Light snows overspread the state today, as high pressure moves in with a little moisture trapped underneath. This will lead to fairly constant snow shower activity across the state, but and some minor accumulations when all is said and done. However, the best accumulations will be in the central and southern parts of the state where snow is a little less frequent, so there can be some travel issues through the day today. We will need to watch for some slick spots at times, although winds will not be overly strong in the central and south. We like accumulations today from a coating to 3”, with the coating most likely up to the north, and accumulations increasing to closer to the 3 inch range in southern Indiana. Best timing is from early this morning right on through the day. . North winds may enhance the snow potential over far northern parts of the state in typical lake effect areas. The map above shows snow totals through 7 pm today.

Dry weather is back in for tomorrow through next Monday. Cold temps hold over the state thanks to strong northwest flow through the weekend. However, as we translate onto the backside of high pressure on Monday, we should see southwest winds develop over the state, and that will begin to moderate temps somewhat.

Scattered light rain shower action develops early on Tuesday of next week, and then we see much stronger rain action move in late in the afternoon through the overnight and into early Wednesday. By Wednesday noon, all rains should be off to the east, meaning this system is picking up speed, and is developing into a nice frontal passage, rather than being a slow, sagging, stagnating front ending up in the OH Valley. This should promote rain totals of .25”-.75” with coverage at 90% of the state. Much colder air comes in behind, but it should be well after the moisture has left, so at this point, we still do not have major concerns over any rain changing to snow.

Dry for Thursday and Friday. Colder than normal temps will settle over the state, with temps struggling to work through the 20s in the north, and barely getting into the 30s in the south. Then, as we move into the following weekend, we see a strong low lifting out of the mid-Mississippi river valley, bringing plenty of moisture with it. WE are concerned that we can see a rain/snow mix over the state. However, models are far apart on this period, with the GFS staying very warm, and very wet, with the best moisture waiting until closer to the 17^th. Our bias as this point will continue to be colder, with active systems passing through. That will lead us to look for some rain and snow potential for the 14^th and 15^th, and then another system likely farther out in the extended window, closer to the 19^th. Moisture totals from these systems will be up to half an inch of liquid equivalent. However, it could be more, as we are taking a very conservative approach to these systems at this time.

Bundle up…cold air will dominate for the coming few days, and even the moderating push next week will only last a day or two. It is definitely winter across the Hoosier state.

 

South America weather:

• No significant changes in South America weather with Brazil seeing timely rains in most growing areas over the next 10 days.
• The drier area in northeast Brazil is still getting attention as no serious rains look to fall in that area, which includes Bahia, northeast Minas Gerais, and part of eastern Goias.
• That area is not big on row crop production right now, instead growing mostly cocoa and coffee, but Bahia does grow corn right now and will need some rains in the next 10 days.
• Moisture is going to be limited to places like Matto Grosso, Matto Grosso do Sul, and through south/southeast Brazil, and that’s a good thing as those are the biggest crop production areas right now.
• Temps in northeast Brazil will be a good 5-7 degrees above normal over the next five days and overnight temps will be warmer too with no rainfall in the short term.
• Most of the action in Brazil this week will be pop up, heat based thunderstorms, and we don’t see any fronts moving across the country for the rest of this week.
• This week, we’ll see below normal rainfall in Brazil’s key growing areas, likely .25-1.25” combined now-Sunday, with those drier areas still not getting rain this week as well.
• Better moisture develops in south/southeast Brazil next week, from southeast Matto Gross over to Goias through southwest Minas Gerais and areas to the south of that line.
• Rain totals next week will be 1-2” combined and it’ll park for multiple days in those areas.
• That leaves the balance of Matto Grosso, northern Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia dry again.
• Temps in those drier areas look to be normal to above, with the rest of Brazil trending normal to slightly above.
• Northern Minas Gerais is likely the area that’ll develop heat stress with the warmest temps in the forecast.
• Harvest is underway in Matto Grosso and it’ll be aided by dryness in the short term.
• Temps cool off next week and go back below normal in MGDS, through Parana, Sao Paulo, and southwest Minas Gerais, which means any heat stress isn’t going to be a long-term challenge.
• The Argentina setup looks more like a north versus south deal.
• Northern Argentina should see good moisture over the next 10-14 days, but central and southern areas will see lower totals.
• A big cluster of thunderstorms over the northern half of Argentina growing areas that’ll put down 1-3” of rain through the balance of today.
• High pressure will dominate Saturday-Sunday, but a small cluster of thunderstorms will fire up in BA and Cordoba on Saturday night.
• Big showers will fall in the northern half to 2/3 of Argentina on Tuesday-Wednesday, with another 1-2” of rain and nothing in the southern 1/3 of growing areas.
• The best action in the south will be tomorrow night-Friday, where they could see .5-1” of rain in all southern areas that had been missed up to that point.
• All growing areas in Argentina get at least 1.5” of rain, with central/northern areas getting 2-2.5” over the next 10 days.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly above as things get a little warmer in the north, with central and southern areas still cooler than normal during the day but warmer than normal at night.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region weather:

