Corn Belt weather:

• Light snow is moving across the eastern Corn Belt today, with snow moving out of IA, across IL, and IN, leaving a coating-3” in spots.
• It’s a fairly minor event along the leading edge of strong cold high pressure coming into the region.
• High pressure will work across the Corn Belt for the following three days and as it moves east on Friday, strong winds shift back to the south and temps will rise dramatically.
• The next weather system doesn’t move in until Sunday, with low pressure over IL in the morning, bringing snow to WI and northern MI, and rain in IN, lower MI, and parts of OH, but there is a dry slot through part of IL.
• It turns into a much bigger rain even over the rest of Sunday, where OH could see moderate to heavy rains, but overall, it hits 40% of the Corn Belt.
• Another strong high pressure dome moves in after that on Monday-Tuesday, centered a little farther south over the OH River valley.
• There won’t be any serious weather systems moving through next week, and with the only serious precipitation sticking in the Deep South, Monday-Saturday could be dry.
• There may be a clipper system moving out of Canada into the Great Lakes, which could affect WI, MI, and northeast OH from Thursday-Friday.
• Temps will be fluctuating, warm then cooling off, then warm before another strong Canadian high moves in next week, so temps in the early forecast are normal to above and then normal to slightly below over the second half of the ten-day forecast.
• We aren’t done with cold weather yet even though we really haven’t seen a long stretch of winterlike temps.

 

Deep South weather:

• Thunderstorms are still moving across the eastern part of the region, including NC, SC, and GA.
• Another batch of light rains will move through KY, TN, NC, and SC, through tomorrow.
• Rain totals over the next 48 hours will be .5-1.25” with 70% coverage in the eastern half of the region.
• A strong surface high then parks over the region on Thursday night-Friday, cooling temps briefly before strong south winds take temps back up well above normal by the weekend.
• The next round of precipitation develops on Sunday night in AR, western TN, KY, and northern MS, with a line of showers along an old frontal boundary totaling .25-.75” with 75% coverage from the MS River westward and 30% coverage to the east.
• A lot of moisture comes together in TX on Monday-Tuesday, moving into AR and LA before slowly moving across the rest of the region Tuesday-Thursday and leaving behind good rainfall amounts.
• Colder high pressure moves in to dry things out for the rest of next week on Friday-Sunday, bringing cooler than normal temps.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Snow is leaving NE and SD this morning and a mostly dry pattern is emerging through the balance of this week.
• High pressure is in control from this afternoon-Friday, then strong south winds start up behind it and really warm the plains up quickly, with high temps pushing into the 40s.
• A system begins to move through on Saturday with cold air pushing back into the northern plains and possibly mixed precipitation in SD, NE, southeast WY, and northeast CO, with moisture equivalent at 1/3” in those areas.
• It’s short lived on Saturday night-early Sunday, and then high pressure pushes back in Sunday afternoon.
• That high pressure will be in control for most of next week and keep things dry, with the exception being TX.
• Moisture circulates in TX Monday-Tuesday, totaling .25-.75” with 60% coverage; the panhandle will likely miss out.
• There aren’t any strong systems in the western US so things look very calm in the upcoming forecast and it may be closer to the end of the month before the next system develops.

Much colder air races into the state today. We should start the day with temps in the 30s, but slowly fall into and through the 20s…or at the very least stay steady. A secondary plume of moisture ahead of our approaching high pressure dome does push into the state today. This moisture comes right into the cold air mass, and will trigger snow. 24 hours ago we were looking for this moisture to stay farther south, but is has lifted somewhat, enough to put the best snows over the northern half of the state, rather than the central third. Accumulations still don’t look to be any more than a coating to an inch or two in most area, and may end up peaking out along the US 24 corridor. Coverage will be about 45-50% of the state at best. Clouds will be seen all the way through southern Indiana, and we can’t rule out flurries down south…but nothing overly dramatic. The closer you get to the river, the better chance of just seeing spits, sprinkles or drizzle. The map above shows snow potential from mid morning through 7 PM this evening.

Dry weather is in for tomorrow through Saturday, as high pressure works through the state. The coldest air of the week will be in tomorrow as that high draws in cold Canadian air. But, as the high moves east as get a big, quick rebound with strong southwest winds developing Friday midday/afternoon and holding into the start of the weekend. We should see most of the state in the 40s and 50s again by the weekend.

