Corn Belt weather:

• Strong low pressure is moving through Canada, and that’s bringing strong winds to the Corn Belt today, circulating around the low and will continue for the next several days.
• It’s leading to lake-enhanced snow in MI, northern IN, and OH.
• Temps don’t get too far below normal but they will be closer to normal than they have been.
• Strong high pressure is in play over the next 7-8 days, with strong gusty winds in between each high as they move through the nation’s midsection.
• The only change is early next week, Monday-Wednesday, with a low pressure area that moves out of Canada and across the Great Lakes region into New York state; however it’ll just bring cloud cover to part of the region while everyone else sees sunshine.
• Things change a bit by the end of next week, a weather system wants to come together over the eastern Corn Belt, drawing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico around the backside of a surface high.
• Along the I-80 corridor Saturday morning, precipitation will likely total .25” of liquid south of I-80 and more snowfall to the north of I-80, with coverage in the Corn Belt at 30%.
• The extended forecast is a little more active, with two weather systems coming through, one on February 7-8 and the other on February 10-11, and both could total .5-.75” of moisture.
• Both look to be focused more to the north, including IA, WI, northern IL, and the Great Lakes region, with rain along the southern edge and snow further to the north.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above.

 

Deep South weather:

• A line of showers is trying to clear the eastern part of the region today, moving through GA, NC, and SC.
• Behind it, strong high pressure will dominate through the weekend and most of next week; nothing significant develops from this weekend all the way through next Friday.
• Light precipitation starts to come up the backside of high pressure dome on Friday afternoon, starting in east TX, coming up through LA, AR, and the boot heel of MO.
• Totals will be .25-.5” and coverage will be 70% of the western half of the Deep South; the eastern part of the region will continue to be dry.
• A couple of weather systems try to work through the region in the extended forecast; one comes through February 8-9 and gives the eastern half of the region .5-1” rainfall, and a second system wants to develop around February 14.
• Temps in the Deep South are normal to above.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is in control of the plains right now and will hold through this weekend and into the upcoming week.
• Other than gusty winds out of the northwest, there won’t be any major weather issues.
• Temps will be normal to above normal, turning a bit warmer by the end of next week as winds turn to the south.
• Moisture moves into TX on Friday with .25-.5” totals but initially won’t move much farther north.
• Later on Friday night, showers try to develop in eastern KS and eastern NE.
• Two systems will move across the plains in the extended forecast; the first one moves through February 5-7 with the better moisture totals down south in TX and OK, where they could see 1” or better rains, and further north, totals look like .25-.5”, falling as snow from I-80 northward.
• The second one moves through further north on February 8-9, bringing moisture to ND, SD, NE, and northern KS, falling as light snow with moisture totals of .25” or less.
• There’s a possibility of another system on February 10-11, with snow falling in SD and NE, and more likely rain fall the further south it goes.

 

Snow flies over the northern part of the state off and on today. The best snows developed in far northern Indiana late last night and continued though the morning. We have a cold front associated with that strong low that moved across MI yesterday sweeping through, and that is the main reason we can see snow off and on into early afternoon over the northern half of third of the state. However, lake enhancement will be what triggers the accumulating snow in most areas. The amount of liquid available otherwise is just not very much. In far northern areas we can see a coating to an inch. 2 inches may end up being seen in areas of ST. Joe county and Elkhart county. But, the better snows look to be in MI. Southern Indiana sees a lot of sun today, and the rest of the state will see sunny breaks, as the clouds are still pretty formidable through the day.

Better weather emerges tomorrow statewide. WE have a dry pattern settling in for the finish of the week, weekend and most of next week. WE think the European model is a little too pessimistic on clouds for the weekend. Honestly, even though it’s a bit colder, temps are still mostly normal to a bit above normal through the period, meaning sunny, dry normal weather is pretty good for late January into early February. WE have no complaints.

Models are looking to bring our next system in late next week. The European sped things up a bit on its latest run, trying to bring some rains in over southern Indiana late week on Friday. WE still think this is more of a 5^th into the 6^th type of event, but we will watch it. Rains can be up to half an inch. Cold air comes in behind the system.

In the extended period, we have the potential for a secondary wave around the 7^th that we are not overly impressed with, and then a stronger wave for the 9^th and 10^th. That one looks like it will bring a warm air surge to start, followed by another major cool down. The pattern looks more active as we move toward mid-month, but we are not seeing massively dominant signs of a big cold air push yet. So, for now, we look for the increase in activity in February to be leaning more rain than snow, much the same as we saw in January.

