Partly to mostly sunny and pleasant over the northern half to two thirds of the state today. However, Harvey will impact southern areas later this afternoon and through the night tonight. We have left our rain forecast alone once again. We look for rains from Harvey to stay south and east of a line from Vincennes to Richmond. WE are moving the heaviest rain totals to just south of the Ohio River into Kentucky now. We do not think there will be any threat of 3” rains in Indiana. Rain totals south and east of that line will be from .25”-2” with coverage at nearly 100%. North and west of the line, nothing but clouds. The lowest rain totals will be closer to the Vincennes to Richmond line.

Tomorrow, as we start the weekend we have to deal with clouds trying to leave the southern half of the state. There may be a few spits, sprinkles or showers still hanging around close to or after sunrise, but they move away quickly and the clouds will break up. WE expect sun over the northern third of the state all day, clouds giving way to sun over the rest of the state for the balance of Saturday. Continued sunny for Sunday and Monday.

A front sweeps into the state late Monday night, bringing rain and thunderstorms near midnight over the northern third of the state. That rain sags south and east through Tuesday. Rain totals can be from .1”-.7” with coverage at about 65% of the state. The best threat for the upper end of the range will be in the northern third to quarter of the state, because that is where we see the biggest thunderstorm threat around midnight Monday night. The map above shows a potential set up around midnight Monday night. The rain bands weaken from there.

Behind that system we are back to drier air for the rest of the week. A system for late Saturday into Sunday looks to stay east, hitting mainly Ohio, while we see some blow over clouds here, and no significant precipitation. In the extended 11-16 day window we are continuing to keep an eye on the 13^th-14^th period for a front, but the latest models have decreased that projection dramatically, and we may end up with little to no rain through mid-September. We want to see how these models evolve over the weekend.

Also, you will be hearing a lot of talk about Irma, a hurricane in the Atlantic. It is way too soon to tell where this girl is going to go…but it could have an impact on the US mainland late next weekend. We will be watching and will update you on any potential eastern Corn Belt impacts after the holiday.

No change in our forecast this morning. Sunshine continues to be a dominant part of the forecast over a large part of the state today. However, clouds are going to work through northern Indiana in the morning and we can’t rule out a spit, sprinkle or random shower or two. Temps will be pleasant this afternoon. The southern half of the state likely sees full sunshine today.

Harvey is on its way to southern parts of the state and like we said yesterday, he will make life a little interesting to finish the week. Sunshine is likely over most of the state for tomorrow, but clouds will be on the increase in southern Indiana as the day wears on. We are bringing rain in later tomorrow afternoon and evening in far southern Indiana, but are leaving our boundary alone, looking for rains south and east of a line from Vincennes to Richmond. Rain totals are also exactly the same this morning, looking for areas closer to the river to receive 1-3”, but most of the rain areas will be from .25”-1”, and the lower end of the range will be seen closer to that Vincennes to Richmond line. The rest of the state stays dry, and even mostly clear through Friday night and Saturday

The rest of the holiday weekend forecast is still dry with sunshine and blue sky and high pressure in control. Heading into next Tuesday, we see a small front working across the state. Rain actually starts closer to midnight Monday night and continues through Tuesday. Rain totals look slightly better this morning, and we are opening up the door to rain totals of .1”-.7” with coverage at about 65% of the state.

We dry down behind that system for the rest of the week, Wednesday through at least Friday. In the extended window, we are keeping an eye on the period around the 9^th and 10^th for some minor rains, but the bulk of them seem to miss. That sets a better chance of rains round the 13^th and 14^th with rains of .25”-.75” possible over about 70% of the state.

 

 

Drier weather moves into the state today after a couple of days of damp, soggy weather. Rains were much more intense in some areas than others, with the Fort Wayne area reporting over 3” in spots yesterday morning, which came as a surprise to us here. In general, the action was hit and miss, and there are a number of areas that were disappointed with the rains over the past 2 days. In any case, our threat of rain diminishes dramatically over a large part of the state as we move through the next 10 days, and only slightly picks up in the extended 11-16 day forecast window. For today and tomorrow, we should see the return of sunshine over a large part of the state although temps will be cooler behind the front that moved through. There will be some transitional cloudiness out there, particularly tomorrow, as a minor trough and dissipating boundary slips in over northern Indiana. We remain confident that it will not trigger any significant precipitation, and just clouds over the northern third of the state. Farther south, full sunshine is expected tomorrow.