• Reports are that 80% of the winter crops in that area look very good and there’s nothing in the outlook that’ll change our thought process on that.
• Moisture will come through in a timely manner as fronts sweep through, with one coming across the Black Sea and over southern Ukraine from tomorrow-Friday of this week.
• Another system will move through at the end of this weekend/early next week.
• Timely moisture and good snow cover for wheat areas in the region.
• Temps are moving to normal/slightly below normal after trending above in recent days.
• Brutal cold weather may move into Ukraine and parts of Russia by the end of the weekend and early next week, but there’s plenty of snow cover on top of the winter wheat crop.

 

Corn Belt weather:

• As a strong storm complex lifts away over New England, wraparound winds will kick up in the Corn Belt.
• Strong northwest winds will howl over the Corn Belt but they should diminish as we go through the day.
• Significant lake effect snow will fall along the eastern shores of Lake Michigan, the southern shores of Lake Superior, and the southern shores of Lake Huron and Lake Erie.
• The snows will be significant but not wide ranging as the system won’t pick up a lot of moisture from the lakes and deposit it a lot further inland.
• As high pressure works in tomorrow, it does bring some light snow with it across MO, IL, IN, and southern IA.
• The moisture totals won’t be impressive as it may total between a coating to 1-2” in spots, plus there won’t be any significant winds with it.
• The pattern will then be dry from Friday-Monday as high pressure will dominate.
• South winds develop on the back side of that high on Monday-Tuesday, which will allow the temps to moderate somewhat after a below normal finish to this week and through the weekend.
• The next system still looks to move through by the middle of next week.
• It will have very strong winds Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday as a very strong cold front gets ready to move through, but I question how much moisture will be available.
• Rains will move across IL, IN, and MI on Tuesday night-Wednesday, but the big question is does cold air come in quickly enough to change it to snow, and models don’t agree on whether it will or won’t.
• If it stays liquid, moisture totals will be .25” to 2/3” across areas east of the MS River valley, but it likely ends with wet snow as winds blow 15-30 mph.
• The track of the low itself isn’t the story as that’s up in Canada, but the frontal boundary attached to it is what’s causing the precipitation.
• The track is a little uncertain and we’ll have to see where the cold air sets up and how quickly it arrives.
• Light rains and snows arrive in the eastern Corn Belt later next week, Thursday night-Friday.
• There will also be full snows falling in MN and WI, with bitter cold air following it in and 0 degree temps down to the I-80 corridor.
• Arctic air still looks to be in line for the Upper Midwest for the middle of January.

 

Deep South weather:

• Today/tomorrow look dry in the Deep South before rains move in at the end of the week.
• Showers and thunderstorms break out Friday in LA, MS, and AL before developing into a significant batch of moisture through the weekend, working its way through the central and eastern parts of the region.
• Rain totals combined will be .5-1.5” with 60% coverage; areas that may be missed include AR, TX, LA, and northern MS.
• Strong high pressure will keep things dry Sunday-Tuesday, bringing temps in the low 30s all the way down to GA and SC on Monday night-Tuesday morning, but the high does move away fairly quickly.
• South winds will move up the backside of the high by midweek before scattered showers work into AR and western TN Wednesday morning but won’t go much further south.
• Moisture will develop out of the old frontal boundary in northern MS, northern AL, and TN Wednesday night-Thursday, turning into a system affecting the northern half of the Deep South on Thursday.
• Moisture totals will be .25-.5” there but it doesn’t really go away as it refires a day later in TN, northern MS, and eastern AR.
• The Gulf Coast are, east TX, and FL peninsula areas don’t see much to finish out next week.
• Temps will be normal to somewhat below, especially as northern areas deal with colder air next week.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is in control of the plains but there will be a weak system moving through the plains over the next 24 hours.
• The low is moving through eastern CO and will sag southward from now-Friday, with moisture extending through parts of NE, then sagging southward through KS, the southeast part of CO, and through the OK and TX panhandle areas.
• Moisture will be mostly light in the plains but heavier in the higher elevations, where they have winter storm warnings in eastern WY and central CO.
• Totals will mostly be a coating to 1” but there could be 3-4” in the NE panhandle today-tomorrow morning.
• High pressure is in control of the northern plains with bitter cold temps there, staying below zero until Friday afternoon.
• The weather looks calm through the weekend up and down the plains.
• A system moves across the northern plains on Tuesday, bringing a chance of light snow in ND, where they could see 1-4” from I-90 northward.
• South of I-94, they’re looking at mostly gusty winds and cloud cover.
• High pressure moves back in Thursday and keeps things dry through the end of the week.
• A disturbance in SD on Friday could drop some snowfall before heading east into the Corn Belt through the weekend.
• Arctic high pressure is back in play by next Saturday, and you’ll hear talk of the polar vortex again, with temps 0 or below all the way down to I-80.
• It’s an active pattern but won’t generate a lot of moisture in the plains over the next 10 days.

