The near term forecast is basically unchanged this morning, but we are making a few tweaks to our forecast toward the end of the 10 day period, and in particular for the extended period.  

 

We are dry and colder today as cold air comes in out of the north behind the front that passed yesterday. Temps today will be normal to below normal for this time of year over the entire state. We see the dry weather continue through the weekend and next Monday, with temps gradually moderating through the period. We should be rather mild next Monday ahead of our next weather system.

 

That minor front mover through from Monday evening through Tuesday morning and continues to have very little impressive moisture. We are leaving rain totals for that event alone this morning at a few hundredths of an inch to no more than .25” over about 80% of the state. We likely see clouds breaking for a little sunshine in there for Tuesday afternoon, but don’t look for that to be something that stays for any length of time. Much colder air comes in behind that front and ill likely trigger plentiful clouds for Wednesday. We expect to start the day with light snow and flurry action over the northern third of the state, and graduate to clouds, spits, sprinkles and flurries statewide for the rest of Wednesday. Temps will be below normal and the clouds give a very winter like feel.

 

We do stay cold Thursday but see sun return, and then we moderate our temps next Friday and Saturday.

 

Our next system arrives next Saturday afternoon and evening, pushing moisture into Sunday the 11^th. We expect .25”-.75” rains over the entire state for that period. However, where things get complicated is there at the finish of the 10 day period and into the extended. Computer models seem to be at odds over the progression of moisture, and at times at a loss on timing. We are seeing flip flops back to a wetter period for the 12^th-13^th-14^th. At this time we are going to leave our forecast mostly alone, but allow for .25” to .75” total rain in that 3 day period, and then look for a stronger system for the 16^th, as we alluded to yesterday. Now, if the system on the 16^th is able to strengthen, it will rob moisture from that 3-4 day window ahead of it…so that is why we are wanting to trend drier for the 12^th-15^th…because we think that the system on the 16^th has the best chance of coming together in a moderating pattern. But, time will tell, and we will revisit this next Monday.

 

For the time being, we are looking at a fairly nice weekend, and most of next week will be dry. The action Monday night into Tuesday is almost a non-issue.

Rains move across the state today with good rain totals likely. We look for amounts to range from .25” all the way through 1.25” with coverage at 70% of the state. The best chance for the upper end of that range will be in the northern third of the state, and we would skew rain chances in general better over the northern half to two-thirds of the state. Rains will be winding down this evening, but we won’t rule out action ending as some sloppy wet snowflakes well to the north in Indiana, closer to the Michigan line. At this time, we think most of that area will dodge significant accumulation, as the coldest air does not make it in fast enough to work with good moisture to trigger bigger snows.

 

Colder air in for Friday, but in general we are dry for 4 full days, Friday through next Monday. Temps will slowly gain during the period, ending up above normal again to start next week with south flow ahead of our next front.

 

That front arrives next Monday night and is gone by midday Tuesday. It may even move through faster. Moisture is unimpressive and we are leaving totals at a few hundredths of an inch to no more than .25” over about 80% of the state. Much colder air comes in behind that front and ill likely trigger some light snow and flurry action that lingers through Wednesday. There does not look to be too much available moisture to work with, so these will likely be nuisance flurries, but it also means we will not return to bright, sunny, spring like weather right away either. Temps stay below normal for most of the rest of next week.  Sun is back for Thursday and Friday.

 

A strong low moves back into the region for Saturday the 10^th. Nice rains come in on the front side of the low in the warm sector, and we see rains ending up in the .25”-.75” range with coverage at 100% of the state. A second wave for the 12^th is showing signs of drifting farther south. We will see. If it does, that likely means colder air funnels in here to fill the gap.

 

Over the rest of the extended period we stay dry up through the 15^th. On the 16^th another strong low comes out of the central plains and moves across the state. This could have some .25”-1” rain potential. However, there is plenty of uncertainty in the extended period…as we were much wetter from the 12^th through the 15^th a day or two ago. It will be a period to watch. At this time, we would say our bias is toward less moisture at mid-month.

 

 

A damp day kicks off over the southern half of Indiana this morning. Rains look to have good coverage from I-70 southward today, with rain totals of .25”-.75”. We can’t rule out some spits, sprinkles and plenty of clouds from I-70 northward, but the good moisture just does not go that direction. Strong winds out of the southwest today will promote another mild afternoon.

