Corn Belt weather:

• Strong low pressure is moving across the Great Lakes this morning but an unexpected bump in temps has limited the snow to MI, with rain falling in southern MI, northern IN, and northern OH, but cold air likely moves in and changes it back to snow.
• Liquid equivalent totals will be no more than .25”, but there will be gusty winds which could cause some lake enhancement with blowing snow possible.
• Strong high pressure moves in behind this and is in control for most of the rest of this week and weekend.
• Some unsettled air will move over the Upper Midwest so we can’t rule out light snow in WI, northern MN, and northern MI.
• The high works out of SD and into the western Corn Belt starting tomorrow afternoon-Saturday, giving us a cold and dry period as it’s a Canadian high.
• For example, temps in the northern plains are going down to the single digits, where they haven’t been there for 3-4 weeks, and those cold temps will be in the Corn Belt as well.
• Some changes begin this weekend as light moisture begins to move up the backside of the high pressure dome, bringing sprinkles/light precip to MN, IA, and MO on Saturday afternoon-night.
• This does turn into more organized rain in the southern Corn Belt areas like KY, MO, southern IL, and southern IN by Sunday, with .25 to one-third of an inch totals likely staying south of I-64 in a lot of areas.
• A low pressure system next week looks like it may turn into a big one; moving into the western Corn Belt on Tuesday and tracks across the rest of the Corn Belt Tuesday night-Wednesday.
• It brings strong winds of 20-40 MPH with it and a push of warm air, which means the precipitation likely begins with rain and even thunderstorms along the leading edge of the system over MO, IL, IN, and up into MI; heavy rains in these areas could total .5-1.5” of rain, but if it lingers a bit it could push totals up to 2” or more.
• Along the top and backside of the system will be a massive push of cold air, which means this could turn into a major blowing snow event from Wednesday-Thursday.
• The track looks to move from northeast KS Tuesday up into Ontario on Wednesday morning; that track means snow for parts of IA, southern MN, and into WI.
• The winds will be the most impressive part of the event as my initial estimate of 20-40 MPH might not be enough along the backside of the system; winds may top 50 MPH along the backside of the system coming down out of the north if this system continues to develop the way it’s looking right now.
• I don’t normally like to make major changes based on one model run, but this system looks to be in the right place at the right time; I’ve been saying that we will see a major push back to below normal temps in February and this is the right kind of system to kick that off.
• Temps behind it get cold in a hurry, with bitter cold air moving in out of Canada and start to take control over a good chunk of the country next Wednesday afternoon-Thursday.

 

Deep South weather:

• Fairly calm in the Deep South here today with high pressure sitting just off the Gulf Coast over the FL peninsula and be in control through Friday.
• Some scattered light precipitation moves up the backside of the high on Friday out west in AR and LA, likely .25” or less.
• Over the weekend, a strong high in the Corn Belt pushes east and moisture starts to work up the backside of that, with moisture in MO Saturday night-Sunday, as well as AR, western KY, and western TN on Sunday, moving into VA and NC Sunday night-Monday.
• Moisture totals will be .25 to 1/3” over the northern part of the Deep South with nothing in the southern regions.
• Next week could be a lot more of a stormy pattern; Strong winds develop Monday night-Tuesday with a strong low pressure system pushing northeast across the Corn Belt and a cold front coming out of that will work through the Deep South from Wednesday-Friday.
• Rain totals could be .5-2” with some strong to severe weather likely and 100% coverage.
• The system will exit the southeast coast at midday on Thursday, followed by a strong surface high and temps a little bit cool, but not bitterly cold.
• The freezing line gets as far south as TN on Thursday afternoon but it’s not a cold air push that will reach the Gulf Coast.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is in control over the short term, but some light precipitation may pop up in eastern WY, western NE panhandle, northeast CO, and southwest SD tomorrow with light snow but nothing dramatic as high pressure dominates the rest of the plains through the end of this week.
• Disturbed weather tries to develop in the eastern plains this weekend and works into the western Corn Belt with light rains/snows, but nothing major.
• The bigger story comes with a system that develops next week with strong low pressure moving across the central plains on Tuesday, bringing some big snows over ND, with several inches of accumulation likely along with some blowing and drifting.
• The low is going to have a pretty significant dry slot working in it, meaning places like KS, NE, OK, and TX may not see a lot of precipitation, but cold air advances quickly, bringing blowing snow to NE, western half of KS, and eastern CO from Tuesday night-Wednesday.
• It if finds more moisture, this will turn into a much bigger storm complex and a bigger problem for the central plains, but as of right now the blizzard event will be in ND Monday-early Tuesday, moving into the eastern Dakotas and northern MNTuesday afternoon-Wednesday; those areas will see some of the heaviest snowfall and winds of 25-50 MPH.
• The system moves east quickly and by Wednesday afternoon, and strong cold high pressure takes control and holds through the rest of next week, with temps below zero through the I-90 corridor, and temps freezing or below down through KS and OK.