A low pressure circulation passes by to the north and west of the state today. A weak cold front sweeps through the state attached to that low. This may trigger a little bit of light rain over the region. Coverage is not spectacular, at roughly 40% of the state. Clouds will be a significant player in the state today. Overnight tonight into tomorrow, colder air dives in, and we could still see some wrap around moisture work into that cold air. This may set up for some light snow over the northern third of the state with a light coating to at most an inch. Lake enhancement will continue through the day tomorrow adding to snows in extreme north central Indiana and up into Michigan. Meanwhile the precipitation tomorrow will not push into the central and southern part of the state. In fact, we can see sun break through in southern Indiana. The map above shows snow accumulation through tomorrow midday. As we previously have mentioned, this model is too aggressive with its snow spread to the south…we like the best chance of snow to be from US 24 northward.

The rest of the 10 day period looks dry. Sunshine breaks through for Friday and holds through the weekend and next week over all of the state. Temps will be closer to normal than we have seen recently, but will not be below normal. In fact, a temp range from highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s will be seen over most of the state, with 40s likely in southern Indiana through the period. That is an average of a little above normal for January into February.

The extended window hints at a slightly more active pattern, with a moderate system for the 5^th into the 6^th, and a stronger system for the 8^th and 9^th. Temps look like they could go either way – producing rain or snow. So, at this point we look for a more active pattern for February, but we can’t completely guarantee that it turns into a cold snowy pattern.

 

South America weather:

• Scattered hit and miss rain that started yesterday will continue through Wednesday night, possibly adding another .25-.5” of moisture with 80% coverage through the period.
• A much more organized frontal boundary complex will come together Thursday-Friday, from Matto Grosso through western Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Parana, with 1-2” rains on Thursday-Friday across Matto Grosso and Goias.
• The moisture tries to sag west and south, moving away from key crop areas by the end of the week and weekend, holding near the southern border of Matto Grosso and through MGDS over the weekend.
• It might be a challenge as harvest is underway in Matto Grosso, but harvest hasn’t started yet in other areas.
• From late Sunday night-Thursday, the pattern is turning drier with very little precipitation falling in Brazil, enabling harvest to get started and ramp up in all areas.
• Sunday night-Thursday night won’t see much more than .5” or less over 30% of Brazil.
• Temps should be mostly near normal in Brazil, but they will be above normal in the drier areas of Brazil up in the northeast, including Bahia and northern Minas Gerais.
• The rest of Brazil will be mostly normal to slightly below during daytime hours and normal to slightly above in the nighttime hours.
• In Argentina, things are transitioning into a somewhat drier pattern.
• A better front develops today, starting with minor showers in Cordoba, northern La Pampa, and BA, lifting north and east with .25-.3” over 40% of growing areas.
• Strong high pressure is over BA on Thursday-Friday this week, keeping the area dry through the weekend, and the next chance of precipitation holds off until next week.
• Showers hit eastern BA next Tuesday morning but then head out over the ocean.
• There will be some offshoot showers in Entre Rios, Santa Fe, and into Chaco from Tuesday night-Wednesday of next week, with totals of .25-.5” and coverage at 60% of Argentina’s growing areas from Wednesday night-Thursday.
• Another strong high pressure dome moves in late next week and into the following week, so all the wetness in Argentina should go away quickly.
• Temps in Argentina should be normal to slightly above, but it shouldn’t be runaway heat.
• Cooler air does sneak into the south later this week, maybe 6-8 degrees below normal, before warmer air builds back in next week.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region

• Gusty winds will be the story through a good chunk of this week.
• A massive high pressure dome will bring down some cooler air this week, with single digit temps in the overnight and near freezing during the day.
• There isn’t a lot of precipitation aheadfor the entire region, but there will be a strong circulation coming into the heart of Russia tomorrow night-Wednesday, bringing some light snow to Russia’s central region, possibly a coating to 2”.
• There won’t be a lot of precipitation through the rest of the region over the next ten days, so it’s definitely a drier push.
• Temps look normal to slightly above, but there will be some roller coaster to upcoming temps.
• Up and down temps can be hard on crops but overall condition still looks 80% good to excellent.