South America weather:

• Dryness is becoming more of a concern in northeast Brazil as places like Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and northeast Goias have missed out on recent moisture.
• Thunderstorms do form over Goias tomorrow afternoon, but they don’t seem to move north and east.
• Most of the action in Brazil this week will be pop up, heat based thunderstorms, and we don’t see any fronts moving across the country for the rest of this week.
• This week, we’ll see below normal rainfall in Brazil’s key growing areas, likely .25-1.25” combined now-Sunday, with those drier areas still not getting rain this week as well.
• Better moisture develops in south/southeast Brazil next week, from southeast Matto Gross over to Goias through southwest Minas Gerais and areas to the south of that line.
• Rain totals next week will be 1-2” combined and it’ll park for multiple days in those areas.
• That leaves the balance of Matto Grosso, northern Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia dry again.
• Temps in those drier areas look to be normal to above, with the rest of Brazil trending normal to slightly above.
• Northern Minas Gerais is likely the area that’ll develop heat stress with the warmest temps in the forecast.
• Harvest is underway in Matto Grosso and it’ll be aided by dryness in the short term.
• Temps cool off next week and go back below normal in MGDS, through Parana, Sao Paulo, and southwest Minas Gerais, which means any heat stress isn’t going to be a long term challenge.

• The Argentina setup looks more like a north versus south deal.
• Northern Argentina should see good mositure over the next 10-14 days, but central and southern areas will see lower totals.
• Tomrrow-Thursday, they’ll see a big cluster of thunderstorms over the northern half of Argentina growing areas that’ll put down 1-3” of rain.
• Today-tomorrow, there will be scattered showers ahead of it in BA, Cordoba, and La Pampa, with coverage at 30% of the southern half of growing areas.
• High pressure will dominate Saturday-Sunday, but a small cluster of thunderstorms will fire up in BA and Cordoba on Saturday night.
• Big showers will fall in the northern half to 2/3 of Argentina on Tuesday-Wednesday, with another 1-2” of rain and nothing in the southern 1/3 of growing areas.
• The best action in the south will be Thursday night-Friday, where they could see .5-1” of rain in all southern areas that had been missed up to that point.
• All growing areas in Argentina get at least 1.5” of rain, with central/northern areas getting 2-2.5” over the next 10 days.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly above as things get a little warmer in the north, with central and southern areas still cooler than normal during the day but warmer than normal at night.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region weather:

• Reports are that 80% of the winter crops in that area look very good and there’s nothing in the outlook that’ll change our thought process on that.
• Moisture will come through in a timely manner as fronts sweep through, with one coming across the Black Sea and over southern Ukraine from Thursday-Friday of this week.
• Another system will move through at the end of this weekend/early next week.
• Timely moisture and good snowcover for wheat areas in the region.
• Temps are moving to normal/slightly below normal after trending above in recent days.
• Brutal cold weather may move into Ukraine and parts of Russia by the end of the weekend and early next week, but there’s plenty of snow cover on top of the winter wheat crop.

Corn Belt weather:

• A storm complex centered in the eastern US is dragging moisture with it through the eastern Corn Belt today, including IN and OH, plus parts of eastern MI.
• A second wave of moisture comes through later today/this evening, just ahead of another blast of arctic air.
• Most of the second wave will be liquid moisture in IN, lower MI, OH, and down into KY.
• Snowfall is moving through MN and WI this morning before lifting northeast into parts of Ontario.
• Very strong north winds will wrap around the backside of the low tonight-Wednesday, setting up lake effect snow over MI, northern WI, IN, and OH.
• These lake effect zones could see significant accumulation, but the rest of the Corn Belt won’t see that kind of precipitation.
• High pressure then slides across the central Corn Belt, but it’s a “dirty high,” in that it will have some light snowfall with it that’ll work its way through 60% of the Corn Belt, totaling a coating to 2” possible.
• Most of that will fall in IL, IN, and OH, plus they’ll see some in MO and southern IA on Thursday morning.
• That snow moves east quickly and high pressure dominates through the rest of the week/weekend, Friday-Sunday.
• The arctic air and 0 degree temp line sneaks down to I-80.
• The backside of the high this weekend will see south windflow that will moderate temps Monday-Tuesday, but that’ll end fairly quickly as another strong storm complex works through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday.
• This brings snow to MN and WI, but they’ll just see winds further to the south.
• Wednesday night-Thursday will see a better precipitation chance right along the I-70 corridor, including MO, IL, and IN, with rain totals of .25-.75” and 75-80% coverage in those areas.
• The area could be in line for snow in the extended forecast in the western Corn Belt and rain in the east, January 14-15, if it can hold together as it moves closer.

 

Deep South weather:

• Things calm down a bit in the region after rains falling today move out by this evening.
• Thunderstorms start the day in NC, SC, eastern TN, and GA, with additional moisture at .25-.5” only.
• Dry tomorrow-Friday as snows in the OH River valley don’t appear to drop south at the end of the week.
• Temps push down close to freezing in MS and AL by the end of the week.
• Another storm complex moves through the coastal areas Friday night-Saturday, with coverage at 60-70% and totals of .25-.75” likely.
• The next system to move through the Deep South doesn’t come together until later next week as a system in the OH River valley doesn’t sag south, but there will be a cold front developing out of it and sweep through western and northern parts of the region Thursday afternoon.
• Rain totals will be .25” to a third, with 40-50% coverage in the region, with coastal areas likely more impacted by high pressure over the Gulf.
• The extended forecast isn’t showing anything that promises large amounts of rain later in the window, but there will be moisture just off the coast that will throw waves of moisture inland occasionally.

