It is cold this morning over the state, and we are getting reports of some subzero temps in areas that were able to clear out last night in NW Indiana. High pressure moves across southern Indiana through the day today. However, today’s chill is not the hot topic of discussion in the forecast.

Snow returns to northern Indiana tonight and continues through tomorrow. Models are at odds over this system, with one model saying 3-6 inches as the max snow near the Michigan line, and the other saying a ribbon of 11-13 inch totals will fall right across the middle of the northern third of the state. The interesting thing is, the model that is usually overzealous on snow is the one being conservative, and the one that has the poorest track record at catching heavy snow events is the one that is going over the top. The answer likely lies in the middle. We look for snow to be in the 5-8 inch range from SR 4 down to US 30. The southern bound of snow is unchanged from our previous discussions, down to US 24. However, snow totals will drop off rather quickly the closer you get to US 24. This is truly a northern Indiana event, with only flurry south of US 24 for tomorrow and nothing south of I-70 for the same period. We do have a second wave coming through Saturday and Sunday that will bring 1-3 inches statewide, so that at the end of the weekend, we see snow on the ground for 90% of the state. Up north, be prepared for traffic to move a little slow tomorrow.

Next week is drier, with bitter cold air in for Monday. Subzero temps are likely over almost all of the state north of I-70. After that cold start to the week, we have temps moderate a bit Tuesday, before clouds and colder air returns for Wednesday. High pressure dominates next Thursday and temps climb again on Friday. We do have some scattered light snow showers possible overnight Friday night into early Saturday, mostly over the northeast quarter of the state. On Saturday, we turn colder and drier again.

The extended pattern is more active again, with 3 systems in 5 days. One on the 18^th brings rain mixed with snow, and liquid equivalent precipitation of a quarter to half inch. On the 20^th we see half to 1 inch of moisture coming through (liquid equivalent) and on the 21^st we can see 1-2 inches of liquid, potentially coming as mostly snow. Then we are dry and cold through the 23^rd.

 

We are slowly working through a snowy week, and are making a few minor changes to our upcoming forecast. Snow will be exiting the state by midday day today, and we still look for the biggest accumulations in southern Indiana, either side of a line from Princeton to Cincinnati. In that area we can see 3-5 inch snow totals. In general, southern Indiana will see storm total snows in the 1-5” range, while northern Indiana will be 1-3” at best, and mostly in the lower end of the range.

High pressure settles in over Indiana overnight tonight and will park in Southeast Indiana by tomorrow morning. This brings colder air back, and we do expect some spotty subzero temps tomorrow morning, mostly in NW and north central Indiana.

Our next snow event for Friday looks be farther north now, and may end up missing most of the state. We will keep snow in the forecast for Friday north of US 30, but will see temps reach to freezing or above for daytime highs from US 30 southward. Moisture leads to 1-3 inches of snow in the northern most row of counties in Indiana Friday, and a coating to an inch down to US 30, but that it all. The rest of the state sees a mixture of clouds and sun.

However, we do not escape the snows. What Mother Nature takes out for Friday, she puts in for Saturday night and Sunday. We now see a much stronger secondary wave coming for that period, and it can bring 3-6 inch snows to the northern half of the state, and 1-3 inches south. This is a new wrinkle. Previously, we had been looking at most moisture coming out in a warm front scenario. This change moves the best precipitation to the cold front passage for the last half of the weekend. It also can lead to a larger coverage area for snow.

Bitter cold air is in for Monday. We expect subzero temps over most of the northern half of the state Monday morning. A slow moderation in temps comes for Tuesday, although temps stay chilly. Then Wednesday we see normal to above normal temps statewide, with most of the state above freezing for highs. Clouds are in for next Thursday, and we can’t rule out scattered light snow showers for next Thursday night (the 15^th) into Friday, although the best chances for snow may be limited to the northern half to third of the state.

The extended forecast is unchanged, with only 1 threat of precipitation coming for the 19^th into the 20^th. The system still looks strong, and we think we can see up to 1.5” of liquid equivalent precipitation.

 

A few tweaks to the forecast this morning, but overall, our pattern is unchanged. We had snow develop overnight last night, and that fast moving batch of action is already pushing off to the east. It will be a story over Ohio today. Sunshine should be coming back through this afternoon.

Snow is back overnight tonight and will go through midday tomorrow. This part of a system lifting up out of the MO valley. The heaviest precipitation continues to stay south, but we are expanding our snow totals and coverage a bit farther this morning for tomorrow’s event. We still think a coating to 2 inches will be what we see over the northern half of the state, and south of I-70, we will look for 1-4 inches. Still, down in KY we can see 5-7 inches or more, but that is of no concern to most of us.

We should be dry, but cold for tomorrow night and Thursday. We expect subzero temps Thursday morning over NW and North Central Indiana.

