We are adjusting the forecast drier this morning. The simple synopsis is that we have minor threat of rain over far northern Indiana tomorrow morning and midday, nothing farther south. Then, the front for early next week has fizzled to basically nothing, and the front for the 6^th is gone. We may not see our first good look at rain potential until we get closer to the 9^th and 10^th. Let’s break it down.

High pressure is in over the state today. Temperatures will be cooler than last weekend and the start to this week to be sure, but we still are mostly above normal statewide today. We do have a minor upper level disturbance and secondary front that sweeps through tomorrow. This system brings a few spits and sprinkles worth a few hundredths to .1” over far northern Indiana, mostly north of US 30. The better focus of precipitation will be east in NW OH and then in SE MI as well. That skew means in Indiana, slightly better threats may be seen tomorrow morning in NE parts of the state. But, let’s not get cute: there is not any significant moisture to work with here. And…areas from US 30 southward are day all day tomorrow.

The weekend is dry, and now we see basically no moisture for early next week. The front will still work through, but the air mass it arrives into is so dry, there is not enough moisture to force through and make it a rain maker for us. For semantics, we will leave a few hundredths to a tenth in spots, but honestly, this front is a non-issue for us now. IT will swing winds around, but that is basically it. It will be a dry frontal passage. Without that front, the rest of the week is dry. The front we had been watching for the 6^th was minor and fickle to start with, but now looks to meet the same demise of prior fronts, and likely does not even really make it through.

With all that said, we do still see potential of rain around the 9^th into the 10^th with a strong front moving in from the west and north. The initial good rains may lift northeast with the low into Canada, very similar to what happened with moisture on yesterday’s frontal passage. But, we see a secondary surge of moisture right now for late the 9^th into the 10^th that may be able to bring .25”-1” still to the area. We will be exceptionally dry by then…so this front has to be a strong one with good moisture flow into it back to the west in order to make something happen here.

Temps through the next 2 weeks will be normal to some above normal. This pattern fits exceptionally well for harvest into early October, and we think we should be able to make good progress there.

 

No real changes this morning in the short term, but we may have to make some tweaks in the intermediate and longer term part of the forecast down the line, but those tweaks may be drier, if we do end up making them. Here over the next 24 hours, we have antoher hot, dry day over the state. Temps will be above normal once again with fully sunshine

Our next front arrives tomorrow, but there are no changes in our thoughts of it being a mostly dry frontal passage. Moisture just gets wrung out off to the west. We see only a small chance of spits and sprinkles, with potential of a few hundredths to a tenth. Those small chances have the best likelihood over central and southern Indiana. We will see a  wind shift and cooler air arriving behind the front, but in general, like we said yesterday, if you are looking for rain, you will be disappointed.

Behind the front, we see temps cooler, but still mostly normal to slightly above. Highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s are likely through Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. We stay dry. The only threat we need to monitor is an upper level disturbance moving over Michigan on Friday, but it looks like the focal point of that system will be a little farther east and south, for the thumb in Michigan and NW OH. So, while we still won’t rule out a little bit of light moisture over far northern tier counties of Indiana. There is only a little threat there and completely no threat south of US 24.

After a dry, pleasant weekend with strong high pressure in control and a lot of sunshine, the forecast can get a little more interesting nearly next week. We have been looking for an early October front for the better part of 2 weeks now in our daily updates. Models have become very wishy washy on this front this morning, taking almost al moisture out last night, and not really backtracking this morning. As of right now, we are leaving our forecast alone, looking for .25”-.6” rain totals over about 80% of the state. We are doing this because we have seen the front and it has been fairly consistent over the past 10 days. We won’t throw out that consistency over a recent change. However, if we continue to see a lack of available moisture, we will have to tweak the forecast for early next week some…as we mentioned above. Stay tuned. It would not be a complete surprise, because our air mass is becoming quite dry, and dry air can be a front killer in the fall.

