Regional Weather Outlook 2-13-17

Corn Belt weather:

– Strong high pressure continues to move into the Corn Belt and take control, keeping the Corn Belt basically dry all week.
– A weak upper level disturbance over Canada may drag a little moisture through northern MN, northern WI, and into MI on Wednesday.
– Another strong high pressure dome will finish out the week on Thursday-Friday as temps will be mostly above normal this week, with the biggest surge at the end of the week.
– The weekend stays dry with above normal temps before the next system moves in from the Great Plains overnight Sunday night-Monday, bringing moisture from northern MN, through IA, MO, and into the Deep South, tracking eastward on Monday afternoon.
– It’s moving across the eastern Corn Belt by Monday night/Tuesday, with overall coverage at 90% from Monday-early Wednesday, with rain totals of .25-1.25” of moisture.
– There may even be thunderstorm development in MO and southern IL, which would bump totals higher.
– A dry pattern will follow that system from Wednesday-Friday, with the potential for light snow out of Canada and into northern MN Wednesday night-Thursday, but it doesn’t get further south.
– Temps for mid-Feb will be normal to above but there won’t be a runaway to the upside like we saw last week over a good chunk of the Corn Belt.
– The extended forecast shows another strong low pressure circulation moving over the Corn Belt Feb 25-26 that could have .5-1” potential, likely all liquid but will keep an eye out for snow even though the cold air versus warm air battle is consistently being won by the warm air and I don’t expect that to change.

Deep South weather:

– High pressure is in control to start the week and staying there through at least Tuesday night.
– By Tuesday night-Wednesday, a cluster of thunderstorms moves across MO and AR, bringing moderate to heavy rains there, and then moving across the rest of the region for the balance of Wednesday, including AL, MS, GA, NC, and SC.
– It’s a fast-moving event, with rain totals in the Deep South at .5-1” of moisture and coverage is 90%, although areas that miss out may include KY and western TN.
– High pressure is back in control by Thursday and keeps things dry through the weekend.
– Thunderstorms sit just off the Gulf from Friday night-Saturday and won’t hit anyone except the FL peninsula on Saturday with some potential strong thunderstorm action.
– The next system moves in Monday morning with heavy thunderstorms in AR and LA, with the potential for some flooding if things work out they way they appear to as rain totals look like 1-2.5” in LA.
– This is part of a strong front that’ll move across the region on Tuesday-Wednesday with almost 100% coverage in the region Monday-Tuesday night.
– Totals will range from .5-2.5” with the heaviest amounts in the western half of the region as it loses some punch the farther east it travels, so GA, FL, NC, and SC may see .25-.75” amounts.
– After the system moves away, things dry out with high pressure sitting right over New Orleans by noon on Wednesday, bringing a beautiful finish to the week.
– Watching another low come together in the Four Corners region by next Thursday and that could bring precipitation to the Deep South by next weekend, Feb 25-26, depending on the track.

Great Plains weather:

– It’s a north/south setup in the plains to start the week, with nothing from I-70 northward all week long and temps going normal to well above normal, especially in the Dakotas.
– South of the KS/OK line will see some good moisture over the next couple of days across TX and OK.
– Rainfall today-Wednesday in TX and OK could be .5-1.5” but you may need to add .5-.75” more in the eastern half of each state, with coverage at 75% of those areas.
– The extreme southern areas of KS could see incursions of light showers tonight, likely totaling .25” or less.
– Once the system moves out, the plains will be dry for the rest of this week/the weekend.
– Things get more active Sunday night-Monday as a low comes out of the central Rockies and while it doesn’t have a lot of organization at first, it’ll come together by Monday morning.
– It starts with thunderstorms in TX and OK on Sunday afternoon, with overall totals in the plains at .25-1” with 50-60% coverage across the entire plains stretching from Canada down to Mexico.
– The action rotates over the northern plains by midday on Monday and could turn into a fairly significant rainmaker in ND from Monday-Tuesday, adding another .25-.5” up there, and there likely won’t be any snow mixing in.
– The rest of the plains is dry Tuesday-Wednesday, with lingering rain up in ND on Tuesday but it’s done on Wednesday, with just cloud cover hanging around the rest of the week.

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