Status quo this morning as the next several days will all look very similar. Our drier pattern continues today, and temps will be above normal once again. Full sunshine is in our forecast today through early next week.  Temperatures may push 90 over parts of the state, upper 80s in the rest!

Our next front is still headed toward the area for midweek next week. The front still has its best moisture out west, where .75” can fall in IA, MN, WI and northern MO, mostly on Tuesday. But, by the time that front gets here on Wednesday, it looks pretty much dead and rained out. We will see that front pass, and there will be some clouds and a wind shift, but precipitation will be limited to a few hundredth to a tenth. That’s all. The front will also move through quickly, being off to the east by late Wednesday afternoon. The western corn belt, here, we think a few hundredths to at most a quarter of an inch with 50% coverage next Wednesday might be the best we can do. This looks like a rather dry pattern emerging.

After that front passes, we are back to our dry outlook for the last part of the week, Thursday into at least the weekend. However, the big change will be temperatures, which are likely to retreat quickly to near normal levels and may even slide slightly below normal toward the weekend. In the extended period, the front in early October is in fact gone, and we may not see another significant rain chance until we get closer to week 3. We will address the further long term outlook in our first Harvest Forecast of the season, due out this weekend here at Hoosier Ag Today!

We move into a drier pattern today as warmer air surges northward. We will see some on and off clouds over the state today, but precipitation is not going to be a significant part of the forecast at all over the next week. Temps to finish this week will be well above normal, staying that way into the weekend and early next week. The map shows temps in relation to normal for this Friday (high temps). Notice we are very warm for this time of year…anywhere from 8 to 20 degrees above normal over the eastern corn belt!

Our next front is still headed toward the area for midweek next week. The front still looks to have promising rains out west that can be .75” in IA, MN, WI and northern MO Monday and Tuesday. But, by the time that front gets here on Wednesday, it looks pretty much dead and rained out. We will see that front pass, and there will be some clouds and a wind shift, but precipitation will be limited to a few hundredth to a tenth. That’s all. The front will also move through quickly, being off to the east by late Wednesday afternoon. The western corn belt, here, we think a few hundredths to at most a quarter of an inch with 50% coverage next Wednesday might be the best we can do. This looks like a rather dry pattern emerging.

If we get very little rain next Wednesday, then there is no reason to deviate from our outlook of yesterday, looking for the dry pattern to hold through the end of the month and into early October. In the extended period, our next front is expected to arrive sometime closer to the 4^th. Like its predecessor, that front also looks better out west, and will be moving into an area dominated by an upper level high and ridge. AT this time we are leaving our forecast of .1”-.5” of rain alone, but think it will take a weakening of the high pressure dome over Ontario to truly do that.

The forecast this morning has no major changes to our overall thought process. Many areas got that last “finishing” rain they needed yesterday, and now the good drying forecast should manifest, and we may be seeing guys back in the fields rather quickly for the second half of this week.

Scattered showers move across the state today as a second wave of moisture moves through right on through this afternoon and evening. We could see some better moisture today in spots, but will still be looking at about 60-70% coverage across the state. We are putting rain totals in at .1” to 1”. The best rains this morning will be over northern and western areas, and action will slowly drift east and south as the day progresses.  The map above shows a cumulative rains by early tomorrow morning.

Drier weather is on the way starting tomorrow, although clouds will probably linger over a large part of the state. Temps do not really fall off that much behind the front, and we expect some good warming later on…as we will get to in a bit. Dry, warm air is in for the balance of the week, the weekend and a good chunk of next week. Our next front is dying as it moves close at midweek next week. While rains out west look promising and can be up to .75” in the western corn belt, here, we think a few hundredths to at most a quarter of an inch with 50% coverage next Wednesday might be the best we can do. This looks like a rather dry pattern emerging.

If we get very little rain next Wednesday, we then look set to be dry through the end of the month and into early October. Our next front in the extended period looks to arrive sometime closer to the 4^th. However that front also looks better out west, and will be moving into an area dominated by an upper level high and ridge. That will take a lot of punch out of the front. We still are talking up some .1”-.5” rains there in early October, but will need some help from that high weakening sooner and pushing east faster.

A quick note on the Tropics. Jose likely still tries to interact with the New England and Mid Atlantic coasts over the next 2-3 days. Maria is on track to hammer the Caribbean. The track from there is still up in the air. But there is more concern this morning about a westward push than there was 48 hours ago. Remember Irma made her way all the way into the eastern Corn Belt before raining herself out. We need to watch where Maria wants to go to gauge if there will be any rain enhancement later in the extended period. Right now, we still think she curves and heads out to sea…but we all know these storm tracks are highly changeable this far out from the US mainland.

Dry today, tomorrow and most of Sunday. Our next front arrives Sunday night and moves over the state through Monday. Rain totals look to be from a few hundredths to half an inch with coverage at 60% of the state. The best chance to get into the upper part of the rain range now is moisture lingering longer through the day Monday. But, that does not happen over large parts of the state. Everything is gone by overnight Monday night. The map above shows cumulative rain potential through early Tuesday morning.

Dry weather returns behind the front, and we do see temps climbing significantly now for the second half of next week. We look for above normal temps through that period with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. The question then becomes “is this enough to pull the entire month to normal or even above normal levels?” While it may get us close, we likely do still fall short.

Our next system does not have a chance at moving into the region until closer to the 25^th.  Rain totals look to be from .25”- 1” of rain with coverage at 80%. This is a front that slows as it arrives and then sags more to the south and east. The potential for rain is there, but we have concern that the front may end up raining itself out before bringing actual good rains to most of Indiana.

Through the rest of the extended period we do not have much action to talk about. There can be another front around the 29^th, but it does not look very strong. Overall, this is a drying forecast, with only 2 good rain chances between now and the end of the month, and even those look to have coverage that could be better, if we are being honest.