A strong low moving over Michigan today will bring snows to extreme northern areas. These snows initiated last night, and in lake enhanced areas are seeing some slightly better totals…up wards of a few inches, in Elkhart, Lagrange and Steuben counties.  Going forward, through the day today, we will see the best precipitation continue to stay north, but as we move more on the backside of the low pressure circulation, we would not be surprised to see some wrap around clouds push farther south. So, we look for the best sun today over southern Indiana, a mix of clouds and sun over central Indiana, with more clouds later in the day, and plenty of clouds up north. While there can be flakes in the air anywhere north of US 24, the best snows will be far north up along the Michigan line.

Cold air sags south over the state tomorrow, and clouds will still be a presence in many areas. However, new precipitation is not likely, outside of a flurry or two over the northern half of the state. Sunshine should try and work its way out before the day is done. High pressure will be in control from late tomorrow afternoon an evening through Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Our next system looks a little more impressive this morning. Winds shift to the south late Saturday afternoon and bring some warmer air in. this will be ahead of our next system that comes in Saturday overnight through the first part of Sunday. The low looks to track south of the state, but is trending north over the past couple of model runs. That means we are looking for some snow and rain to push into the state in this period. Snows will be seen mostly north of US 40, and a rain/snow mix from US 40 to US 50. We expect all rain south of US 50. Moisture totals are not impressive, with a few hundredths to .15” over the northern half to third of the state, and .25-.5” (liquid equivalent) over the southern half of the state. Coverage of at least some precipitation looks better this morning, and we will put it at 80%. Temps of freezing or below will be felt behind this system all the way down into the southern quarter of the state…so this system will draw down some cold air, mostly on Sunday afternoon.
Dry for Sunday night and Monday, and winds Monday shift back to the south, so we should see moderating temps. However, our next system comes quickly thereafter, with a strong low coming out of the central and southern plains, working northeast. This low tracks right across the state next Tuesday, the 7^th. With the strong south winds and warming air, we look for mostly rain at this point, but the system looks much stronger than 24 hours ago. So, we are stepping up our precipitation potential, looking for .25”-1” rain totals for Tuesday with coverage at 90%. WE will not clear out nicely behind this wave either, with lingering moisture for Wednesday. That moisture will hold as cold air pushes in through the day. That means we are talking some snow for next Wednesday over the northern third to quarter of the state, with the potential for some accumulations. Snows farther south are not likely, as cold air does not come in fast enough to see significant moisture. But, up north we also will likely have to deal with some lake enhancement. The map above is a potential set up for next Tuesday morning.

Dry to finish next week for Thursday and Friday. A clipper-like system moves across the great lakes next Saturday afternoon into Sunday, and we likely see snow in the Hoosier state from Saturday late night through Sunday midday. Moisture potential signals that we could see some accumulation over 60% of the state, but it is very early to commit to anything dramatic. We follow that up with another clipper and minor precipitation potential for Monday into Valentine ’s Day Tuesday. At the very end of the extended window, we see a strong low in the northern plains and Canadian prairies that could signal a strong batch of rain or snow for the 16^th and 17^th. This means the active pattern we were looking for mid-month has not folded and gone away just yet. The strength of any system in here early next week likely will set the stage for how strong pattern can be going forward, so our eyes are looking keenly at next Tuesday.

