Indiana Weather Outlook 2-20-18

Rains continue today. In fact, the only change we are making to our forecast this morning is to bring more rain into southern Indiana on Thursday.  Today’s rains should be a little lighter than yesterday, but we still see them lingering through most of the day over northern Indiana. As we mentioned in yesterday’s forecasts, we do see these rains extending a little bit to the south over far western Indiana today, and still think rain down to Vincennes in the west is likely. However, we do not see any southern push farther east, and that means south central and southeast Indiana will stay dry. South flow will be strong today, and temps will be well above normal. 60s and 70s will be seen statewide. Rain totals will be .2” to .5” from I-70 northward and in far western Indiana, those totals can extend south to Vincennes.

A strong cold front works through the state tomorrow. Thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight through tomorrow morning over the northern half of the state, and we see thunderstorms attempting to re-fire over southern Indiana tomorrow night. However, this front does more through quickly, allowing most of the state to see a lull in action by late afternoon and tomorrow evening. Much, much colder air comes in for tomorrow, with a good 20-25 degree drop from today’s highs. Rain totals will run from half to 2” and rain coverage will be up to 100% of the state.

Another wave of moisture comes up the slowing front from the southwest for Thursday morning. This brings another chance at half to 1.5” rains into southern Indiana for Thursday. The clouds around this wave get all the way into northern Indiana, and moisture can lift north of I-70, but we think the northern quarter of the state probably is able to miss out on this moisture surge and stay dry for Thursday, while the south gets potentially hammered again.

From there, pretty much everything stays the same. Friday we have another wave coming up from the southwest. This will bring rains of .5”-2” to areas south of I-70, and a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch north of I-70. Far northern parts of Indiana may miss out on that system.

Saturday, scattered showers are back with .25”-.5” from US 24 southward, and a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch up north. Coverage will be 80%.

gfs_tprecip_indy_26.png

Sunday we are pushing the rains out sooner. We still look for potential rain totals of .5”-1.5” over the southern half of the state and scattered showers up north with potential of a quarter of an inch or so. But…everything looks to be done and out of here by midday Sunday, allowing for some drying to start later Sunday afternoon. The map above shows rain totals from this morning through Sunday.

 

We finally get a dry day in all areas of the state next Monday. In fact, we should be dry for at least 3 straight days Monday through Wednesday, as high pressure works across the eastern Corn Belt.

 

A strong system returns for the start of March on Thursday the 1st, pushing into the 2nd. This system brings rains again, with half to 1.5” potential on the conservative side. Late in the 11-16 day window we have a cold front that crosses the state around the 6th with potential for half to 1.5” rains.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s