Our next snow event moves into northern Indiana overnight Thursday night and goes through the day Friday. This system seems to be dividing into 2 waves, one for Friday and the second from late Saturday into early Sunday. The Friday wave also wants to spread slightly farther south. Up north we can see 2-4” of snow for Friday down to US 24, and then a coating to 2 inches down to I-70. We expect freezing temps or better to lift up to near I-70, effectively quashing any serious snot threat farther south. Then, we see snow return for Saturday night through Sunday midday in the north, with another 1-3 inches of potential. The snows do not look to be all that intense at any given time, but with the two pushes and the snow stretched out over a long period of time, it will allow it to stack up in northern Indiana.

Dry weather is back for Sunday afternoon and holds all the way into next Thursday. Cold temps will be here to start, with subzero temps over the northern half of the state Monday morning. But, by next Thursday, we will see a moderating push, and that day will likely be the first with a majority of the state above freezing for daytime highs.

Even though this forecast seems pretty blasé, we still are looking at cumulative snow totals being somewhat impressive by the end of the week. By Sunday, we can see cumulative snow totals of 1-4” over the southern half of the state, and 4-10” over the northern part of the state. While it is not as bad as some models were showing previously, it is still a pretty decent blanket of snow. The map above is a new look at potential snow depths as of Sunday afternoon.

No change in our extended 11-16 day forecast. Dry weather for next week continues through the 18^th. However, a powerful low comes out of the central plains and moves across our region for the 19^th and 20^th, and it can bring half to 1.5” of liquid equivalent precipitation potential.

Our active weather pattern kicked off this past Saturday night and yesterday, as a clipper system brought precipitation to a good part of the state. We saw accumulations come in at the lower end of our range up north, and we have a nice blanket of snow over the northern part of the state this morning. Colder air is here, as we are seeing some subzero temperature readings this morning, mostly in the NW part of the state. However, this is just the start of what will be a very active week, with 3 more systems crossing the state between now and this coming Sunday. All of those systems bring snow.

Not much goes on through the daylight hours today, as we await our next wave of action. Winds will be mostly west-northwest, keeping cold temps top of mind. Our next clipper system comes in quickly overnight tonight and is gone by shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. In its wake, we look for a coating to 2 inches of snow over a good chunk of the state, potentially all the way down to US 50. This is a very fast moving system, and will have a little bit of wind to blow the snow around just a bit. We should see sunshine by tomorrow afternoon.

We had been very concerned about a system coming up into the region for midweek this week. As with most strong winter storms, this one was going to be all about track. We are happy to report this morning that we look to dodge a significant bullet here, as the worst of the storm will stay south. Still, we do see our next batch of snow coming in for Wednesday morning through early afternoon. We look for a coating to 2 inches of snow over the northern half of the state, 1-3” of snow south of I-70, with most of that upper end of the range south of US 50. Like we said, the worst stays south of the river, and parts of northern KY can see 5-7 inches of snow. This track slowly worked south through the weekend, but we will monitor it through the rest of today and tomorrow morning to make sure it does not veer back north. This course alteration just again backs up our policy of staying away from throwing out snow totals on big events too far in advance. Keep that in mind as we talk about our 3^rd system for the week here in just a bit.

Dry, but cold weather is in for Wednesday night and Thursday, with high pressure setting up over northeast Indiana Thursday evening.

Behind that high, we have a significant system moving in for Friday and it holds over the northern part of the state all the way through Saturday midday. We are concerned about significant snows from US 24 northward, aided by some lake enhancement. Right now we see potential for 3-8 inches of snow from US 24 northward over the 30 hour period from Friday morning through Saturday noon. We expect basically nothing, maybe a coating to an inch or two totals south of US 24, and nothing south of SR 28. The reason we see nothing south of 28 is because we think temps have a good shot at making it to freezing or above in those areas for Friday and Saturday. This system is a good 5 days out this morning, so there is ample opportunity to see things change. However, this is not a system that is driven by “track” as much, as we think it is a feature born of warm air overrunning cold air. Add the lake enhancement, and it has a better chance at coming to fruition. At this time, our numbers are just working theories…and we will change and massage them as we move along. Still, it could put quite the exclamation point on the week.

We turn colder for the weekend with subzero temps in over a large part of northern Indiana Sunday morning. Dry weather is here for Monday through Wednesday, as the atmosphere resets following the active week.

So, while we miss the potential big system statewide at midweek, we still have some decent snow potential for the week, especially when you add up multiple little events. All, told, for the week from here forward (not including what snow we saw yesterday), we could see 8-12 inches of snow combined for the week from US 24 northward, 3-6 inches from US 24 to US 50, and a coating to 3 inches south of US 50. A nice, snowy start to the month of February. And, we continue to watch the end of week system for the north, to see if we can take those snow totals down just a bit. The map above puts that graphically – it shows combined snow totals from today through Sunday midday

The extended 11-16 day period the dry weather continuing for next Thursday the 15^th through Sunday the 18^th. However, a powerful low comes out of the central plains and moves across our region for the 19^th and 20^th, and it can bring half to 1.5” of liquid equivalent precipitation potential. Given the fact that we look to remain cold through most of the extended period, that would bring an argument of significant snow back in as we head toward president’s day.