South America weather:

• Showers are working through Brazil in the short term, from today through the weekend, with totals of 1-2.5”, stretching from Matto Grosso through Goias and through most of south/southeast Brazil, and coverage will be 80% of key crop areas.
• Next week, the action gets more hit and miss, with moisture in Matto Grosso on Monday-Tuesday.
• A drier trend is developing through the rest of next week, Tuesday afternoon-Friday, from Goias eastward through Bahia, Minas Gerais, into Sao Paulo and Parana.
• It doesn’t mean there won’t be any rains, with the possibility of .5-1” or less in those areas over the week, with coverage at about 60%.
• Lighter precipitation totals out west Tuesday-Friday, with Matto Grosso picking up .5-1.5” out there with 80% coverage.
• Closer to next weekend, they’ll see standard hit and miss action, so good rains that shouldn’t slow any kind of harvest progress or planting as well.
• Temps in Brazil are normal to slightly above, with the warmest air over the drier areas in the northeast.
• Argentina is in the midst of a fairly dry push as strong high pressure sits over Buenos Aires province and will keep the region dry from today-early next week.
• Monday-Tuesday should be dry next week before showers come together Tuesday night-Wednesday, bringing .5-.75” totals to 60% of Argentina, with the focus to the south in BA, southern Entre Rios, and Cordoba.
• As the front lifts further north it dissipates, so totals will be .25” or less in northern Argentina growing areas.
• Days 6-10 of the forecast period show a little moisture out west but it’s basically sprinkles, so I like a mostly dry period from late Thursday-Sunday out toward the end of the ten day period.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly below.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Strong gusty winds continue to howl over the area and temps are pushing a bit below normal for the rest of this week.
• As they go through the weekend into early next week, temps get back closer to normal.
• A strong surface high sits over the region from Saturday-Tuesday, with moisture trying to develop on the backside of the high on Tuesday night-Wednesday, possibly bringing light snows to central Ukraine.
• Very cold air continues to hold over central and southern Russia while above normal temps push into western Ukraine.
• As the high sits over the region for the next 10 days, there’s a likelihood of more below normal temps than above.
• The key is no precipitation for the most part, just a few sprinkles here and there is all they’ll see.

Corn Belt weather:

• Strong low pressure is moving through Canada, and that’s bringing strong winds to the Corn Belt today, circulating around the low and will continue for the next several days.
• It’s leading to lake-enhanced snow in MI, northern IN, and OH.
• Temps don’t get too far below normal but they will be closer to normal than they have been.
• Strong high pressure is in play over the next 7-8 days, with strong gusty winds in between each high as they move through the nation’s midsection.
• The only change is early next week, Monday-Wednesday, with a low pressure area that moves out of Canada and across the Great Lakes region into New York state; however it’ll just bring cloud cover to part of the region while everyone else sees sunshine.
• Things change a bit by the end of next week, a weather system wants to come together over the eastern Corn Belt, drawing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico around the backside of a surface high.
• Along the I-80 corridor Saturday morning, precipitation will likely total .25” of liquid south of I-80 and more snowfall to the north of I-80, with coverage in the Corn Belt at 30%.
• The extended forecast is a little more active, with two weather systems coming through, one on February 7-8 and the other on February 10-11, and both could total .5-.75” of moisture.
• Both look to be focused more to the north, including IA, WI, northern IL, and the Great Lakes region, with rain along the southern edge and snow further to the north.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above.

 

Deep South weather:

• A line of showers is trying to clear the eastern part of the region today, moving through GA, NC, and SC.
• Behind it, strong high pressure will dominate through the weekend and most of next week; nothing significant develops from this weekend all the way through next Friday.
• Light precipitation starts to come up the backside of high pressure dome on Friday afternoon, starting in east TX, coming up through LA, AR, and the boot heel of MO.
• Totals will be .25-.5” and coverage will be 70% of the western half of the Deep South; the eastern part of the region will continue to be dry.
• A couple of weather systems try to work through the region in the extended forecast; one comes through February 8-9 and gives the eastern half of the region .5-1” rainfall, and a second system wants to develop around February 14.
• Temps in the Deep South are normal to above.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is in control of the plains right now and will hold through this weekend and into the upcoming week.
• Other than gusty winds out of the northwest, there won’t be any major weather issues.
• Temps will be normal to above normal, turning a bit warmer by the end of next week as winds turn to the south.
• Moisture moves into TX on Friday with .25-.5” totals but initially won’t move much farther north.
• Later on Friday night, showers try to develop in eastern KS and eastern NE.
• Two systems will move across the plains in the extended forecast; the first one moves through February 5-7 with the better moisture totals down south in TX and OK, where they could see 1” or better rains, and further north, totals look like .25-.5”, falling as snow from I-80 northward.
• The second one moves through further north on February 8-9, bringing moisture to ND, SD, NE, and northern KS, falling as light snow with moisture totals of .25” or less.
• There’s a possibility of another system on February 10-11, with snow falling in SD and NE, and more likely rain fall the further south it goes.

 

Snow flies over the northern part of the state off and on today. The best snows developed in far northern Indiana late last night and continued though the morning. We have a cold front associated with that strong low that moved across MI yesterday sweeping through, and that is the main reason we can see snow off and on into early afternoon over the northern half of third of the state. However, lake enhancement will be what triggers the accumulating snow in most areas. The amount of liquid available otherwise is just not very much. In far northern areas we can see a coating to an inch. 2 inches may end up being seen in areas of ST. Joe county and Elkhart county. But, the better snows look to be in MI. Southern Indiana sees a lot of sun today, and the rest of the state will see sunny breaks, as the clouds are still pretty formidable through the day.

Better weather emerges tomorrow statewide. WE have a dry pattern settling in for the finish of the week, weekend and most of next week. WE think the European model is a little too pessimistic on clouds for the weekend. Honestly, even though it’s a bit colder, temps are still mostly normal to a bit above normal through the period, meaning sunny, dry normal weather is pretty good for late January into early February. WE have no complaints.

Models are looking to bring our next system in late next week. The European sped things up a bit on its latest run, trying to bring some rains in over southern Indiana late week on Friday. WE still think this is more of a 5^th into the 6^th type of event, but we will watch it. Rains can be up to half an inch. Cold air comes in behind the system.

In the extended period, we have the potential for a secondary wave around the 7^th that we are not overly impressed with, and then a stronger wave for the 9^th and 10^th. That one looks like it will bring a warm air surge to start, followed by another major cool down. The pattern looks more active as we move toward mid-month, but we are not seeing massively dominant signs of a big cold air push yet. So, for now, we look for the increase in activity in February to be leaning more rain than snow, much the same as we saw in January.

A low pressure circulation passes by to the north and west of the state today. A weak cold front sweeps through the state attached to that low. This may trigger a little bit of light rain over the region. Coverage is not spectacular, at roughly 40% of the state. Clouds will be a significant player in the state today. Overnight tonight into tomorrow, colder air dives in, and we could still see some wrap around moisture work into that cold air. This may set up for some light snow over the northern third of the state with a light coating to at most an inch. Lake enhancement will continue through the day tomorrow adding to snows in extreme north central Indiana and up into Michigan. Meanwhile the precipitation tomorrow will not push into the central and southern part of the state. In fact, we can see sun break through in southern Indiana. The map above shows snow accumulation through tomorrow midday. As we previously have mentioned, this model is too aggressive with its snow spread to the south…we like the best chance of snow to be from US 24 northward.

The rest of the 10 day period looks dry. Sunshine breaks through for Friday and holds through the weekend and next week over all of the state. Temps will be closer to normal than we have seen recently, but will not be below normal. In fact, a temp range from highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s will be seen over most of the state, with 40s likely in southern Indiana through the period. That is an average of a little above normal for January into February.

The extended window hints at a slightly more active pattern, with a moderate system for the 5^th into the 6^th, and a stronger system for the 8^th and 9^th. Temps look like they could go either way – producing rain or snow. So, at this point we look for a more active pattern for February, but we can’t completely guarantee that it turns into a cold snowy pattern.