We started to see some warming over the state yesterday, especially over the southern half of the state. Strong southwest flow over the state today should push temps higher. In fact, we expect temps to be well above normal today through the weekend and into early next week. This all comes with mostly sunny skies and no rain. We may have to keep an eye out for a renegade shower or two over the southern half of the state Saturday, but really, we think chances are minor, and the best rains will stay south of the OH river.

The next system we have been touting continues to erode, and now stands to bring us next to nothing. We won’t completely remove moisture yet for next Tuesday into Wednesday, but coverage in our forecast drops to 40% and totals stay at a few hundredths to no more than a third of an inch. The best outbreak of scattered showers may actually push back into Wednesday morning.

Cloudy and slightly cooler conditions move in for the Thursday next week. With that kind of set up, we may have to allow for a few more scattered showers from time to time over the state, particularly the northern half of the state, just due to the fact that cooler air has trouble holding as much moisture, and we will have an atmosphere that is pretty heavy with moisture. Combine that with a warm front pushing north, and there is a recipe for a little bit of action. Still, we don’t look for a lot of rain potential. Rain totals will mostly be a few hundredths to a tenth or two spread out over the Thursday night Friday morning time frame, mostly from US 24 northward.

A stronger cold front sweeps through Friday night into Saturday. We look for some moderate to heavy rains as this front comes through, with rain totals of .25”-1” over 100% of the state. Timing will be important, as thunderstorms can develop with just the right set up. Behind the front, cooler air comes in again briefly.

In the extended period, we still have a nice storm complex coming in for the first into the 2^nd. This likely brings all liquid on its current trajectory, and will lead to rains of .25”-1”. The recent trend of getting cooler for a day or two following a strong frontal passage will continue, with colder air in for the 3^rd and 4th. However, there does not look to be any threat of that cool push holding any longer. Another strong low is developing in the central Rockies and plains around the end of the 16-day window, and means we likely see another good push of precipitation around the 7^th and 8^th, perhaps sooner.

 

 

An unchanged weather look for the short term this morning. Warm air begins to work into the state today, although we really won’t feel significant changes to temps to the upside until tomorrow and the weekend. Temps will be well above normal this weekend and into early next week, averaging in the 50s and 60s for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Southwest winds will fuel the warm up. Sunshine and blue sky will dominate. We have a completely dry finish to the week and weekend in store. The map above shows Sunday high temps, averaging 20-30 degrees above normal for Feb 19!

Our next system for next Tuesday is on the verge of fizzling out. The strong low that moves into the western Corn Belt Monday lifts northeast, and its leading edge cold front that comes through is showing dramatically less moisture. We like our best rains Tuesday into early Wednesday, but now look for only a few hundredths to perhaps a third of an inch over no more than 60% of the state. That front will bring some moisture, but not much. However, it still brings a significant air mass change with as temps should drop behind the cold front Wednesday.

Cooler air holds through Thursday, but winds change to the south by late Thursday night ahead of our next system. A strong front and low pressure center move through the state for next Friday into Saturday. Rains at first with the warm front will be a few hundredths to perhaps a quarter of an inch to start off Friday. But, as the cold front comes in later Friday afternoon and Friday night, we see moderate to heavy rains in over the region. We look for combined rain totals next Friday and Friday night to be from .25”-1” with coverage at 100% of the state. The afternoon and evening rains in particular will be significant, and we can’t rule out thunderstorms.

Colder air follows the front in again to start the extended period, but we are not going to be much below normal at all. We have a weak front for the 1^st into the 2^nd of March with rains that can be upwards of half an inch. However models suggest there may be a second system splitting off and moving slower that brings additional rain for the 3^rd. So, overall, we are leaving our combined moisture totals for the extended period alone…half to 1 inch over about 80% of the state. But, the timing and duration are still up in the air at this time…with a system that we originally saw as a 1-1.5 day event now potentially stretching to 3 days. Colder air may be in play for that system, and even if it does not come in in time to affect precipitation type for the 2^nd and 3^rd, we do see temps pulling back for the period following that system’s exit.

 

Brazil:

• Significant moisture is over northeast Brazil today-tomorrow, with rains totaling .5-2” across Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and into Goias, which have been some of the driest areas in the country.
• Tomorrow afternoon-night, the moisture builds back west into eastern Matto Grosso, then spreading over the northern half of Brazil’s corn and soybean growing areas.
• By the time we hit Monday, it’s centered over the top of Matto Grosso with .5-2” totals there, plus there’s a nice batch of moisture over southeast Brazil Sunday night-Tuesday totaling .5-1.5” and 100% coverage.
• Drier air then moves in over the east/northeast areas first and into south/southeast Brazil next on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday, which should allow the ground to use that moisture that falls ahead of the dry weather.
• There may be some scattered leftover showers in Matto Grosso Wednesday-Thursday, but Thursday afternoon-early Saturday things should dry out, which means harvest and second crop corn planting should be able to ramp up and go all out.
• Southeast Brazil will see moisture on Feb 20, totaling another .5-1.5” rains before spreading to the north and east.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above with no major heat now, with temps in the 11-16-day forecast going below normal in the northeast.