Harvey will make life a little interesting to finish the week. Sunshine is likely over most of the state for Friday, but clouds will be on the increase in southern Indiana as the day wears on. We continue to be convinced that at least some moisture related to Harvey is going to make it into southern Indiana, and we are honing in on the exact track. Right now, we like most of the core of the circulation to stay south of the OH river. But, we can see rains from late Friday through the overnight and through midday Saturday south and east of a line from Vincennes to Richmond. Rain totals closer to the river can still be 1-3”, but most of the rain areas, will be from .25”-1”, and the lower end of the range will be seen closer to that Vincennes to Richmond line. The rest of the state stays dry, and even mostly clear through Friday night and Saturday. The map above shows potential set up of Harvey’s remains Friday late afternoon.

The rest of the holiday weekend features sunshine and blue sky with high pressure in control. However, the latest European model has attempted to bring a little more cloud cover and even some light showers in for Labor Day. This does not lead us to change our forecast at this time, but is simply a point to watch going forward for any potential forecast changes. We think better scattered shower chances may emerge next Tuesday, with a few hundredths to at most a quarter of an inch over about 60% of the state. This is not exceptionally well organized and we are thinking it could fall apart…but for now, we will insert it into our outlook for next week, especially since, it looks like this moisture is flaring up at the expense of a system we had originally been looking for a few days later around the 7^th.

We look to dry back down for Wednesday through Friday of next week behind that mini system. In the extended window, two fronts seem to want to flank the state around the 9^th and 10^th, but the current set up would lead to them missing the region with most moisture. We think that solution and set up is likely still evolving, and we are electing to keep moisture around for the 10^th with totals half an inch or less. A stronger front develops on the backside of an upper level high pressure dome for the 13^th into the 14^th with rains of .25”-.75” possible over about 70% of the state.

With regard to temperatures…we have heard increasing questions about frost, and yesterday saw a meteorologist try and advance a threat of frost over parts of the western corn belt and upper Midwest next week, particularly Thursday. He was making his argument based on 5000 foot temps and a completely clear sky. We are not in that camp at all…no concern about frost out there, and there is no reason at all for anyone to project frost talk here either. This was the same outlet that tried to advance a theory of upper 30s over parts of IN and OH a couple of weeks ago too…which was nowhere close. What we mean by all of this is that you need to weigh things carefully. After seeing temps rise to normal and above normal levels as we finish this week, it will be cooler next week. In fact, we are now looking at below normal temps for a good chunk of next week. But taking it right to scaremongering about frost is not even close to being right at this point. Below are maps of morning lows on Thursday morning (left) and Friday morning (right) across a good chunk of the corn belt – according to the coldest model out there at 5000 feet at to this point.

No significant change to our forecast this morning. Some moisture moved through yesterday, and we do not think we are done yet today. Our cold front is still off to the west and will move through later this afternoon. We look for scattered showers through the day, no more than a few hundredths up to .4” tops, but coverage will be only around 50% today. There will be a lot of areas that miss out. Everything will be done by midnight tonight.

Dry for tomorrow, and that dryness continues through at least the end of the week. Our concern about a weak trough for Thursday over the northern part of the state has been allayed, and we don’t think there is any action popping up over the state in the meantime. Temps will be on the cooler side of normal.

The period we are keeping an eye on is late Friday night through midday Saturday. There seems to be more of a push toward seeing the remains of Harvey come up into southern Indiana for that period. This is being fueled by Harvey moving back slightly over the gulf and then looping around to make a second landfall. This would allow some strengthening, and the momentum may create a more northerly path. We are not completely sold on this solution yet, as these tracks can get really crazy, but this has more traction today than yesterday, and we would put the potential for this happening a little higher. IF that turned out to be the case, southern Indiana could see 1-3 inches of rain, and fringe totals of .25”-1” could move up into central Indiana, near the I-70 corridor. For now, we will leave our forecast unchanged, and that is still mostly dry…but keep this potential rain event in mind as we look forward. The northern part of the state will be unaffected. The map above is the Canadian model take on the situation. The European is much stronger and wetter, while the GFS is nonchalant.

The rest of the Labor Day weekend through midweek next week should be dry.

Temps will be moving to normal levels to start, but we do expect a pull back to below normal temps later next week as colder air comes in out of Canada. We do not have any concern about early frost, even though that talking point seems to be making the rounds. We are watching for a front bringing .25”-.75” rains around the 7^th, and then in the extended window another front around the 12^th.