South America weather:

• The pattern is mostly unchanged in Brazil but there will be better thunderstorm development this afternoon-tomorrow, in southeast Brazil, including Matto Grosso do Sul through Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with totals of .5-1.5” but they won’t spread to the north.
• The rest of the country seems mostly dry through tomorrow with very few pop up showers anywhere.
• A line of showers develops Sunday night-Monday morning in eastern Matto Grosso but it doesn’t seem to hold together well, so it’s mostly hit and miss action from Sunday night-Tuesday.
• By Tuesday night-Wednesday, they’ll see some nice circulation in south/southeast Brazil that will slowly move showers north, through MG, Goias, and western Minas Gerais, with these showers possibly a seed for more action later in the week.
• Tuesday night-Friday, I like 1-3” combined with 90% coverage over all growing areas, including the driest areas of northeast Brazil like Bahia, northeast Minas Gerais, and all the drier areas should pick up very good rains next week.
• Following that, they’ll see hit and miss action with no good organization through next weekend.
• There is a circulation off the Atlantic coast of Brazil that could put together a front that sweeps through Brazil late next Sunday the 15^th through the 17^th and brings another 1-2” of rain.
• Temps in Brazil trending above normal over most of the country, with the warmest temps in northeast Brazil peaking this weekend before pulling back closer to normal.
• Strong high pressure sits over Buenos Aires province right now and holds through the weekend, but there will be a few scattered showers moving over the northern half of Argentina through tomorrow and Sunday totaling .5-1” in spots and staying just north of the hardest hit areas from earlier this week.
• A few more scattered thunderstorms pop up Sunday-Monday and that seems to be the story over the next 4-5 days as there won’t be any significant frontal boundary action, but that may change by next Tuesday.
• A strong front will work through the northern half of Argentina that could give .5-2” totals in localized areas and it will stay just north of the hardest hit areas again.
• After that, Argentina wants to trend a little bit drier, with just scattered showers possible in northern Argentina on Wednesday-Thursday but it’s not a big crop growing area.
• A front is then set to move over BA, southern Cordoba, and La Pampa on Friday-Saturday, bringing .5-1” totals with coverage at 75-80%, before adding more moisture to itself and dropping a little more rain in the central and northern areas.
• Temps will trend normal to below normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea weather:

• They’re continuing to see temps normal to slightly above in the region but it is starting to trend toward colder temps over the next 7-10 days.
• Zero and sub-zero temps likely over most of the Ukraine this weekend and early next week.
• A system coming through will bring snow to Ukraine and central Russia totaling 4-8” over the next 2-3 days in eastern Ukraine and central Russia.
• Temps stay zero and below through the middle of next week before things begin to moderate next week on Thursday-Friday with a 20-25-degree surge in temps thanks to strong south winds.
• It’s short lived as temps fall right back down next weekend.
• Two more fronts come through in the forecast so moisture should be decent.
• Crops don’t like the up and down temps but if they can keep the snowpack around it should be okay.

 

 

Corn Belt weather:

• High pressure is working into the Corn Belt this morning but there is still some light snow in the OH River valley.
• The high is bringing cold air in with it and temps will drop into the single digits and below zero from today-Sunday, and the deep freeze will extend down to the I-80 to I-90 corridor across the Upper Midwest and western Corn Belt.
• Winds turn to the south on Monday and temps will moderate as moisture will increase; clouds beging to buld into the western Corn Belt by Monday afternoon.
• Lights snows break out by Monday night in MN and WI before a big low kicks out of the plains and into the western Corn Belt by Tuesday.
• This will lead to overrunning precipitation north of I-80 on Tuesday in MI, WI, MN, and northern IA, but the circulation will keep the heaviest snows further north through the first part of Tuesday.
• Later Tuesday-Wednesday, action begins to develop along the cold front that sweeps through IL, IN, and OH, with rain and thunderstorms possible in IL and IN, down through the mid-MS River valley totaling .25-1” of moisture.
• Cold air comes in quickly behind the front but I’m not ready to call for rain changing to snow in a lot of areas.
• There will be snow in WI and eastern IA, but the wildcard is IL as some areas see rain changing to snow, while IN and OH see all rain before it stops.
• The cold air will include a clipper system bringing light snow to the Upper Midwest Wednesday night-Thursday before a minor low develops Thursday afternoon-Friday, bringing light rains to lower MI, IL, IN, OH, totaling .25” or less.
• Cold air redevelops behind that second wave and bring better snow chances going into next weekend.
• It’s an active pattern but the models have had trouble zeroing in on until you get into the 4-5 day period, so things are going to happen, but timing and amounts are a little up in the air.