Scattered showers work through the state Saturday night into Sunday with a warm front, and then a cold front sweeps through from the NW Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. All told, we expect .25”-.5” rain totals over about 80% of the state for the second half of the weekend. Temps pull back behind the front for Sunday night.

Dry and cold for Monday and Tuesday, but then temps moderate back to normal and above normal levels for the second half of next week. Models are still undecided on the potential of a strong system for next Thursday. After several runs keeping a strong circulation in for the state in that time frame, this morning, mysteriously it is completely gone…with no hint of is existence. We are not changing our forecast this morning based on one model run, but the larger picture shows a flow pattern emerging that may make it difficult for any strong low to be able to maintain organization. There is a strong high pressure dome trying to emerge over FL and the Gulf of Mexico late next week…that that would rob any system of a moisture source…so we anticipate having to decrease our moisture look for the second half of next week tomorrow (or even later today) when we get a couple of different looks at the setup from other models and subsequent model runs.  Stay tuned.

The extended period still features only one front for the period around the 20^th, with rain potential of half to 1 inch. However, temps look warmer than normal for the extended window, meaning we likely do see rains out of that system for Presidents Day.

Brazil:

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the north and east today, bringing moisture to Minas Gerais and Bahia today-tomorrow.
• Totals in the northeast over the next 2-3 days will add up to 1-3” with coverage at 70%.
• The moisture will spread on Wednesday over central/northern Brazil, including Matto Grosso to Goias and into Bahia, totaling 1-1.25” with 80% coverage.
• Most of the precipitation will be in the north this week, with the south not seeing as much moisture this week, with only a few pop up showers and thunderstorms.
• A significant frontal complex moves through this weekend into southern Brazil, including Matto Grosso do Sul Saturday, and lifting north and east through Sunday, bringing significant rains to Matto Grosso through Parana.
• It gives moisture totals of .5-2” across south/southeast Brazil Saturday-Sunday, with 90-100% coverage in Matto Grosso Sunday-Monday, before moving into Goias and northeast Brazil.
• It’s a slow-moving system that’ll bring good rains to all of Brazil, so any second-crop corn going in should get some nice rains to start it off.
• Tuesday-Thursday gets stormier over Matto Grosso and Goias, as thunderstorms fire off across an old frontal boundary, and the potential is there for excessively wet weather Tuesday-Wednesday, adding another 1-3” but it should be out of all crop areas by midday on Thursday.
• Brazil dries out Thursday afternoon-Saturday, allowing crops to use the moisture from earlier in the week.
• Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Argentina:

• Dry today as high pressure sits over the top of Argentina and be in control for several days, although as it shifts off the coast there could be moisture sneaking up the backside and into southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
• Totals will only be .1-.3” where it does fall and coverage will be no more than 30%.
• If the moisture can take root, it could spawn better showers on Thursday in Cordoba, which models are suggesting but the front doesn’t look spectacular to me right now.
• It turns into a much better moisture producer farther north on Thursday night-Friday, with the northern half of the country getting .5-1.5” rains, with coverage at 75-80% of that northern half of the country, although the heaviest rains will be further north out of most crop areas.
• Moisture circulating around another low moves into BA this weekend, along with southern Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, giving another 1” of rain Saturday night-Sunday.
• I see 1” totals now, but if it sits there for a while, the totals could become problematic for areas that have seen too much rain already, with potential to throw rains into BA from Sunday night-Tuesday even as it moves offshore.
• The rest of Argentina looks completely dry next week, which may not be good news for some of the drier areas of the country.
• Temps look slightly above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea/Russia weather:

• Gusty winds continue to howl over the entire region through tomorrow.
• Cold air from the north is trying to move down from the north, staying mostly in Russia and just north of Ukraine today.
• Light snows will break out over Ukraine this afternoon totaling a coating-2” as there isn’t a lot of moisture to work with.
• Later this afternoon through overnight hours, 2-4” of snow may fall in western Ukraine.
• The snow moves away tomorrow and the region breaks into a cold pattern, with temps at freezing or below from the Black Sea northward.
• Below zero temps are possible in western Ukraine, but in Russia’s southern region it stays above freezing through later this week.
• A strong high pressure dome settles in over central Russia at the end of the week-into the weekend, keeping most of the area dry, and that dryness holds through most of next week.
• A cool front sags southward into the region on Tuesday but it won’t have any moisture left to work with when it gets to the region.
• Temps will try to moderate over the second half of next week, getting above freezing in a lot of areas.
• Temps will be normal to below this week and normal to above next week.