 

Great Plains weather:

• The plains look relatively quiet over the next 7-10 days after dealing with some lingering snowfall in the northern plains and Upper Midwest today and winds will subside by sunset tonight.
• The rest of the plains will see minor snows this week, with the best chance to come late Wednesday-Thursday as moisture kicks out of the central Rockies into the central plains.
• Snow totals may be 4” in eastern CO, but NE, KS, OK, and TX panhandle only see 1-2” of snow and no significant winds with it.
• High pressure sits over the plains from Saturday-Tuesday before snow comes back to the northern plains on Tuesday afternoon, including eastern ND and northern MN.
• Strong high pressure moves in later next week and keeps all areas basically dry, but a light coating is possible in NE and ND Wednesday night-Thursday, but that’s it.
• A system coming together out west on January 12-13 means the plains could be in line for another strong winter storm on January 14-15.
• Brutal cold temps will be the story this week in the northern plains through the first half of this week and freezing or below temps all the way down into TX.
• The cold does let up later this week as south winds kick up behind the high pressure dome, with next week looking seasonal as there aren’t strong systems moving through that can draw down the colder air.

Rains moved in yesterday and we continue to see some lingering action this morning over eastern and southern parts of the state. However, we should see a little bit of a lull in the action through midday and afternoon working in from west to east, before another wave of action slides through late this afternoon and tonight. This second push of moisture will still likely be rain, although we are seeing much colder air work in as well from the north and west. All told, we think we can pick up another .1” to .5” of rain today, and we have to watch tonight for any of that rain to try and switch over to snow before ending. We do not think it will lead to any serious accumulation.

We should be mostly dry tomorrow (Wednesday) and then with strong north winds coming down the fetch of the great lakes, we can see some lake enhancement of our next system, a clipper like system that rips through on Thursday. Moisture does not look overly impressive, mostly a tenth to .15” or less, but it will be cold enough to be all snow, so we look for minor accumulations over about 80% of the state. Up north near the lakes, we can see slightly higher amounts with the lake effect. Still, but Friday morning everything is long gone.

High pressure is in for Saturday and Sunday, leading to some sunshine and overall pleasant weather, at least for January. Temps will be near normal. Then we see a return to southwest flow for Monday, and as our next little trough moves through, we can see some light snow flying over about 60% of the state. Little to no accumulation. This will just be the precursor to our next front that moves through later Tuesday into Wednesday. Action starts as some snows overnight Tuesday night. These can bring accumulations of a coating to a few inches mostly over the northern half to third of the state. Then we see rains from .25”-.6” for Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon with coverage at 80%.  Cold air returns Wednesday night in the wake of the front. Dry then for the balance of the 10 day period through next Thursday.

In the extended window, we see another significant front trying to work through around the 14^th into the 15^th. This could have liquid equivalent precipitation of .25”-.75” with coverage at 100% of the state. However, models are largely divergent on the air mass that comes in with the system. The European is much colder, meaning we would be looking at bigger snow potential, while the GFS still likes the warm surge first, with cold air coming after rains are done. We think the colder solution is likely…and like a below normal month of January for temps. But, time will tell. Suffice to say, we still look for a normally active pattern through the first half to eh month, with systems every few days. There is nothing really too far out of the ordinary here.

 

Lake effect snows continue this morning over northern Indiana, but we will see a change in wind direction through the day that should allow for those snows to come to an end. Still, over the northern tier counties in north central and northeast Indiana, we can see some minor accumulations through this morning. The biggest trouble spots will be due to wind, however, as that will trigger low visibilities at times. By afternoon, winds will begin their swing back to the southwest. That southwest flow will cut the lake effect potential over the state, and also will begin to take temps back up a few degrees.

Temps climb through the day tomorrow into Sunday, but will not go too far above normal. Winds will be strong out of the west-southwest for tomorrow, but precipitation stays mostly to the south of the OH River. As we are building toward a fairly significant precipitation event early next week, we likely will see clouds trying to build through the weekend, but winds will mix the atmosphere enough to keep some sunshine around, more so on Saturday than Sunday.

The big event to watch will unfold on Monday, as rains move in from the west and south. We like these rains kicking off late Sunday night as a few scattered showers, but the action will become more frequent and intense through Monday. Cumulative rain totals through Tuesday afternoon will be from .25”-1.25” with coverage at nearly 90% of the state. We still think the northern part of the state has a slightly better chance to be in the upper half of the range. At this point, the only changes in our outlook from here (Friday morning) through Tuesday is a slight delay in the best rains for the period, and a slight extension in the duration of the event (into Tuesday afternoon). The map above shows potential total rain amounts from Sunday evening through Tuesday evening.

Behind the system, the cold front comes through Tuesday night, bringing in much colder air. Temps will be below normal for Wednesday and Thursday, and we should see some sunshine. An interesting wrinkle develops for late in the week, though, as moisture passes by to the south with strong low pressure in KY overnight Thursday night. Clouds from this will work up into the state for Friday, and we can’t rule out some light snow statewide from those clouds. Totals do not look overly impressive, but we could see a few inches if things develop as projected. There would be additional lake effect snows for the weekend (7^th and 8^th) as strong north winds work in. This late week feature will need to be watched closely, and additional moisture would take snows from a nuisance level to one of more concern….so track of the low to the south will be very important.

In the extended period, we see potential for 2 fronts, a minor one for the 10^th and 11^th that really brings a few rain or snow showers and that is all, and a stronger, more impressive front for the 13^th into the 14^th. That second front, if it can tap into gulf moisture like we see, could bring significant rains from the OH River southward, and then some snows to the north side of the low. Much colder air looks to blast in behind it. Either way, we think the overall vein from now into mid-January is to ratchet temps down and keep a very active precipitation pattern across the state with regular frontal boundary passages.