Mostly dry weather in today through the first part of tomorrow. We have no basic changes to our overall outlook. WE should see some sunshine today with milder air, but with all the moisture that we have received in parts of the state, fog and low clouds will also be a common issue to deal with.

We continue to see our next disturbance coming in tomorrow night and ho
lding through Friday. Moisture is minor enough to start tomorrow night, but blossoms into a significant rain maker for Friday. Rain totals still hold in the .25”-.75” range with coverage at 90% of the state. Minor flooding will return to the discussion table in many areas.

Dry for Friday night, and that dry air holds though Saturday and the first part of Sunday. We have our next system arriving
later Sunday afternoon, strengthening Sunday night and continuing through Monday. Rains total another .25”-.75” of rain potential will be seen from late Sunday through Monday, coverage at 80% of the state. Our track of the low remains right across the state from southwest to northeast. The map above is a snapshot of Friday morning, around 6 am.

Later in the 10 day window, our pattern looks similar to our forecast 24 hours ago. Colder air comes pushes in for Tuesday, taking temps down closer too normal for midweek next week. For Thursday we have another frontal boundary moving in that can bring some minor precipitation, mostly a few hundredths to a tenth or two off and on for Thursday into Friday. Coverage does not look all that impressive, mostly around 40%.
In the extended window, we see another front coming out of the plains around the 27^th-28^th that can bring some snows, as cold air is already in place. However, the rest of the extended window shows a clipper like system around the 2^nd of February, and then a major upper level ridge developing over the western US. That is a new wrinkle on one model…and one that will not lead to a major change in our forecast yet. But, it does illustrate the significant model uncertainty in the pattern once we push into February…and a lot of flip flopping on models may ensue. WE are going to continue with our cold bias for now.

 

 

South America weather:

• There’s more pop up thunderstorm action in Brazil today-tomorrow in southeast Brazil, with Sao Paulo the focal point and some action in Parana.
• A plume of moisture will move up from this action into eastern Matto Grosso, which hits a lot of the main soybean growing areas.
• Some heavier thunderstorms may pop up over central and western Matto Grosso on Thursday afternoon before the mositure lingers in the western part of the state.
• From Sao Paulo through Goias, through Matto Grosso and down to the south and west, those areas see 1-3” of rain combined with 85-90% coverage.
• That corridor of moisture holds through the weekend into early next week, but they don’t see rains in northeast Brazil.
• The moisture doesn’t look to be as intense from Tuesday-Thursday of next week and beyond as things look to turn net drying during that time frame.
• By next Wednesday night-Thursday, a front comes out of Argentina and Paraguay, sweeping across Brazil, so the second half of next week could see 1-2.5” totals with 80% coverage in key crop areas.
• Bahia and Minas Gerais likely don’t see much moisture so dryness will become the talk again in northeast Brazil.
• Temps in Brazil will be normal to slightly above, but northeast Brazil is really going to warm up so there will be some heat stress on crops, about 10% of the overall crop will feel that stress.
• Some moderate to heavy rains fell in parts of central Argentina areas that saw the really heavy rains a couple weeks ago, including Entre Rios and Santa Fe, which make up 10% of Argentina’s growing areas.
• It should be dry for most of today and tomorrow, with rains holding off until Thursday night-Friday, when a few scattered showers pop up over Buenos Aires province and into southern Cordoba.
• Totals there will be .25-.75” in those areas with coverage at 60%.
• The showers don’t move much until the weekend, settling back to the south and west on Saturday night-Sunday into La Pampa.
• It looks like nice light rains over a 2-3 day period in southern Argentina which has been a little bit drier than the rest of the country.
• No rains fall furthern north, giving good dry down potential to some areas hit by heavier rains, including Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and areas north.
• By Tuesday-Thursday next week, there is a better chance of rain in the northern areas but totals don’t look over the top, .25-.75” maximum with 75% coverage.
• A dominant high pressure dome moves in Wednesday night-Thursday, holding through the rest of next week and into the following week, with excellent dry down potential.
• We have had serious moisture in parts of Argentina but it hasn’t fallen in a new place, and there will be net drying over most of Argentina this week before nice showers fall in southern regions.
• Next week, moisture comes into most areas right on time to keep the crops moving in the right direction.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly below, but with the high pressure domes moving in, they likely trend a little above normal soon.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea regions:

