No major changes this morning to the overall set up today through next Monday. We may be able to actually see a few slightly bigger lulls in action particularly tomorrow for 12-18 hours, but that is it.

Scattered showers will be moving over the state this morning, and may linger in NW parts of the state this afternoon into this evening. However, we likely see lesser elsewhere this afternoon. Rain totals can be a few hundredths to about a quarter of an inch over 50% of the state today.  Tomorrow we still have plenty of clouds but only a few sprinkles to .1” of rain over 40% of the state through the day, and that will be over southern Ohio.

Better rains are back for the weekend. Saturday will be an active rain day, with showers bringing .1”-.5” over 60% of the state. Then we take a slightly break with plenty of clouds still for a good chunk of Sunday. Sunday night brings the best rain chances of the next 5 days, as our cold front finally starts its move through the state. We like rain totals of .5”-1.25” from Sunday overnight through Monday, and coverage will be 80% of the state.

So, tweaks to our forecast this morning allow for a couple of slightly bigger breaks in the action, but still plenty of moisture over the next 5 days. We are leaving the door open for combined rains of a half to 1.5” yet from today through next Monday. The map above shows cumulative rain potential from today through next Monday night, but we feel this model map is likely over done by a good half inch in some places. The geographical coverage looks good. Temperatures will be above normal by the end of today and will stay in that zone tomorrow and the weekend.

We keep a dry out look for most of the rest of next week, at least Tuesday through Thursday. A System moving across the Deep South will try and throw some moisture up closer to the Ohio River valley late next week. Right now, we are keeping moisture out of the forecast for next Friday, but we see better clouds and may have to add some rain in our forecast tomorrow if current trends hold.

In the extended period, we look drier, with only one minor system around the 16^th. Rain totals will likely be under .25”.

We have a very unsettled weather pattern unfolding over the state through the rest of this week, the weekend and the early start of next week. So far, the week has been cold. We still see that today, especially this morning, but a significant warming push will be in for tomorrow through Sunday. A strong cold front takes temps back down for next week. Quite the roller coaster.

Precipitation is pushing up into the state from the south and west this morning. With the cold air in place as this upper low races in, we think that we have to keep an eye out for both wet snow and some light rain today. The snow potential will be the biggest this morning as we come off our coldest temps of the day, with scattered rain showers later this morning and afternoon. Action will be limited to central and southern Indiana where we have .02”-.25” liquid equivalent potential, and only clouds over the northern third of the state. Rains pick up over northern Indiana overnight tonight, where we can see a few hundredths to up to .4”

Tomorrow we can see additional scattered showers bringing .05”-.5” with 50% coverage, mostly over the northern half to two thirds of the state. Friday a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch can pop up over the southern third of the state, and nothing up north.

We start the weekend on Saturday with slightly more active weather statewide, where we have rain chances of .1”-.5” over 80% of the state, and will follow that up with a trace to .2” over only 40% of the state on Sunday. Finally, the big, impressive frontal passage works in Sunday night through early Monday, where we can see thunderstorms and some moderate to heavy rains. Rain totals there can be .25”-1.25” over 90% of the state. The heaviest rains and upper end of that range will be over the northern half to northern third of the state, and may end up developing close to the US 24 corridor. All told, in the 6 days combined, we can see rains totaling half to 1.5” over 90% of the state. The map above shows on model solution for rain potential today through next Monday night. But, we must reiterate…this will not be a constant rain scenario. In fact, there will many, many lulls and breaks in rain action. We just are unable to look at any day out of the next 6 and say we will be fully dry over the entire state.

We begin to dry down Monday midday and afternoon over the central and northern parts of the state, but it is conceivable that we see showers linger over the southern quarter to third of the state, especially along the Ohio River. The entire state will then be dry for next Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will drop off substantially behind the front, and we look for temps to be mostly normal to below normal for the balance of the week next week.

In the extended period, we continue to see the only threat of scattered showers coming with a minor upper level disturbance drifting across the great lakes around 13^th and perhaps a slightly better organized front for the 15^th. Moisture totals from each, at this point, look to be under .3”.

 

 

A dry day today, but we have some changes to the intermediate forecast this morning, and they are a move to a wetter forecast solution. Today we have high pressure in over the state, and that will bring sunshine and some fairly nice weather, all things considered. We will see clouds hold off on their build until tomorrow.