We are leaving two systems in for the extended period this morning. The first comes in from the south and west around the 6^th and will have .1”-.5” rain potential with coverage at 60% of the state. The second system is more impressive, and will be a strong, sweeping front that brings .25”-1” rain potential for the 9^th and some of it may linger into the 10^th. We still like coverage at 90% of the state for that system,

Unseasonably warm, dry weather remains over the state as we start another week. This weather is nearly perfect for harvest, as the heat and sunshine is aiding drydown. Now, crops that can use one more “finishing” rain will be left wanting this week. Even as a front moves through at midweek, it will do so with no signifciant rain potential. Temps will be well above normal today and tomorrow, before starting to ease back on Wednesday.

Speaking of Wednesday, that is when our next front does in fact arrive. However, at this time, we are only looking for clouds and a few spits and sprinkles. The significant rains the front has farther west are all gone when it finally arrives here. In fact, we likely are only looking at a shift in wind direction, and a cooler batch of air to signal the front moving through. If you are looking for rain, you will be disappointed at midweek.

Behind the front, we see temps cooler, but still mostly normal to slightly above. Highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s are likely through Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. We stay dry. The only threat we need to monitor is an upper level disturbance moving over Michigan on Friday that may try and swing some scattered light shower action down into extreme northern tier counties of Indiana (LaPorte, St. Joe, Elkhart, Lagrange, Noble, Steuben and Dekalb) there on Friday morning into midday. Better rain potential will be farther north in MI. The rest of the state sees nothing.

A better front develops early next week late Monday night into early Tuesday. This front is the one we have been mentioning for the Oct 3-4 period going back in our forecasts almost 10 days or more. It is coming just a little quicker, but still has potential for .25”-.6” rain totals over about 80% of the state. It moves through fast: by midday Tuesday, it is already gone to the east. The front moves quick enough and the air/ground will be dry enough from our previous pattern that the moisture likely soaks in quickly and will lead to very few actual delays behind the front. The rest of the 10 day period is dry through the end of Thursday. The map above shows a snapshot of the potential set up next Tuesday morning.

 

For the extended 11-16 day period, we have two systems moving through. The first is a system with origins in the central plains that lifts up from the southwest into the state for Friday the 6^th. This system has rains of .1”-.5” with coverage at 60% of the state. This system is much more impressive back over parts of MO and may rain itself out by a good deal before it actually can get in here. The other system is much more impressive, and will be a sweeping front that brings .25”-1” rain potential for the 9^th and some of it may linger into the 10^th. Coverage will be 90% of the state for that system, as it sits right now. Temps through the extended period will be mostly normal, and overnight lows actually can be above normal for early October. We have no concern about frost until after the 22^nd of October, and it may push more toward the 26^th.

No major change in thought process this morning. Temps were very warm yesterday, reaching 90 degrees late in the afternoon over northern Indiana, which was a little sooner than expected. Still, temperatures will remain well above normal through the balance of the week, weekend and the first half of this week. It will not be surprising to see some records challenged over the coming 4-5 days. Now, these warm temps, especially with the moisture laden air (it’s very humid) means we can see some thunderstorms fire off in spots. Last evening these were mostly along the OH line and up into MI, but we need to watch closely over the rest of the state during this warm spell.

Our next front arrives on Wednesday. As we have mentioned previously, this front will have looked much more impressive over the western corn belt from late Monday through Tuesday, but will be running out of gas as if finally arrives Wednesday. This front will have rained itself out for the most part off to the west. Here we are looking for clouds and just a minor threat of rains, perhaps with totals of a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 50% of the state. This should not be significant enough to promote major harvest delays. The biggest change we see with the front is a big cool down behind it. Temperatures will drop substantially back to normal levels at least, and there is a threat of slightly below normal temps. This will yield a drop of 20 degrees or more from Tuesday highs to Thursday and Friday highs. Again…these will be normal temps for late September…but a stark contrast to what we are going through right now. The last part of the week will be dry, as will the weekend. The map above shows cumulative rain potential now through October 1.

In the extended period, we have a continuation of a pattern that features upper level high pressure in over southern Canada and the eastern US. We do have a minor disturbance working through the great lakes around the 4^th that can trigger scattered showers in Michigan. We need to watch this for movement down into northern Indiana. But, at this time, that looks to be a minor concern. A second system with slightly better potential arrives late 11-16 day period. This front can trigger up to .3” of rain, with 60% coverage, but it also looks similar to the front we expect next week, which means we may see it rain itself out before arriving here. Overall, the extended period looks mostly favorable for harvest as well, at this point.