Much colder air comes into the region today, behind a front that finally worked through the state late yesterday. This should usher in a period of below normal temps that hold through the end of the week. We also will see drier weather attempt to move in with the cold, but that will be stymied just a bit over the far northern part of the state. In those areas, we expect lake effect snows to set up. With the current wind set up, this will likely be limited to typical areas in north central and northeast Indiana, mostly St. Joe, Elkhart, Lagrange and Steuben counties, with some lighter, more variable snows the next tier of counties south. The rest of the state should see some breaks in clouds through the day, and some sun to go along with the cold air today.

Tomorrow we have minor light snows meandering through the state as strong high pressure sweeps across from west to east. Moisture available is only a few hundredths to at most .15”, but air is cold enough to see light snow and flurries over about 80% of the state. Accumulations will be minor, but we still will want to be on the lookout for slick roads in spots, as the snow is going to be fairly constant through the day. IT should not promote major school or business delays in most areas, unless the little wave decides to amplify out of the blue.

Mostly dry Friday through the weekend and into Monday of next week. We may see some lake effect snows and clouds pop up on a couple of occasions this weekend in far northern Indiana and more so in Michigan, but it is not a big enough threat to really devote lots of resources to this morning. The rest of the state should see good sunshine all the way through. Temps will try to moderate some, but will not see large scale expansion just yet. However, strong southwest winds will start to develop Monday midday and afternoon up the backside of a strong high pressure dome. This will begin to push temps higher late Monday afternoon and we will continue to see that moderating push into Tuesday, as our next batch of moisture moves in.
Light rains move in next Tuesday afternoon and will continue off and on through Wednesday into Thursday. Currently, models are keeping the core of low pressure farther south, setting up a corridor of most significant moisture over the southern half of the state for the 2-3 day period. As it stands right now, we could see rains combine to bring half to 1.25” in areas along and south of I-70 from late Tuesday through Thursday. Rains farther north will be up to half an inch through Wednesday. Coverage north of I-70 looks to be 50%, while coverage south of I-70 will be 100%. Here is where things get interesting: with this corridor of heaviest moisture staying south along with the low pressure track, that allows cold air to push in over the northern parts of the state Wednesday night into Thursday while moisture is still in play with the system. That will change rains over to snow in northern Indiana with the potential for some accumulations. This would be followed by the potential for some lake snows later Thursday through Friday. Now…there is plenty of time before the system’s arrival to change track. A move farther north would put more rain over more of the state and decrease the chance of snow. A move south may bring a chance of snow farther south, but amounts likely would be lower. This is a big wild card, and has plenty of different scenarios it could breed, so we will continue to watch this very closely. For what it’s worth, the GFS model is its typical warmer, wetter self, while the European is colder and favors a southern track. This will be fun. In any case, this map shows at least one thought about precipitation coverage just after the noon hour next Wednesday, a week from today.

In the extended period, behind the system the middle of next week, we see drier air come in for a few days. Our next significant front likely does not develop until closer to the 16^th and 17^th. It will be similar to most of the strong fronts so far this winter…sweeping through most of the state from west to east. This time, the low is looking to dig farther south over the plains, which would set us up for better snow potential out of a possibly strong frontal passage. If the European is right on the system next week, that would mean more cold air already in place, for that extended period system to move right into. The key takeaway from this outlook this morning is that we do not see any decrease in activity over the coming 2 weeks heading right through mid-month.