Today should be the last mostly dry day in our string that dates back to the first few days of august in some cases. We have a fairly powerful storm complex moving in overnight tonight and it will give us rain through the day tomorrow. Today, full sunshine will start the day, but we expect clouds to begin to develop this afternoon, and by late afternoon it’s not out of the question to see some scattered showers in over western and southwestern parts of the state. Still, the biggest rains are set for overnight and definitely tomorrow. Temperatures should be warm statewide today.

We see a strong thunderstorms trying to develop along one of the frontal boundaries over the state tomorrow. This will trigger some heavy rains, mostly over the northern half to northern third of the state. The European model seems to have really taken a dive off the deep end with this scenario, bringing some 3”+ rains in along or north of US 24. Now, we think the rain totals that high are likely overdone, but we cannot stress enough that we will be looking at some scattered strong and severe weather off and on tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Overall, we look for rain totals from tonight through tomorrow to be .25”-1” with 80% coverage, and the wont rule out some totals that push closer to 1.5”. However, we must say, like we have over the past few days, that any moves into the upper part of the precipitation range will take a push from strong thunderstorms. All of the precipitation is done by tomorrow night around midnight. The map above shows likely precipitation totals through 6 AM Friday morning.

Dry weather is in for Friday, although it will be cooler and a bit of a transition day. That means clouds can be with us off and on through the Friday time frame, and we can’t even completely rule out a spit or sprinkle, but the day should be pretty much dry with no new significant precipitation threats. We then continue the dry pattern through the weekend and through Monday. Some models are trying to bring scattered light moisture in to the northern third of the state Saturday, but there is significant model disagreement, and even the models that show it have decreased the intensity greatly over the past 24 hours. So, we do not see a need to change our forecast…but instead will talk drier weather while watching for any re-strengthening of this minor disturbance.

Our next front looks to come in a little sooner, with rains spreading across the state now next Tuesday. There is some model disagreement here too, with the European favoring a faster arrival, and other models still slowing. The takeaway is that there is a system here, somewhere in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, and it will bring moisture. However, the associated moisture is not as impressive, and we are dialing back rain totals out of the event. For now, we will look for .25”-1”” rains, about half of what we had been forecasting, as the strength of the front moving east is just not there. It may go through some resurgence and we will address that if and when it happe3ns, but for now, we are not promising as much moisture next week.

The rest of the 10-day period and the extended 11-16 day forecast window will be dominated by a strong upper level high parking over Ontario from the end of next week through the end of the month. This will bring sunny, dry weather in to finish out August, with temps slowly climbing, but staying within a few degrees of normal.

 

Mostly dry today and tomorrow. A weak trough sags across the northern part of the state today and that may trigger some clouds, but we do not think that precipitation is a big concern, outside of an occasional spit or sprinkle. The available moisture is just not that high to trigger anything of consequence. Our next good front is delayed just a bit this morning, and will not show up until early Thursday morning, meaning we squeak out yet another dry day tomorrow.

 

The front for Thursday still looks pretty impressive. We see rains breaking out early in the morning and then working across the state through the day. There will be some good thunderstorm potential in the afternoon. Rain totals will be from .25”-1.2” over 80% of the state, basically unchanged from yesterday’s forecast. For areas to see the upper end of the range, though, we remain convinced that it will take some good thunderstorms to push above half an inch of general rain totals. 

 

Dry weather is back for Friday, and the pattern remains through the first half of next week.

 

Our next system starts to nose in next Tuesday afternoon very late, and we see good rains through Wednesday and Thursday, the 23^rd and 24^th. Those rains can bring rain totals of half to 2 inches at least over 90% of the state. This will be a very good rain event.

 

The extended 11-16 day period will return to sunshine with an upper level high pressure dome still sitting over the southern part of Ontario, although we are keeping a keen eye out for a minor front around the 28^th that may trigger a scattered shower or two.

 

This remains a good set up for rain for soybeans through the end of the month.

 

Dry today, tomorrow and Thursday. High pressure is sitting over eastern Indiana this morning, just south of Fort Wayne. This high moves off to the east and will start to bring some south winds in, but we may not see that fully until a second high moves out later tomorrow.