Corn Belt weather:

• A soggy morning so far in the eastern Corn Belt with significant rains falling in IL, IN, OH, lower MI, and parts of WI.
• The precipitation is fueled by strong south winds which are raising temps well above normal in IN, IL, and OH, even bringing strong to severe weather in IL, MO
• Cold air is advancing quickly, which will change rain over to snow in parts of WI, northern IL, and MI through this afternoon, with all precipitation done by the overnight hours.
• Behind the system, strong north winds draw cold air down from Canada, which will run into warmer air in the plains and cause some snow to fall in IA tomorrow morning, along with northern MO, IL, and IN.
• The western Corn Belt may see a coating-2”, and the eastern Corn Belt could see a coating-1” as it loses steam the further east it goes, with coverage at 30%.
• High pressure is in control of the Corn Belt from Thursday-Saturday and as it moves east, we’ll see strong south winds on the backside, moderating temps dramatically from Friday afternoon-Saturday.
• Another low pressure area comes together Saturday afternoon-Sunday, kicking up rain showers in IL, IN, OH, IA, southern MN, and WI.
• Precipitation totals will be .4-.5” with 50% coverage in the Corn Belt, with the best precipitation totals in WI, MI, IN, IL, and through the Great Lakes region on Sunday morning.
• There will be cold air to the north of that, so some snow may fall in northern MI and northern WI.
• Another strong high pressure dome moves in early next week, Monday-Wednesday, but there will be moisture moving up into the MO valley on Tuesday night before moving into the Corn Belt next Wednesday.
• The track of the low is a little farther to the south (but that could still change), which may allow cold air from the north to sag further south, there may be some good snowfall in central and eastern parts of the Corn Belt Wednesday night-Thursday.

 

Deep South weather:

• A frontal boundary is working through the Deep South today, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms from today-tomorrow, which may total .25-1.25” with coverage at 80-90%.
• There is potential for strong to severe weather in the western half of the Deep South.
• A secondary wave of moisture will then bring scattered showers over the eastern half of the Deep South on Thursday totaling .25-.67” and 60% coverage.
• Strong high pressure then takes control to end the week and into the weekend, giving sunshine and temps a bit on the cool side before strong south winds move up the backside of the high and moderate temps Saturday-Sunday.
• A front works through the region from northwest to southeast late Sunday night-Tuesday, bringing rains of .25-.75” with 70% coverage, although it does try to fall apart by Tuesday afternoon and is replace by high pressure.
• More moisture moves out of TX and into the western part of the region Tuesday night-Wednesday, bringing a strong line of showers and thunderstorms into AR and LA, totaling .5-1.5” of rain.
• The front does lift north and east across the rest of the region but moisture totals won’t be as much, possibly .25-.75” maximum, with the eastern 2/3 of the region at the lower end of the range, and coverage will be 80-85%.
• Things dry out again later next week and hold into the weekend.
• Temps in the Deep South will be normal to above normal.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Low pressure is trying to move through NE today, but it’s weak low pressure and won’t do much before becoming a bigger precipitation threat further east.
• Strong high pressure out of Canada will move in behind that, with snow along the front edge of the high pressure dome, falling in eastern WY, western SD, and a direct hit on NE.
• The snow will add up to several inches before it’s finished, plus gusty winds are going to cause some blowing and drifting this afternoon-tomorrow in SD and NE.
• Snow totals look like 2-4” with coverage of the entire plains at 20% or less.
• High pressure will dominate for the rest of the week, sitting over southeast NE on Thursday morning before working east.
• South winds on the backside of the high will howl, raising temps quickly to above normal levels Friday-Saturday, but it doesn’t look to trigger a lot of precipitation.
• A big low wants to move out of CO into KS and NE on Saturday, but it only seems to trigger light showers in SD totaling .25” or less, and nothing over the rest of the plains.
• Dry weather will kick off the week, Monday-Wednesday, from the Red River northward, but in TX, rain and thunderstorms linger Sunday night-Tuesday, totaling .5-1.5”.
• The rains lift north and east into OK and southern MO Tuesday night-Wednesday, and then up into KS and NE, totaling .25-.75” with 75-80% coverage in KS, 100% in OK, and 40-50% of NE.