• Temps are above normal over a good part of the area with dry weather to start the week over Ukraine as high pressure moves out of Europe and over the region, settling across Russia.
• There isn’t a lot of significant moisture this week, as the high is in control and it’s a warm high, with no major cold air incursions in the short term.
• Light snow/light rain may move through the region Saturday, hitting central Russia with very light totals.
• Another dominant high moves over Ukraine after that and into central Russia to finish the weekend and go through next week.
• There isn’t a lot of moisture over the ten day period, but there will be a strong front moving through late next week but still only bring light totals to central Russia, while most of the stronger action falls farther north out of key growing areas.
• There are going to be strong winds and warm temps with two significant high pressure domes late next week, so gusty winds could be a problem for some of the wheat crop as the snow pack has mostly gone away.
• The good to excellent category may pull back a bit because of these conditions.

Corn Belt weather:

• Strong low pressure is lifting across the Corn Belt, tracking through IA, IL, and lifting north and east with a line of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Corn Belt this morning.
• Heavy rains are falling in these areas and all moisture should be done this afternoon and be followed by high pressure, but not before rain totals are .25-.75” with heavier amounts a possibility.
• High pressure will be in control from tomorrow-early Thursday, with temps staying close to and slightly above normal.
• Another round of moisture is developing in east TX, LA,and the lower MS River valley on Wednesday night-Thursday, with the circulation getting stronger Thursday afternoon-night, and moisture heading up the MS River valley to the confluence of the OH and MS rivers.
• Thursday night-Friday, the low moves into southern IN, bringing rain to the eastern Corn Belt, east of the MS River valley Thursday night-Friday night, with rain totals of .25-.75” with 75% coverage east of the MS River and nothing to the west.
• Another low kicks out of the central plains on Saturday with light rain and snow over the Upper Midwest, including MN, northern IA, and WI, totaling .3” or less, but a second low comes out of the plains and follows the exact same track from KS into MO on Sunday.
• It brings moisture to MO and southern IA before tracking east and becoming more powerful, affecting the eastern part of the country, bring .25-1.5” of rain over the entire eastern US.
• Heavier rains fall Sunday night-Monday in southwest IN, western KY, and southern IL, totaling 1-2” of rain with very strong winds.
• Combined from Sunday-Tuesday, rains amounts in the Corn Belt should be .5-1.5” and coverage will be 75%.
• The active pattern will keep going with another system behind it, coming out of the plains on Wednesday, into IA, and MN with .25-.75” rains and 75% coverage, tracking east into the Great Lakes on Wednesday night-Thursday with the same kind of totals with 60% coverage.
• That last system does begin to draw down some colder air by the end of next week, meaning the next system in the extended forecast will be snow on January 29.
• Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 7-10 days, but we’ll still pay for it with more cold air through the rest of the winter season.

 

Deep South weather:

• A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the Deep South today-tomorrow, associatied with a strong low workin out of the Corn Belt, bringing rains of .25-.5” in the short term.
• Much stronger action develops later this week with a significant line of thunderstorms developing tomorrow in east TX, moving into AR and LA, staying mostly west of the MS River valley tomorrow afternoon-evening.
• It’ll cross the MS River on Thursday and moves east with heavy rains and severe weather possibly as it moves through MS, AL, and into western TN before marching across the rest of the region.
• Combined from tomorrow-Friday afternoon, rain totals will be .5-2” or more with 85% coverage, with the heaviest rain totals of 1-2.5” out in the western part of the region, and the lower totals out east in GA and NC/SC.
• Another system will move across the Gulf Coast areas on Saturday as showers and thunderstorms move into LA, southern MS, southern AL, and GA, but doesn’t push nearly as far north, but rains in the south will be persistent.\
• The rains continue Saturday-Sunday before turning into a massive circulation Sunday night-early Tuesday over the entire region, so totals from Saturday-Tuesday will be 1-2.5” rains over 90% of the Deep South.
• A system late next week up north swings a cool front through the Deep South with nothing more than sprinkles and then high pressure finally follows that in Friday-Saturday with some drier air.
• Temps will be normal to above as south flow off the coast fuels the moisture but it also brings warm temps.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is over ND/SD right now keeping things pretty quiet today as storms that caused problems over the weekend continues to move east.
• Moisture starts to develop over TX tomorrow totaling .25-.5” but it doesn’t get farther north, so the rest of the plains look good through Wednsday.
• The plains stay dry Thursday-Friday before a little light moisture moves out of the Rockies on Friday-Saturday, bringing mostly sprinkles to eastern SD and eastern NE.
• Moisture will develop in the Four Corners area of the desert southwest, but won’t kick out right away, waiting until Saturday night-Sunday to move into OK and KS with totals of .25” or less, but there is good circulation so coverage in those areas will be 60% before it moves east and gets bigger.
• The next system moves into the plains Tuesday night-Wednesday as low pressure moves into NE and KS with strong winds of 20-40 mph and higher, with the precipitation developing on the northwest side of the low.
• This will be in colder air, so it raises the possiblity of blizzard conditions in NE, northeast CO, southern SD, and northwest KS, but there is still plenty of time for this to change.
• As it moves east into the Corn Belt, high pressure follows it in and drags colder air into the region, but not necessarily an arctic push; it does take the freezing line down into OK and central TX next Thursday.
• The pattern may clear out after that as there isn’t anything dramatic showing up in the western part of the country after that.
• Temps in the plains are mostly normal to a bit above before the cold air takes it back down to near normal next week but likely not a lot below normal.

While most talk is of the impending “January Thaw”…we continue to see a very, very active precipitation pattern across the Hoosier state in the next 10 days. Residual cloud cover holds over the state today as our major precipitation maker leaves the area. We see lingering rains over the state through at least midday, adding a few tenths to as much as half an inch of moisture this morning through early afternoon. Coverage of this additional rain will be limited to about 40-50% of the state. Temps stay mostly normal to above normal in the wake of this system. The map at right shows cumulative rainfall through midnight tonight.

Clouds will try and break some for sunshine tomorrow and we see better sun potential into early Thursday. However, another disturbance comes in for late Thursday afternoon and evening into Friday. This will trigger some minor rains Thursday night, but those minor rains blow up into significant rains for Friday. All told, we are looking at .25”-.75” rain totals with some local areas pushing closer to 1 inch from Thursday night through Friday. Coverage will be around 90% of the state. This will add to already wet conditions through the state, but with soil conditions not really frozen, we should see good moisture movement away, and no major flooding issues. Still, watch for rivers to rise once again.

This weekend will be dry to start with no new moisture Saturday through early Sunday. But, Sunday afternoon through Monday we see yet another wave moving up from the southwest bringing in moderate rains. Another .25”-.75” of rain potential will be seen from late Sunday through Monday, coverage at 80% of the state. The low will track right across the state from southwest to northeast.

Colder air comes in behind that system and takes temps down closer to normal for Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. In that cold air, yet another system comes in for Thursday into Friday. Moisture is not as impressive, but it does come in with colder air already in place. This little wave could bring a mix of rain and snow, and perhaps some better snows to the north, more rain to the south. Liquid precipitation equivalent looks to be mostly under a quarter of an inch, but with the potential for mixed precipitation…it still could yield a bit of a mess. That system draws more cold air down behind it as we head toward the end of next week.

That cold pull is important, because in the extended period we see cold over a large part of the country as a strong front leaves the plains closer to the 30^th. This may lead to our first good snow system in a while moving toward the state around the turn of the month. There are a lot of moving parts here, but that will be something to watch for, as we continue to believe that this “January thaw” is only a short term phenomenon, and we will eventually “pay” for this warmth with a return of brutal cold later down the line. IF we have snow cover and continue to see a very active pattern when the cold air returns…it could make for a very interesting several week period.