A few scattered showers sneak toward southeast Indiana overnight Thursday night, but really we do not see rains truly develop over the state until Friday morning. A weak front pushes into the NW part of the state near sunrise Friday morning, and will sweep through quickly through early afternoon. The available moisture is not impressive with this event. We look for a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch over the northern half of the state Friday with no better than 60% coverage. The rest of the state sees little to nothing, and mostly clouds. Saturday should be mostly dry.

The biggest event of the coming 10 day period is a strong low that moves out of the western Corn Belt and into the state on Sunday. 24 hours ago, this system looked to move by mostly to the south. Projections now have it a little farther north, bringing the best rains into central Indiana, with still some good rains in the southern third. AT this point, the northern third of the state remains left out. WE like rain totals of .25
“-1.25”, which is down from our rain totals yesterday. We still have a concern about some strong thunderstorms and some severe weather, including heavy downpours, but we think overall, we need to pull in the reigns on this event just a bit. We will see coverage at 70% south of US 24, and basically nothing north of there. There is plenty of time for this track to alter, like we saw from yesterday to today, but we will be honing in on the path of this system over the next couple of days.

Mostly dry statewide Monday through next Thursday. However, we still see a bit of disturbed weather potential for late Monday night into early Tuesday, the 15^th. If realized, this will likely manifest in a few thunderstorm clusters moving about the state. Coverage will likely be 20% or less, with rain totals under half an inch, but we likely cannot call for a completely dry period at this time.

The extended still looks pretty benign, with a strong upper level high pressure parking over the eastern third of the country. We can’t rule out a few scattered showers trying to pop up, but in general, we still see no significant front able to displace this high. That means there will be plenty of dry spots to contend with, and any precipitation coverage will be spotty. In short…don’t count on much. Temps through the upcoming 2 week period will be normal to slightly below normal, with the best chance of a big warming surge coming this Saturday, in strong flow ahead of the biggest system in our forecast this time around.

 

We start off the week with some lingering moisture in central and southern Indiana this morning. This moisture has activated along a frontal boundary that slipped into the state late yesterday. Precipitation yesterday was rather unimpressive, except down along the Ohio River. Today, we can see anywhere from .25” to 1” in central and southern Indiana, with coverage at 80% in those zones. Getting into the upper end of the range near 1” will depend almost entirely on getting some thunderstorm action. The northern third of the state will be mostly dry, with some clouds around, but no significant precipitation threat.

We are dry for Tuesday, Wednesday and a large part of Thursday. High pressure actually sneaks into the state briefly Wednesday, and we should see temps slowly climb as south winds come in on the backside of that high. That being said, we likely do NOT see any excessive heat this week.

Rains develop across the state from late Thursday through Friday. Rains are not nearly as impressive as we were seeing late last week. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to up to a third of an inch with coverage at no more than 60% of the state. The best rains likely develop Friday midday and afternoon up in extreme northern Indiana, near the Michigan line.

Dry weather is back for this coming Saturday, before another significant storm complex moves across the state Sunday midday and afternoon. Similar to what we are seeing today, that moisture to finish this weekend comes across central and southern Indiana, with rains of 1-2.5” possible with 70% coverage south of SR 28. There can be several strong thunderstorms in this event as it moves through, but for now, the low looks to keep this southern track. The northern third of the state stays dry. By the end of this coming weekend, we may start to hear some complaints about lack of rainfall over the northern third of the state. The map above shows potential cumulative rain totals from this morning through midnight next Sunday night.

Dry statewide Monday, but on Tuesday, the 15^th a quick moving trough rips through the northern third of the state. This triggers rains from .05”-.25” over 70% of the state from US 30 northward. The rest of the state stays dry. Then we are dry to finish the 10 day period next Wednesday.

The extended 11-16 day window has strong upper level high pressure parking over the eastern third of the country. In that time, we have two very strong fronts moving across the western and central Corn Belt, but falling apart as they move into Indiana, becoming undone by the strong high entrenched over the east. We will not rule out some scattered light moisture in there, but at this time, we do not expect any good rains from the 17^th through the 22^nd. Now, at the end of the 11-16 day period, there is a very, very strong low and strong cold front setting up to stretch from the upper Midwest back through SW KS. This is the type of front that could easily lead to pattern change, bringing more rains in after the 22^nd-23^rd. However, that is too far out to really guarantee anything substantial. All we are doing is watching that set up for the time being.

Temps will be slowly building this week, but likely stay mostly normal to below. Same story for next week too, which means there is no threat of excessive heat in our forecast this morning through at least August 20.