snowfall will be heavy in MN, WI, northern IA, southern WI, northern IL, will all see some snow.
• Some rain will mix in there as well, so snowfall amounts will depend on where the cold air line sets up, but we’ll say it’s predominantly snow from I-80 northward.
• The low tracks across IA and hits the IL/WI line by Friday night-early Saturday, continuing to put down heavy snow in the Upper Midwest, with MN and WI in the bullseye for some of the heaviest snow.
• Winds will average 20-40 MPH on the top/backside of the system so blowing and drifting snow will be a problem.
• Rains fall in southern MI/IN on Friday night-Saturday, totaling .25-.5”, and they won’t see snow primarily because the low is lifting more north than east.
• Cold air does follow the system into the region, spreading from the west into the eastern Corn Belt on Saturday, with below normal temps for about 12 hours before they try to moderate as the freezing line heads back north and most of the Corn Belt returns to above normal.
• Watching a couple of potential systems moving into the Corn Belt March 1-2 and another on March 7-8.

Deep South weather:

• High pressure sitting just off the coastline is keeping the region clear, but there will be some moisture coming up the backside of the high over the Gulf of Mexico during the overnight/through tomorrow.
• Some of the moisture will try to come ashore in parts of LA, as well as the FL panhandle, then over the rest of the peninsula tomorrow night-Sunday, they’ll see some rain/thunderstorms there.
• Otherwise, the Deep South looks mostly dry through the weekend and that’ll continue through early Monday morning.
• A line of rain/thunderstorms move into the western part of the region by midday on Monday, with AR and LA picking up some heavy thunderstorm action Monday afternoon, with rain totals of 1-1.5” with 90% coverage west of the MS River.
• The action then slowly works eastward overnight Monday night-Tuesday, sitting over AL on Tuesday evening, moving east on Wednesday and diminishing in intensity during the day.
• Totals over the rest of the Deep South look like .5-1.5” with 60% coverage.
• Areas like NC, SC, and eastern GA have the best chance of missing out on the rain.
• Wednesday-Thursday look like a drier setup before a cool front that’s an offshoot from the big low in the Corn Belt moves through next Friday-Sunday.
• It may be worth .25-.5” of moisture with 70% coverage.
• Cold air pushes in on Sunday morning, Feb 26, but temps ease up quickly as high pressure dominates through the rest of the 10-day period.

Great Plains weather:

• Calm and tranquil weather through today and a good chunk of the weekend before moisture begins to come together in the Four Corners region on Sunday night-Monday, leading to scattered showers across TX, OK, and central KS.
• Totals will be .25-1”, with the higher amounts in TX and OK, and coverage will be 30% of TX, 80% of OK, but only 40% of KS.
• They’ll see moisture from a low pressure area kick off in ND and SD on Monday, bringing rains of .25-.5” with a few sprinkles possible down in NE.
• The plains then dry out Tuesday-early Thursday.
• That monster low moves out of the Rockies and into the central plains on Thursday afternoon, moving from northeast CO into south central NE by Thursday night.
• Heavy snows break out on the topside of the low, where SD will heavy snow by late Thursday afternoon and it continues into Saturday.
• SD is in line to pick up the heaviest snow with NE in second place, with 20-40 MPH winds combining with 8-10” of snow or more.
• Keep in mind, this is a week out so don’t take my snow totals as gospel just yet, we’re trying to draw attention to a serious snow event by the end of next week.
• The low finally kicks out north and east on Friday night-Saturday when the low moves over the IL/WI line, but there will still be wraparound snow in southeast SD and eastern NE, but snow finally should be done by midday Saturday.
• A cold high pressure dome comes in behind it, pushing temps back closer to normal, even a bit below, for a couple of days, but south winds will start to push temps back up later next weekend.
• Another strong system is possible for March 1-2 and again on March 6-7.