Tomorrow we have rain spreading over most of the state. Strong low pressure moves from central IL into north central Ohio. Notice this track of the low is farther south. This track will give 70% coverage across Indiana of rains from .25”-1”. These will skew more over the northern 2/3rds of the state. Rain will end as snow in northern areas tomorrow night from US 24 northward. Everything should be done by shortly after midnight tomorrow night. Snows can accumulate a coating to an inch or two from US 30 north, and only have some flakes in the air to a fresh coating south of US 30. The strong northern flow around the backside of the system is what really gives the potential for snow to develop. And we can see heavier snow potential just a bit farther north into Michigan. That being said, the European model is by far the heaviest on snow, and the GFS is downplaying the entire event. We think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Still, winds will be very strong, at 20-40 mph, and that will cause some visibility issues and low wind chills

We are dry, but cool on Friday, and we stay dry and chilly through Saturday. We should start to see some temperature moderation Sunday, and next Monday will bring mild temps. That will be a nice 4 day dry stretch to allow Thursday’s moisture to move away and through the soil profile.

Scattered showers look less impressive this morning for next Monday night into Tuesday. We are dropping rain totals back to a few hundredths to .25” over 80% of the state. The best chances come right around Tuesday morning. But early afternoon, action is already off to the east.

We can see some light snow and flurry action as north winds come across the lakes on Wednesday, but in general, if we miss out on the light snow and flurry potential, we will be dry through next Friday, but definitely colder. WE should see temps mostly normal to below normal through that period.

The extended continues to show scattered precipitation for the 10^th through the 12^th. While action does not look as impressive, we still are leaving the door open for .25”-.75” across the region. We then have a weak wave for the 14^th that brings a few hundredths to a quarter inch, and then a low over the great lakes for the 15^th that brings .25”-.5”. Temps will be chilly to start the 11-16 day period, but will moderate to near and slightly above normal levels by mid-month.

 

No change in today’s outlook. We will be sunny, mild and dry! However, we are having to make a few changes for tomorrow. The wave that we were hoping would stay south into KY is pushing farther north. This will allow for rains of .25”-.5” to spread up to near the I-70 corridor. Clouds tomorrow make it all the way up into northern Indiana, we can’t rule out a few spits and sprinkles in north central and northeast Indiana. So, while we were hoping for another dry day tomorrow, it looks like we will not see that in many places.

Our next strong, well organized system still is not arriving until Thursday. Low pressure tracks from central IL through NE Indiana and into Michigan for Thursday and brings rain totals of .25”-.75” to 80% of the state during the day. We still think there is a strong likelihood that the precipitation ends as snow over northern Indiana as cold air races in behind. Right now we will open the door up to some 1”-4” snow totals over the far northern quarter of the state, and there may be some better totals in there. We will allow for sloppy wet snow all the way down to the US 24 corridor, but the best accumulations will be north. In fact, southern Lower Michigan could get pounded…depending on timing. Snow is done by sunrise Friday, or around there. Winds continue to look nasty Thursday night and Friday and have the potential to make this a very dramatic event. We can see winds up to 20-40 mph, which would make any snow up north an absolute pain to deal with. These snow totals and this snow potential is just a working process right now…we will hone in on a more specific forecast tomorrow morning.

No change for the rest of the forecast. We go back to drier weather for Friday through next Monday morning. High pressure will slowly work through the state Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Cold air holds over the region to finish the week and start the weekend, only moderating once we get south flow on the backside of that high.

A cold front brings rain back for Monday afternoon through the first part of Tuesday, the 5^th into the 6^th. Rains do not look as impressive this morning, and will mostly be from .25”-.5” with coverage at 60% of the state. Colder air follows on the backside.

The extended period has us mostly devoid of new precipitation to start, through the 9^th. Then we have 2 significant waves moving across the eastern Corn Belt from the 10^th through the 12^th. Combined, these waves can bring half to 1.5” rain totals, and likely will deliver below normal temps around mid-month. Still, the pattern does not look nearly as active as what we just got done with this past week…so we should be seeing improvement in our drainage conditions through the next couple of weeks.