 

South America weather:

• Scattered moisture is falling over about 60% of Brazil of growing areas today-Wednesday, with the heaviest precipitation over the western quarter of growing areas, including western Matto Grosso through western Matto Grosso do Sul.
• 2-3 day rain totals there could be .5-2.5” combined, which means moisture will likely interfered with harvest in those areas.
• Central and eastern growing areas are looking drier going into midweek, but things change later this week with decent action firing up Thursday and Friday afternoons in Goias through western Minas Gerais.
• Totals will be .25-1” of moisture while the moisture slowly shuts off in western growing areas.
• The moisture will push farther north from Friday-Sunday, sitting just north of Matto Grosso and arcing around through Minas Gerais and into Bahia, so northeast Brazil areas may get .5-1.5” of rain off and on from Friday-Monday combined.
• The moisture starts off next week back out west Monday-Tuesday, with totals of .5-2” in Matto Grosso, MGDS, and into Sao Paulo and Parana.
• That moisture will move north and east through the rest of next week, and the pattern will give moisture to most of Brazil, with coverage at 75-80% and ten day totals of 2-3” likely.
• The rains will be spread out, so harvest should be able to progress around the moisture and planting should have decent moisture to work with going forward.
• Temps will be warmer in eastern growing areas, including Minas Gerais, eastern Goias, and up into western Bahia, but the warmer temps are expanding west a bit.
• By the middle of this week, above normal overnight lows are possible all the way through Matto Grosso, but they won’t combine with above normal daytime highs, which remain at normal to slightly above normal.
• This weekend through early next week, temps go normal to slightly above in central Brazil, including Matto Grosso into MGDS; meanwhile, northeast areas that have been the driest recently before finally pickiing up more rain, will see temps turn cooler, normal to below normal for the first half of next week in Bahia, Minas Gerais, and northeast Goias.
• Argentina is seeing a mostly dry start to the week as high pressure is still somewhat in control while strong winds are starting to kick up over the country.
• The next round of rain moves in over Buenos Aires province tomorrow night-Wednesday, with totals of .25-.75” before moving northward.
• The rest of Argentina growing areas likely see those same totals as the heavier precipitation push farther east into Uruguay and southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul.
• Dry weather will finish the week, late Thursday-early Friday, as a front tries to work into western Argentina Friday-Saturday but it doesn’t look like it holds together, and if it doesn’t, showers will likely re-start across the old frontal boundary over the weekend.
• Rain totals over the weekend look like .5-1.25” with 80% coverage across the country.
• One model is trying to show a strong circulation developing over BA on Sunday afternoon-Monday, which could bump rain totals in BA closer to 2” of rain.
• Things clear out early next week, Monday-Wednesday, with nice dry down weather.
• Strong storms stay south of key growing areas on Wednesday.
• Overall, temps look near normal, with below normal a possibilty over a few days because of strong circulations this weekend into early next week. Temps could be a little above normal early this week with some of the drier weather.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea/Russia weather:

• Strong high pressure sits over Russia this morning in the northern region and it’s a cold high pressure dome, but the cold temps are fairly normal for this time of year.
• The strong high will hold through Wednesday as it parks over northeast Ukraine and stretches through central Russia.
• We’re also seeing strong gusty winds and I think that’s a bigger story as they don’t likely ease up until Thursday.
• Temps gradually ease from Thursday-Saturday, gradually getting above the freezing mark, which means any precipitation coming across eastern Ukraine as well as central/northern Russia, could actually be a mix of rain/snow.
• Totals will be .25-.5” liquid equivalent and coverage will be no more than 30% combined over eastern Ukraine and central/southern Russia.
• Another front coming together behind that might bring some precipitation from Sunday-early Monday, totaling a few hundredths at best.
• Another cold air high tries to nose back in from central Russia after that, from Monday-Wednesday, with another cold air push.
• If it does rain over the forecast, decreasing the snowpack again, some concerns about winterkill will get talked about starting late this week-into the weekend.
• At this point, I don’t believe it, but if these things stack up too much more, there could be a story over the next 7-10 days.

