The forecast looks pretty nice this morning as we move into an extended period of dry weather. Clouds may take their own sweet time breaking up here in the short term as cooler air is in place after following the frontal boundary in yesterday. However, as you look at the surface map, this is one of those rare times that you see no significant front anywhere across the central and western US, only high pressure on the way. So, clouds will break up and move out, and we will see warmer, drier air in here eventually. Today will just be a transition day, with no new precipitation.

The dry pattern continues tomorrow through Saturday. Temperatures will head back to normal by midweek and will be above normal to finish the week and for the weekend. The map above shows temps in relation to normal this coming Saturday afternoon. Evaporation rates will be near maximum by midweek and with strong southwest breezes, we should see excellent dry down. Harvest should be able to ramp back up rather quickly, especially in areas in central and southern Indiana where we did not see as heavy of rain over the Saturday night-Sunday period.

We do have a minor front that looks to move through the state next Sunday. However, that front loses a lot strength and most of its moisture before arriving. Therefore, we look for only a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth over about 60% of the state for next Sunday, and only a wind shift and slightly cooler temps behind the front.

Behind that system, we go back to dry weather  for next week. No new rain on the way Monday through at least Thursday. In fact, it may be closer to the 28^th-29^th before a good front can move in. That front still has rain potential up to at least .75” over 80% of the state.

So, a nice harvest window is about to unfold over the state. It may take a day or two to get things suitable, but then we should be able to run full through most of the rest of the month.

Some of the remains of Nate made it into Indiana late yesterday, a little sooner than we were concerned about when we last updated you late last week. But, that means everything is gone this morning, and we should be looking at a couple of days of nice weather here. However, we do have some changes in the forecast this morning and will be looking at 2 systems in the coming 10 days. Today looks nice with sunshine all day, tomorrow will see sun giving way to clouds.

A system is coming together today in the central plains and will kick eastward. This will bring good rains across the western and central Corn Belt, and eventually they will get here. Rains will be most frequent through Wednesday, but we will likely see some scattered action moving into far western and southwestern IN later tomorrow afternoon and overnight tomorrow night. Rain totals from tomorrow late afternoon through Wednesday will be .25”-1.25” over 80% of the state. Thunderstorms will be key to getting into the upper end of the range, and the best place for those will be northern Indiana, particularly NW parts of the state. This will provide another harvest interruption. The map above is a snapshot of the system as it starts to move into the state.

Following that system, we are dry Thursday through Saturday with sunshine, normal to above normal temperatures and some good breezes developing. In fact, we think that we see some pretty strong southwest winds for Friday and Saturday, providing some good drying. Whether it will be enough, though, is still up in the air.

Our second system moves in for Sunday, bringing .25”-.75” over about 80% of the state. This front is a slow sagging type front coming from NW to SE across the state, but looks much more impressive off to the northwest over northern IL and WI. So, we look for decreasing rain totals as it moves over the state from Sunday morning to Sunday evening, from NW to SE. The best rains will be up north, lower end of the range rains down south.

Behind that system, we look to be dry for all of next week. Sunshine will combine with near normal temps over the state, and we should see evaporation rates at a near maximum. This will promote good drying. While temps are near normal, keep in mind that normals for the month are falling every day, as we see significant drops in normal temps from Oct 1-Oct 31. Still, though, this is not a bad forecast at all.

In the extended period, we are most interested in a front for the 21^st over the state, as it looks to bring .25”-1” rain totals and another 80% coverage set up. This front has been consistently on our projections for nearly a week now, so we have good confidence this morning that we will be seeing another good threat of rain in and around this time frame. Behind that front we cool off farther, and we think there is good likelihood of frost after the 21^st/22^nd period.

The remains of Nate came into the state yesterday, which was earlier than expected in our discussion last Friday. However, Nate made landfall along the Gulf Coast about 12-15 hours sooner than anticipated too, so that makes sense he would get here sooner. In any case, it’s not a bad thing, because we are seeing the remains leave quicker too. This morning we are dealing with the last of the moisture associated with Nate over eastern Ohio, and starting to dry out to the west. WE should see drying continue through the entire day tomorrow. Sunshine overspreads the state today, and holds tomorrow. Clouds develop very late tomorrow evening and overnight.

