We start off the week with some lingering moisture in central and southern Indiana this morning. This moisture has activated along a frontal boundary that slipped into the state late yesterday. Precipitation yesterday was rather unimpressive, except down along the Ohio River. Today, we can see anywhere from .25” to 1” in central and southern Indiana, with coverage at 80% in those zones. Getting into the upper end of the range near 1” will depend almost entirely on getting some thunderstorm action. The northern third of the state will be mostly dry, with some clouds around, but no significant precipitation threat.
We are dry for Tuesday, Wednesday and a large part of Thursday. High pressure actually sneaks into the state briefly Wednesday, and we should see temps slowly climb as south winds come in on the backside of that high. That being said, we likely do NOT see any excessive heat this week.
Rains develop across the state from late Thursday through Friday. Rains are not nearly as impressive as we were seeing late last week. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to up to a third of an inch with coverage at no more than 60% of the state. The best rains likely develop Friday midday and afternoon up in extreme northern Indiana, near the Michigan line.
Dry weather is back for this coming Saturday, before another significant storm complex moves across the state Sunday midday and afternoon. Similar to what we are seeing today, that moisture to finish this weekend comes across central and southern Indiana, with rains of 1-2.5” possible with 70% coverage south of SR 28. There can be several strong thunderstorms in this event as it moves through, but for now, the low looks to keep this southern track. The northern third of the state stays dry. By the end of this coming weekend, we may start to hear some complaints about lack of rainfall over the northern third of the state. The map above shows potential cumulative rain totals from this morning through midnight next Sunday night.
Dry statewide Monday, but on Tuesday, the 15th a quick moving trough rips through the northern third of the state. This triggers rains from .05”-.25” over 70% of the state from US 30 northward. The rest of the state stays dry. Then we are dry to finish the 10 day period next Wednesday.
The extended 11-16 day window has strong upper level high pressure parking over the eastern third of the country. In that time, we have two very strong fronts moving across the western and central Corn Belt, but falling apart as they move into Indiana, becoming undone by the strong high entrenched over the east. We will not rule out some scattered light moisture in there, but at this time, we do not expect any good rains from the 17th through the 22nd. Now, at the end of the 11-16 day period, there is a very, very strong low and strong cold front setting up to stretch from the upper Midwest back through SW KS. This is the type of front that could easily lead to pattern change, bringing more rains in after the 22nd-23rd. However, that is too far out to really guarantee anything substantial. All we are doing is watching that set up for the time being.
Temps will be slowly building this week, but likely stay mostly normal to below. Same story for next week too, which means there is no threat of excessive heat in our forecast this morning through at least August 20.