Brazil:

• A plume of moisture is working over Brazil that started this weekend, with a nice trail from south/southeast Brazil up through the rest of the country.
• We have seen reports of heavy rains over the last two days, including 13” of rainfall in one spot, but the coverage isn’t spectacular.
• Today, a band of rain runs west to east, across Matto Grosso into Goias, with rains then stretching north, and overall totals of 1-3” but there will be a large part of Brazil that only gets .25-.5” of rain.
• Rains could be heavy in spots, especially in Matto Grosso, from today-tomorrow, but the heaviest rains only cover 10-20% of the country, with general rain coverage at 60-70% today-early Wednesday.
• Most of Brazil crop areas will be dry by midday Wednesday which holds through Friday, and any rainfall is confined to the western half of Matto Grosso, where they could see .25-1.5” from Wednesday-Friday.
• There won’t be any weather systems working in after that, keeping the mostly dry pattern in place through the weekend, although there may be pop up heat based action in Matto Grosso, Goias, into Matto Grosso do Sul, with moisture of .25-.5” and hit and miss coverage at 50%.
• Monday-Wednesday will see just some pop up action, with the next front holding off until later in the week.
• After the recent run of heavy rains, things are turning drier.
• Even the area hit by 13” of rain had already finished harvest, so it may have delayed planting or forced re-planting in that area, which there is still plenty of time to do.
• I don’t think it’ll be too much of an impact, but we’ll see what the market thinks.
• Temps will be normal to a little above.

Argentina:

• A strong low pressure area is rotating just off the coast of Uruguay and southern Brazil, giving a few scattered showers to Buenos Aires and that’s about it for today.
• Dry weather will be the rule by tomorrow over all key crop areas and holds through Thursday, with the exception being light rains to the north, including Chaco and northern Santa Fe, on Thursday afternoon, worth .25-.5” there.
• A few scattered showers come together in BA, Entre Rios, Santa Fe, and Cordoba on Friday, that could be worth .25-1.5” rains, especially if they see some thunderstorms, with coverage at 50-60% of key crop areas.
• Two day totals from Friday-Saturday likely bump to .5-2” as showers linger into the early weekend.
• The moisture is gone by Sunday and next week starts mostly dry, with scattered showers in north/northwest growing areas Monday afternoon-Tuesday but it won’t go farther south.
• Mainly scattered showers/thunderstorms from Tuesday-Friday popping up with 30-40% coverage each day, and each day will see at least some moisture somewhere in the country.
• Temps in Argentina will be mostly normal.

Ukraine/Russia/FSU weather:

• It’s a dry start to the week, with very gusty winds in central Russia that could lead to some light precipitation totaling .1-.25” only tonight-tomorrow, with 60% coverage of Russia’s central region and even extreme eastern Ukraine.
• Gusty winds may bring down cold air but it won’t be the extreme cold, just back closer to normal.
• Dry weather holds from Wednesday-Friday, with a few light showers over the weekend that may total a few hundredths/.1” at best.
• Colder air starts to come down early next week and does so without precipitation so there will be some uncovered crops that will run into some arctic air.
• There will be some snow that moves through Tuesday-Wednesday along with 20-40 MPH winds, so there may be some wind damage there.
• The cold air moves away and temps warm up big on Wednesday-Thursday, leading to .25-.5” rainfall over Ukraine and central Russia.
• There is some moisture coming next week but it’s coming with some harsh conditions, very windy and some bitterly cold air, so there may be some winterkill over there on wheat.

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