Our next system will be working into the region later tomorrow afternoon and evening into Thursday. Then the rains continue off and on through the entire day Thursday. We like rain totals from .1”-.6” over 90% of the state. These will mostly be gentle rains but will lead to enough moisture to slow potential for field work once again. Action tomorrow will be limited mostly to areas of central and southern Indiana, as this disturbance builds in initially from the south and west. Temps will be the warmest of the week on Thursday as south winds reach a zenith ahead of the cold frontal passage.

Changes to our forecast come for the finish of the week and weekend. We actually think it will be difficult to differentiate between waves of moisture coming through as we head toward our next system. In fact, we look for moisture to be with us off and on through Friday, Saturday and Sunday, right on through early next week. It won’t rain constantly in there, but we see several disturbances coming through, punctuated by a final strong front late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. That last front still has some thunderstorm potential. The best way to look at this set up is to suggest combined 6 day rain totals, from tomorrow night through next Tuesday morning at .5”-1.5” over 90% of the state. Again, it will not rain constant through the period, but we also are not sure we can call for any specific day where there is no rain threat. AT this point, to try and finesse the forecast that much, it’s just asking for trouble. The map above shows combined rain potential through next Midnight next Monday night.

We still look for colder air to return behind the front that finally leaves next Tuesday. However, we also should be dry for most of the rest of the week as those temps work back closer to normal or even a bit below. We kick off the extended period with a threat of action on the 13^th and the 15^th, but both fronts look relatively minor, and the potential for a strong front passing by to the south looks to stay well to the south.

 

After a chilly weekend, we should see slightly better weather to start the week. A warm front sitting off to the west will interact with the state through the day today, although we cannot sit here and say we will see a full out warm front passage. Winds have a hard time doing more than turning west today, and we will not see significant warming. In fact, moderating temps will be all you get us to talk up today and tomorrow, as sunshine probably plays the biggest role in getting us a little farther away from those cold temps that we were stuck with this weekend. We have no major weather action today or tomorrow to deal with.

Our next front starts to nose closer on Wednesday, and we likely see some decent southwest flow ahead of it. This southwest flow will bump temps up somewhat, and will fuel some precipitation development along the front. That being said, we are knocking the system timing back about 12-18 hours now. This morning, the front looks like it will wait to trigger any significant precipitation until late Wednesday evening into Thursday. Then the rains continue off and on through the entire day Thursday. We like rain totals from .1”-.6” over 90% of the state. These will mostly be gentle rains but will lead to enough moisture to slow potential for field work once again. Temps will be the warmest of the week on Thursday as south winds reach a zenith ahead of the cold frontal passage.

We dry down some on Friday and Saturday as cooler, fast moving high pressure comes in behind the front. Clouds may hold for a good part of Friday, but we expect some sun on Saturday. The major disturbance of our 10 day period is one we have been talking about for quite some time. This system looks to come through in 2 pieces. The first wave hits for Sunday, with clouds building Saturday night. This will bring minor rains for the most part, a few hundredths to half an inch over about 50% of the state. Temps will be normal to above normal on good south west flow. After a little lull from Sunday night through the first half of Monday, the second, stronger wave arrives Monday afternoon and rips across the state through Monday overnight and the first half of Tuesday. That second part has much more rain, with potential of .5”-1.5” over 90% of the state. There can be some thunderstorm action too, as the atmosphere gets very unstable in there. This will be a significant system, as we have been talking up for about a week. The timing has not strayed much from our initial 5^th-7^th time frame…and so we have strong confidence in our forecast. The map above shows 10 day rain totals through midweek next week.

Colder air comes in behind that storm complex, and we retreat back to near normal levels. WE should be dry from the 8^th on into the start of the extended period. In the extended forecast window, we are watching a strong storm complex exiting the central and southern plains around the 11^th into the 12^th. Right now, there appears to be potential for that system to miss us to the south. However we think that the system will track farther north as we get closer to the event, so we are looking at another potential big rain maker for those days here.

Overall, the forecast still does not look to have large dry windows to work with. Moderating temps will help, but we still likely do not see any more than 2-3 day workable harvest windows, and if we get the heavier rains early next week that we expect, that will slow things further.