 

Deep South weather:

• A fairly stormy period is ahead for the Deep South as we have moisture developing just off the Gulf today and it’ll spread north and east across AL, GA, and SC through tonight as liquid precipitation, but the freezing line will be advancing farther south.
• Light snow may be possible in north GA, eastern TN, and NC/SC, with the heaviest potential snowfall in NC and northern SC, where they could see several inches; 1-4” could even sneak down to Atlanta.
• The western part of the Deep South will only see liquid precipitation as will areas to the south along the Gulf, including southern GA, FL, and even southern SC, where rains could total .25-1.25” of moisture.
• This system does move away fairly quickly and high pressure builds in behind it quickly, already sitting over TN by Saturday night and clearing out skies across the Deep South, holding control until Monday.
• A cold front is ready to move into western areas of the Deep South Tuesday afternoon, crossing the MS River valley Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, bringing scattered light rains showers totaling .25-.5” with coverage at 60% from Wednesday through Thursday.
• A strong front will bring in thunderstorms late in the week over AR and LA through next Friday and extending through KY and TN.
• Cold air will be advancing south so some of that moisture may end up changing to snow.
• The front falls apart as it moves further east so MS, GA, AL, NC, and SC won’t see more than scattered showers over 40-50% of those areas, totaling .25” or less.
• High pressure moves in next weekend with colder air again trying to sag south, which could mean scattered light precipitation around the 16-17.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is building over the great plains right now, bringing sunshine to the northern plains today and holding everywhere through Sunday.
• There is some moisture over TX and OK to start today but they fall apart, so the central and southern plains will be dry by late this afternoon.
• Cold air is in play as zero degree temps are reaching through the northern half of the plains and the intermountain west.
• South winds emerge on Sunday to moderate those cold temps to near normal to slightly above, with the zero degree line retreating to ND and SD.
• Monday looks very dry and windy over most of the plains as low pressure moves into NE and KS, with some light snows possible in ND.
• The biggest precipitation likely falls Tuesday-Wednesday with low pressure in southeast NE early Tuesday morning, with snow falling in SD and ND totaling several inches and strong winds keep the snow going through at least Tuesday night.
• Wednesday-Thursday look mostly dry, except for scattered flurries in ND and SD on Wedensday night.
• A secondary low moves into the central plains on Thursday but it won’t pick up good mositure until it’s in the western Corn Belt, but it will kick up strong gusty winds in the plains at midweek.
• A strong arctic high moves in over the northern half of the plains on Friday, with temps pushing below zero in ND and SD, and the zero degree line pushes down to southern NE.
• The central plains doesn’t see a lot of moisture until thunderstorms kick up in OK and TX on Friday-Saturday, but that’s part of a front that’s more impressive in the Corn Belt.
• High pressure is then in contol for next weekend.
• Temps in the plains will be a roller coaster, very cold to start before moderating over the weekend/early next week before bitter cold air moves back in by the end of next week.

A fairly simple outlook this morning, as very little has changed. However, we still see a very active pattern here over the state, regardless of the word “simple that was used only 1 sentence ago. Let’s run through it.

Mostly dry weather here in the short term. Outside of a little bit of lake effect action over the far northern reaches of the state today, we should see mostly sunny, but cold weather for today, tomorrow and Sunday. Temps will be well below normal, and we likely will not be able to climb above the freezing mark with any large geographical coverage until early next week. A strong, upper level arctic high that plops right on top of the Hoosier state Sunday midday will see to that. So, look for the cold to stay put for right now.

Dry weather actually goes through Monday as well. But, the difference will be strong southwest winds that develop on the backside of that strong arctic high. That will moderate temps some and also start to bring clouds in, ahead of our next system.

