Rain this morning will be moving out by midday. However, we still see a large swath of clouds over the state through the afternoon and into tomorrow. Rain totals through midday should still end up in that .25”-.75” range, with coverage at 80% of the state. Rains hold on the longest today over north central and northeast Indiana.

Temps remain above normal through the weekend and next week. With the clouds in here, we can’t rule out a few spits, sprinkles or even an odd shower or two through the weekend. Coverage tomorrow will be less than 30%. However, from later Sunday through Monday and early Tuesday, coverage will end up being closer to 60%. Moisture does not look overly large, but we can see a few hundredths to a few tenths, depending on where you are at.

From late Tuesday through Wednesday, we see a much better organized front sweeping through. This will bring rains from .25”-.4” over about 60% of the state in that period, with the most concentrated moisture in over the northern half of the state.

Behind that front, cooler air comes in, but nothing that is overly cold just yet. In fact, we keep temperatures closer to normal to finish next week, but really do not go below normal.

Overall, the simple way to look at the forecast this morning is that it is not as wet overall (in terms of total precipitation) as we were seeing a few days back, but it is wetter in its feel…with chances of light moisture and an overall damp outlook most of the upcoming week. We also feel that this cloudy, damp pattern also keeps a lid on temps. Some forecasts are calling for highs to really rip to the upside over the coming few days…We are not quite as bullish in our warmth. Yes, temps are well above normal, feeling more like November than January…but we are not breaking out the shorts just yet. YET! (Never say never.)

 

South America weather:

• A line of moderate to heavy thunderstorms is working from Matto Grosso down through Sao Paulo to start today, with this plume of moisture not really going away quickly over the next few days.
• A line of moisture will continue from Matto Grosso down through southeast Brazil through the weekend, with moisture totals from now-late Sunday at 1-2.5” and 80% coverage of most of Brazil crop areas; unfortunately, the area that’s missed out is the dry areas of the northeast part of the country.
• Nice hit and miss moisture develops next week, Monday-Wednesday, mostly just heat based in nature.
• From mid to late next week, a front brings a big cluster of action will through almost all Brazil crop areas, with heavy rains just west of Matto Grosso late next week, and even north/northeast Brazil areas are going to get some relief from dry weather.
• Combined totals will be another 1-3” through the second half of next week, which means precipitation totals will be near normal through the upcoming 10-day forecast window.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above, which should lead to good harvest windows as most of the popup action will only cover about 30% on any given day.
• Combines were rolling heavy in Matto Grosso yesterday and expect to see that through the weekend, with harvest possibly getting started in Goias and Minas Gerais, as well as Matto Grosso do Sul.
• Continued harvest windows will combine with rains that will aid continued crop growth and development.
• Argentina looks to be transitioning into a drier forecast pattern after seeing some heavy rains fall in certain areas of the country.
• High pressure is moving in to dominate all of the country as a whole, with only a few scattered showers in Buenos Aires province tomorrow night-early Saturday, totaling .25” or less and coverage of 30% at best.
• There may be a few showers just south of BA on Saturday night, but there won’t be anything that sweeps through all Argentina growing areas.
• Scattered showers will kick off next week in the extreme northern quarter of the region on Monday afternoon but won’t hit a lot of key crop areas.
• A round of thunderstorms moves through BA Monday night-Tuesday, but nothing else through the central part of the country at all.
• High pressure is back in by next Wednesday, holding through the following weekend, with the areas hit hardest by rains over the last ten days picking up next to nothing over the next 7-10 days.
• Temps will continue to be normal to slightly below in the short term, but the high pressure areas at the end of the 10-day period will bring temps to normal to slightly above.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Moderating temps continue with 32 degrees or higher over Ukraine and central/southern Russia.
• No major cold air incursions are expected, with not much precipitation expected either; a little light rain/snow tomorrow night-Saturday morning in central Russia, totaling .15” or less.
• Ukraine won’t see much precipitation through the weekend, but the region does see gusty winds from Sunday night-Monday; shouldn’t be a big deal but wheat typically doesn’t like really windy/dry conditions.
• Monday-Tuesday will see another shot of moisture totaling .03” but it’s still some moisture.
• Don’t see much cold air in play as south winds will keep the region warmer next week, so temps will be above normal and precipitation will be below normal.
• Next Wednesday-Thursday, we see a more active pattern starting to develop with a couple waves of mositure coming through.
• They’ll be worth .25-.5” with coverage at 60-70% of central/southern Ukraine, but the second system next week probably does open the door to some sub zero temps dropping down out of northern Russia, working into eastern Ukraine and central Russia.
• Precipitation in the southern region combined with cold air might mean some snow cover redeveloping.
• If it doesn’t redevelop, temps below zero next weekend could trigger some talk of winterkill in the region. I’m not sure it’ll be warranted just yet but it does get colder moving from January to February.