Those clouds will be in ahead of our next weather system, on the way for Wednesday. A nice frontal complex is coming together today in the central plains and will exit to the east and northeast tonight. This will spread rain over the western and central Corn Belt tomorrow, and showers move into Indiana tomorrow evening and overnight. The rains get here Wednesday and will take up most of the day. We are looking at rain totals of .25”-1” over about 80% of the state. The heaviest rains we like up over northeastern parts of the state, and it will take thunderstorms to get to the upper end of the range there. WE should see all rain done by shortly after sunset Wednesday evening.

Dry Thursday, Friday and Saturday over the Buckeye state. We see temps normal to above normal and as we work on to the backside of a strong high, we should see impressive southwest winds develop for Friday and Saturday. These will bump temps up, and should provide some good drying. Evaporation rates will max out over the period at about .25” per day. Will that be enough drying to get back into the fields, after the soggy weekend and the midweek event? Time will tell. But, 12-25 mph winds won’t hurt.

Our next system is in on Sunday, and will bring the potential for fieldwork to a halt again. This front is more of a NW to SE moving “sagging” front, but still has the potential to bring good rains. WE like rain totals again of .25”-1” with 90% coverage. This time, the heaviest rains will be in the northern third of the state, mostly north of US 30, and in particular in NW Ohio. Everything will be done by midnight Sunday night. The map above is a snapshot of early Sunday morning’s potential set up.

Next week should turn drier then, as strong high pressure comes in and takes control from Monday through Friday. Temps will be near normal, and sunshine should aid drying. However, winds are not going to be as strong as before the Sunday system. Our next front to watch should be on the way for late the 21^st and mostly the 22^nd. This front looks great off to the west, and as long as it holds together, will bring us rain potential of at least .25”-.75” over 75% of the state.

 

Another wave of moisture moves over the state today, but we will see the best action stay mostly north. Southern Indiana gets little to no action today. We are putting rain totals today still in a wide range, from .1”-1.0”, but in order to get to the upper end of the range, we will need to see thunderstorms develop. The thunderstorm threat this morning looks significantly lower than 24 hours ago…so most areas should not really test the 1” part of the range today. Rain chances are the best north of US 24, and we see no rains south of I-70.

Saturday starts of dry, but we have one more final sweeping line of showers and thunderstorms that move through late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. This batch of moisture looks stronger this morning, and will likely have some thunderstorm action to go with it. We will put rain totals at .2”-1.5” over 70% of the state. The best rains will be in central and southern Indiana, while NW Indiana may see nothing. Thunderstorms have the potential to be strong. The map above shows rain totals through Saturday evening.

Tropical storm Nate could influence weather in parts of the state early next week. The storm will make landfall along the gulf coast sometime Sunday afternoon, and will rip north while curving northeast. As the front that gives us the rain between now and Sunday morning slides off to our southeast, it will act as a nice little superhighway for the storm to move up through the interior. Ohio will feel most of the brunt of this set up, but we won’t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms on the NW side of the storms remains, tracking into southern Indiana on Monday. The rains do not look super impressive, but may be able to bring up to half an inch of rain in over southern Indiana. Some models want to bring the moisture much farther north, but we are not going to take that step yet, as the track of the storm as it hits the Gulf coast will play a large role in where the remains go up here. The map of Nate’s potential tracks here suggest we are right to suggest this may not be a big event for the entire state, but rather a glancing blow to the far southeast. It will be a very interesting start to the week for sure.

No matter how the week starts, we look for a mostly dry balance of the week from Tuesday on through Friday. Temps pull back closer to normal and we should see some decent drying for those days. Next weekend is getting just a little bit more interesting. There is a strong system developing over the northern plains late next week. The recent pattern has taken these lows and lifted them to the northeast into Ontario, stretching the fronts back into the central plains. This system tries to do the same, but may not have as much of a northern pull. For now, we are leaving our dry forecast for next weekend alone, but we may have to adjust as we move into early next week. Still, even if we do have to bring some moisture into northern Indiana, 70% of the state looks to stay sunny and dry through the weekend and we will see strong, southwest, warming winds that will really accelerate drying.  So stay tuned on this.

The extended period is getting some better definition this morning and is also getting wetter. We have the aforementioned front and system moving through for the 16^th into the 17^th bringing .25”-1” over 80% of the state, and then a second strong front around 20^th and 21st that can bring another .25”-1.5” of rain over 75% of the state. Those two systems in the extended period can bring two stages of cooler weather in, and we may be looking at some potential first frost temperature levels after the 21^st.