Light rains and snows kick off overnight Monday night. We can see some accumulations over the northern third of the state where cold air is still reluctant to leave Monday night. But, through the day Tuesday, and Tuesday night, we will see significant rains moving through. We still like rain totals of at least .25” and are bumping the upper end of our range to 1” with coverage at 100% of the state. The best rains come Tuesday night. The map shows cumulative rain totals through midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Cold air blasts in behind the moisture. Right now, we still think that the moisture is gone before below freezing temps arrive. Some models are bucking this a bit, and calling for rains to end as snow. But, we are not changing our forecast at this time. We will take another look at it Monday morning. Still, colder than normal air returns behind the system at midweek. A secondary little wave moves through Thursday and can bring another .25” of liquid equivalent precipitation. Right now we think it can be mostly rain, but will not rule out some snow. With any snow, accumulations would likely be minor.

Toward the end of next week into the weekend we see yet another strong front working in from west to east. This system will have plentiful moisture coming into a below normal air mass. Right now, given we see liquid equivalent precipitation will total .25”-.6”, we would anticipate some moderate accumulations, especially over the central and northern parts of the state. Now, this is way out at the end of the 10 day period, so there is plenty of time for track and intensity to change, but this could end up being a significant snow maker at mid-month.

In the extended window, we see another strong front moving toward the 19^th-20^th. However, models continue to wage war on each other, with the typical warm bias of one model being pitted against the cold, active pattern of the other. Right now, it appears that the colder pattern is holding, and we like the colder solution. But its impact on that front in the extended window has yet to be set anywhere close to in stone.

 

 

 

South America weather:

• Brazil is moving into a slightly drier period to finish the week and go into the weekend over all crop areas, but they’ll still see the scattered pop up action in places like Matto Grosso, southern Minas Gerais, and down south.
• Moisture will be limited from now into early next week, so from now through Monday, they’ll see combined totals of .5-1” over 50% of growing areas.
• Better moisture starts to develop on Tuesday afternoon in southeast Matto Grosso through southeast Brazil, with three day rain totals of .75-2” with 70% coverage; areas further to the north likely stay dry.
• It looks like another 1-2” will fall on Thursday-Friday in some of the same areas.
• A front will sweep north through the rest of Brazil growing areas next weekend, bringing .5-1.5” of rain, including Bahia and the rest of northeast Brazil
• The big question is will it be soon enough to take some of the stress of crops in those areas and I think it probably will.
• Between Friday and Sunday, they could pick up 2-3” in Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and the rest of the driest northeast Brazil area.
• Temps in Brazil are transitioning into the normal to above normal range, holding at least through the next 10-14 days.
• It may stay a little cooler in parts of Matto Grosso do Sul, but the warmest areas will include northern Minas Gerais, western Bahia, and northeast Goias through the rest of this week and the next.
• Cooler air will move back in by next weekend and temps will trend to normal to below, and it should help rains develop as cooler air comes in.

• Parts of Argentina have had too much rain recently, and some verified totals include 6-8” of rain in central Santa Fe and into Entre Rios just 48 hours ago.
• There is some lingering moisture in extreme northeast Argentina but we don’t see any new significant rains moving in soon.
• Dry high pressure will move back in over some of the areas that were hit hardest with rain, and it should hold through the weekend.
• There will still be some heavy rain in northeast Argentina through Saturday but it shouldn’t affect the rest of growing areas in the country.
• The next front to sweep through all areas develops on Sunday afternoon, working north and east from Monday-Tuesday, bringing .5-1.5” of rain, and some of the heaviest rains look to set up over the same areas hit by too much rain recently.
• Scattered showers will still sit over central Argentina Tuesday afternoon-Thursday, before it finally dries out from Thursday night-Sunday.
• Overall, the moisture doesn’t look to have good coverage in Argentina over the next 10 days, with the rains falling in the same areas that have gotten too much rain to this point.
• It’s not the best moisture pattern in Argentina, but there should be enough to keep crops growing in most areas; in the hardest hit areas, it’s either going to cause trouble with planting or even replanting if necessary.
• Temps in a good chunk of Argentina will be normal to slightly below normal, but things may begin to warm up next week on Monday-Wednesday before turning a bit cooler again later in the week.
• Temps won’t be too excessive in Argentina, which may actually be a problem in some of the flooded areas because it may be harder to get those fields to dry out.