Corn Belt weather:

• A very active pattern continues in the Corn Belt as strong low pressure develops today in the mid and lower MS River valley and bring moisture up into the eastern Corn Belt late this afternoon-tomorrow.
• Totals will be .25-.75” mostly east of the MS River, including IL, IN, OH, and MI, with 80-90% coverage in those areas.
• A slight dry down starts tomorrow afternoon-Saturday before moisture tries to move back in on Sunday as part of a massive low in the Deep South, but latest model runs actually take the track a little farther south, meaning many areas in the Corn Belt may miss out.
• .25-.5” is still possible in IN, OH, and MI, but coverage may only be 40% as the low may track a little farther south and east.
• Strong north winds start to draw down cooler air over the western Corn Belt late in the weekend/early next week, but it doesn’t look like a massive cool down with well below normal temps.
• Monday-Wednesday, a low kicks out of the central plains into the western Corn Belt, bringing totals of .25-.5” but it is coming into some cooler air, so that means snow developing in western IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday from I-80 northward, and rain falling in west central IL and northern MO.
• A strong high will follow that, coming down out of Canada and over the great plains, bringing colder air into the Corn Belt late next week, taking temps closer to normal but not much below normal, holding through next Saturday-Sunday.
• By next Saturday, the surface map in the western part of the country shows nothing at all, so after an active forecast period, the pattern looks much less active by late next week, potentially opening the door for stronger and colder high pressure to be moving in.
• The extended forecast window finds the models with a high degree of difference, with the European model showing a cooler trend with temps normal to a bit below, and the GFS model shows a big upper level ridge developing over the western US that would bring warmer air in if it translates eastward into the Corn Belt by early February.
• I tend to prefer the colder solution as that’s where we have been and likely will stay there until proven otherwise.

 

Deep South weather:

• Heavy moisture is developing this morning in the lower MS River valley, including AR, LA, and western MS, where they’re picking up moderate to heavy rains with big thunderstorms firing up later today-this evening, bringing strong to severe weather.
• The precipitation will move eastward tonight-early Friday, leaving behind totals of .5-2” with 60% coverage.
• The moisture will re-fire on Saturday morning, bringing another big batch of rain and thunderstorms over LA and MS early Saturday morning before moving all the way east into NC, SC, and VA.
• A strong low comes out of this and develops a stronger secondary circulation Sunday-Monday; overall, there’s strong rain and thunderstorm activity from Saturday-Monday afternoon (strong gusty winds from Sunday-Monday) with rains totaling 1-3” out of the two waves of activity over 80% of the Deep South.
• 20-40 mph winds will be possible on Monday over TN, NC, SC, and GA.
• The system moves out by Monday night, with decent weather moving in behind it as Tuesday looks nice over the region and sunshine/blue sky will hang around for most of the rest of the week.
• Low pressure will pass by to the north of the region on Wednesday but otherwise, there shouldn’t be any major weather issues for the rest of the week.
• A weak front may try to slide through east/southeast parts of the region at midday on Thursday, leaving behind .25-.5” in GA, SC, and the FL panhandle.
• High pressure then parks right over the Deep South on Friday and holds through next weekend.
• Temps will continue to be normal to above normal.

 

Great Plains weather:

• It should be fairly calm through the end of the week, today-Saturday, with high pressure in control and not much in the way of precipitation.
• Moisture does come together in the Four Corners region tomorrow and that’s something to watch as it likely will kick out later in the weekend.
• Minor low pressure moves over KS later Saturday afternoon-night with just a few sprinkles in southeast NE and northeast KS.
• A strong low works toward the region from the west coast, coming together and kicking out into the great plains early next week.
• Monday-Tuesday, the low comes across KS into NE, putting down a few hundredths to .2” liquid equivalent, before a secondary low kicks out over NE and KS on Tuesday, potentially bringing 3-6” of snow to NE, with lesser amounts in northeast WY, southeast CO, and really nothing in KS, OK, and TX.
• Later next week, cold air does want to drop south out of Canada, with several strong surface highs exiting the Canadian prairies over the second half of next week, bringing temps back closer to normal and somewhat below.
• There won’t be a lot of precipitation with the colder temps, just some light snows in the northern plains late Thursday-Friday.
• The dry period likely stays into the week after next, with sunny and dry weather hanging around into early February.

Mostly dry weather again today, but clouds will be slowly building over the state. These clouds are coming up from the south and west as our next weather system is working in. Rains develop late this afternoon and evening, through the overnight and continue through midday tomorrow. Rain totals will be .25” to .75” with a few localized areas toward 1 inch. This will yield coverage at 90% of the state. This will be a good, soaking rain. The map shows a snapshot of the rain set up tonight at midnight.

Dry weather pushes back in tomorrow afternoon. This dry push holds through tomorrow night, Saturday and at least through the first half of Sunday. However, this will not be a “clean” dry surge. In fact, there may be a large batch of clouds in over the state, and those clouds may trigger some hit and miss spots and sprinkles, although it’s not a big enough threat for us to get too worked up over.

From Sunday night into Monday we are watching as another system tries to build in from southwest to northeast. However, the latest model runs on this system have it farther to the east, and it may be able to miss a large part of the state. We will see clouds hold over the state Sunday night through Tuesday, even if the system largely misses. Also, we are not going to totally give up on the system just yet…as we don’t make major forecast changes on just one model run. However, if we see s confirming run or two, that will back a drier start to next week, with only a few spits and sprinkles in the area.

Colder air comes in behind the system (again, even if the main precipitation bands miss us), which will take temps back closer to normal for the second half of next week. However, we do not see a major cold push yet, and we do it with mostly dry air in play, and even some sunshine. Another potentially strong system sweeps by more to the south and east late next week, but will have the effect of drawing cooler air down in again. So, while our precipitation pattern is leaning toward a bit less active and damp solution, the effect of cooling will be seen as we move toward the end of the month.  That will be key, as we continue to see another strong front early in the extended forecast window, moving across the country with cold air already in place ahead of it. That would suggest a potential for some snow right at the turn of the month or into very early February.

The rest of the extended pattern is up in the air. One set of models suggests a cold, snowy start to February and a pattern that would be very active with snow through the first half of the month. Another model suggests a large upper level ridge in over the western US, which would promote a move toward above normal temps in the east again after the 5^th-6^th of February. AT this point, we will leave our February thoughts alone, leaning toward a colder solution. But…there is plenty that can happen between now and then.