Argentina:

• Moderate to heavy rains over the northern quarter of growing areas today-tomorrow, with totals in some areas approaching 2-4” but those amounts stay north of the most productive growing areas.
• The moisture will linger into tomorrow-Sunday with a strong circulation, and some areas like northern Santa Fe and Chaco will see heavy moisture Saturday night-Sunday, but it should stay out of most areas that were hit hard by heavy rains weeks ago.
• Sunday night-Monday, some of the moisture moves into Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires totaling .5-1.5” there, but the low never really goes away.
• It wobbles into BA on Monday night-Tuesday, bringing another .5-1” there before it’s done.
• Once the moisture is finally done, we should see a dry period over a good chunk of Argentina through the middle of next week before the next round of precipitation over the northern third of growing areas on Thursday afternoon.
• Rain totals will be .25-1.25” of moisture with 60-70% coverage and that moisture kind of lingers through the rest of next week over northeast Argentina before moving into Uruguay and south/southeast Brazil.
• Over the next ten days, the heaviest moisture looks to fall in the northern third of the country, with the southern third not seeing a lot of action outside of scattered showers in BA, with the central third of the country seeing some action but not as much as they do in the north.
• Temps will depend on where the moisture is falling; for example, temps look colder than normal, especially in the northern part of the country where rain is falling the heaviest, but warm air will push up from the south next week but temps are still below normal in the northern half of the country.
• Temps should try to move back above normal late next week, with the above and below normal temps battling for control again into the weekend.

Ukraine/Russia/Black sea weather:

• No moisture in the short term as Ukraine is completely dry today and into the weekend, with temps normal to above through the weekend.
• A cool front will slide southward on Monday, bringing light snow to northern Ukraine and into central Russia with mostly minor amounts.
• This will also draw down colder Siberian air into the region.
• A low over the Black Sea Monday night-Tuesday will try to throw moisture into central and southern regions in Russia.
• Nothing major for the rest of next week as strong high pressure parks over central Ukraine on Thursday-Friday, bringing down another round of bitter cold air, which will then moderate by the weekend with strong south winds.
• Precipitation looks below normal for most of the FSU.

Corn Belt weather:

• Strong high pressure has moved off to the south and east and strong south winds are moving into the Corn Belt, allowing temps to rise dramatically.
• It’s a major warmup, with yesterday’s highs in the teens to 30’s, while today’s highs will be in the 40’s-50’s, with some 60-degree weather possible depending on location.
• The serious warmup will hold into Saturday morning with no major weather issues moving in until tomorrow afternoon in the west and Sunday in the east.
• Low pressure will start in ND and moves into northern MN, moving south/southeast with the front dragging through the western Corn Belt, and that’s where the moisture develops.
• The best moisture totals hold off until Sunday/Sunday night, when the front is over southern IL, IN, and OH, but still totals only .03-.2” of moisture in IN and OH.
• The rest of next week in the Corn Belt looks calm and tranquil with no major weather issues.
• The only real activity might be a clipper system that moves from northern MN, through WI, and into MI next Wednesday, but it doesn’t have a direct impact on the Corn Belt.
• The next big weather system that directly impacts the Corn Belt may hold off until Feb 20-21, with moisture coming together in southern MN and western IA and bringing good moisture totals on the 22-23 as temps will be above normal to start and potentially pull down behind it.
• Temps are the main story, especially in the short term, but still above normal through next week.

 

Deep South weather:

• High pressure is moving away today-tomorrow, and keeps most of the region dry yet, with the potential for widely scattered showers in the western and northern parts of the region Saturday night-Sunday, but only totaling .03-.1” maximum and 30% coverage across LA, AR, MS, western TN, and KY.
• High pressure is back Monday-Tuesday, but at the same time there is a serious collection of moisture developing in TX and OK, and will move east into the region Tuesday night-Wednesday.
• Strong low pressure circulation moves across southern LA and over the southern half of the Deep South Wednesday-early Thursday, picking up moisture off the Gulf.
• Rainfall will total .25-1.5” with the heaviest rains in MS, LA, and AR, with the lower end of the range from AL eastward.
• That low moves up the east coast, bringing moisture to NC, SC, and VA, before it turns into a massive snowmaker in parts of New England.
• Cold air will dive south after the system moves out, reaching down to Atlanta, Columbia, and close to Montgomery, AL.
• The pattern is mostly dry at the end of next week.
• The next round of precipitation to watch for is on Feb 21-22 as moisture comes together in east TX.
• Temps are above normal in the short term, but next week will be a roller coaster, going normal to slightly below as that moisture moves through, and then the cold air incursion as it moves away, followed by strong south winds that bring temps right back up again.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Gusty south winds are shooting temps well above normal today, with 80s possible in KS, OK, and the TX panhandle, with temps well above normal all the way into ND and SD, where they’ll see highs near 45 degrees in ND.
• A frontal boundary will be trying to move through over the weekend but it doesn’t do a whole lot except bring temps back closer to normal by Sunday.
• The moisture they may see in CO, NM, TX, OK panhandle, southwest KS, will be very minor on Sunday, totaling .03-.15” maximum with 30% coverage in the plains.
• A strong Canadian high pressure dome pushing into the northern and central plains on Sunday night-Monday, taking temps back down, but then temps rebound quickly, as temps are back near normal for the rest of the week.
• From the KS/OK border northward, we see no precipitation all week, with sunny and dry weather.
• There will be a significant batch of rain coming together in NM, TX, and OK, on Monday-Tuesday, bringing .5-1.5” totals to the southern plains before moving into the Deep South.
• TX and OK begin to dry out Wednesday-Friday of next week after the moisture moves away.
• The next big weather system develops out west around Feb 20-21, with moisture coming together around a low in CO; time will tell, but the third week of Feb could get more active.