Corn Belt weather:

• Strong high pressure is working through the northwestern Corn Belt today from northeast IA into the Upper Midwest.
• It’ll move over the Great Lakes and be kicked out by a strong low coming down out of the Canadian prairies tonight-tomorrow morning, bringing snow to MN, WI, and MI.
• Moisture totals will be a few hundredths to .25” liquid equivalent, with the heaviest precipitation areas near the Great Lakes region, with 30% coverage as it won’t move south of I-80.
• The circulation may hold through Wednesday, leaving lingering snows outside of the Great Lakes region.
• Strong Canadian high pressure is back over the region on Thursday, especially in the eastern Corn Belt, moving over the region Friday-Sunday, taking temps to normal to slightly below.
• Strong circulation on the backside will bring in warmer temps behind the high from Saturday night-Sunday in the western Corn Belt, triggering some precipitation in IA, MN, WI, and western IL.
• While precipitation totals aren’t huge at any given time, over the next 10 days, 30-40% of the Corn Belt will see .25” of liquid, which means precipitation is well below normal over that stretch.
• Another strong Canadian high moves across the Corn Belt early next week, Monday-Tuesday, worth a little bit of precipitation, and most of the systems moving in over the next two weeks want to stay mostly south.
• The extended forecast is still showing two fronts coming through, and I’m still in the area of colder than normal and snowier than normal for February.
• Over the next 10-14 days, the Corn Belt doesn’t look exceptionally active.

 

Deep South weather:

• High pressure will start the week over the region today and holds through Thursday.
• As it moves off the southeast coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, things begin to change.
• Light showers develop on Thursday afternoon across LA, MS, and southern AR, but nothing very organized that’ll be worth more than .25” of rain and coverage of 30-40%.
• This moisture moves through AL, GA, and SC by Friday and still isn’t well-organized but it does sow some seeds for the future.
• High pressure holds through the weekend, and then showers and thunderstorms develop on the backside of the high late Sunday afternoon and wants to hug the coast, including southern LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the FL panhandle.
• Moisture totals will be .25-.75” with coverage at 20% of the region or less.
• Strong thunderstorms get going in east TX Monday night-Tuesday, moving into LA, AR, and MS, with strong to severe weather possible as things get active from Tuesday morning-Thursday in most of the region.
• The action stays south of the Mason-Dixon line, with the rest of the Deep South picking up .25-1.25” of rain with 60-70% coverage.
• It’s followed by a dry stretch as the entire western part of the country is under the influence of high pressure.
• February 8-9, we may see a system in the Big Bend area of TX gets going and if it can draw moisture off the Gulf, there will be some moisture in the extended forecast, but right now, my thinking is things stay dry as it may not be able to draw in moisture.
• Temps in the Deep South mostly near normal over the next 10-14 days.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is in control over the plains through most of this week, but there is an upper level disturbance moving over the northern plains this afternoon-tonight, bringing light snow over eastern ND and into northern MN.
• South winds move over the northern plains today before turning north and blowing strong.
• It’s cold high pressure so temps will be in the single digits to below zero later this week, going below normal for the first time in about 3 weeks, and the freezing or below freezing temps stretch down into southern KS by the end of this week.
• It’ll be cold in the plains, especially in the north, but it won’t be like the cold blast we saw back in December.
• A minor upper level disturbance will move over SD and northeast NE next Saturday afternoon, triggering mostly flurries in those areas before it turns into a bigger deal in the Corn Belt.
• Then, it’s back to strong high pressure to finish the weekend and go into the following week.
• Next week will see some strong rains in east TX, totaling 1-2.5” but it doesn’t move north at all.
• A system then tries to push in from the northern Rockies next Tuesday night-Wednesday, February 7-8, with snows starting in WY, western NE, and northern CO, but there will be some warm air mixing in there, so will it be rain or snow.
• This means moisture in the central plains next week but that is it, so overall, precipitation looks to be below normal in the plains, with temps mostly normal but dropping below for a few days in this forecast.