Indiana Weather Outlook 3-19-18

Most of the state misses out on moisture this week, but temperatures continue to look more like the last gasps of winter rather than full on spring. Wild swings in temps this week should finally give way to more stable, spring-like action next week.

Today, strong east winds will be seen over the state in advance of our next storm complex. This storm system will pass by mostly to the south of the state tonight through tomorrow. There will be some precipitation moving into far southern Indiana, mostly south of US 50, and we can see clouds with a small threat of precipitation all the way up to I-70. The precipitation totals south of US 50 will be up to half an inch, while closer to I-70 will be no more than a few hundredths. Coverage in the south tomorrow will be 80%. North of I-70, we see nothing but some clouds through tomorrow, and even those will have some breaks.

Colder air comes in on the backside of this system once again. Strong north winds will be seen at midweek on Wednesday. These winds will trigger some wrap around snows in Ohio, but we do not think that any of this action is able to move into Indiana, so we are keeping the period dry at this time. Clouds will be here, and temps will be below normal. That cool push continues through Thursday, and temps moderate some by Friday as south winds arrive ahead of the next front.

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_indy_24That system moves in for Saturday. Rain totals will easily be .25”-1” over the entire state. The upper end of the range will be in central Indiana, where we see an increased threat of thunderstorm action later Saturday afternoon and evening. All rains will be done by Sunday morning and we are in fact looking at full rain here, with temps staying closer to normal and perhaps even a bit above normal during the event. The map above is a snapshot of potential precipitation for Saturday afternoon.

Dry for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of next week. A strong front will be coming together to the west for Monday into Tuesday, but it slows and stalls over IL Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There is moisture potential in that front of .25”-1” and it could hit all of the state…but the movement of the system is interesting. IF it stalls for more than 24 hours…that would put way too much rain over areas to our west, but could also rain the storm out before it finally gets here. We think that this storm will likely pick up the pace and move right on in for Wednesday, and we like those .25”-1” rains here at midweek next week, with a dry finish for Thursday and Friday.

The rest of the extended window has a system for Easter weekend on the 31st and 1st, bringing .25”-75” rain potential to about 70% of the state. However, temps look to stay normal to slightly above normal for the entire extended period.

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