Scattered showers move in to the state today, and then we see another wave overnight tonight into tomorrow. The best threat of thunderstorms will be with wave number 2 tonight, and mostly in NW Indiana. All told, we would put precipitation through midday tomorrow at .25”- 1”, with the upper end of the range mostly limited to areas with thunderstorms .Rain coverage will be around 70%

 

Dry for tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning with weak, quick moving high pressure passing through.

 

Rains are back for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night and early Monday. Rain totals will be from .25” to 1 inch over about 80% of the state. The rains might be slightly more impressive still in central and southern Indiana, but the differentiation is not as strong as 24 hours ago.

 

Mostly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and temps may climb a bit with strong south flow on Wednesday ahead of our next system.

 

That storm complex still is set to arrive Thursday, bringing plenty of rain and hitting all areas. Right now, we are going to keep rains at half to 1.5” over 80-90% of the state. However models are starting to suggest that the system may try and stay farther south. Some models are putting rains in over only the southern third of the state. So, we may have to tweak this forecast going forward, if consensus builds for a more southern track. Still, have a concern about at least 1 line of strong to severe thunderstorm with the system as it moves through, mostly Thursday night into early Friday. Any strong to severe storm could bump those rain totals considerably on a localized scale.

 

The forecast is unchanged behind that front, as we look to cool of and dry down just a bit wit high pressure coming in for next Friday the 11^th, lingering into the 12^th. We continue to keep an eye on the 13^th and early 14^th for scattered hit and miss showers, and then a much stronger front for the 17^th. That second front may have some .25”-.5” rain potential.

Our weather pattern gets a little more active today and stays that way through the end of the week. Yesterday we had a fairly large cluster of rain and thunderstorm action fire off in Illinois, while most of Indiana only saw clouds, a decent amount of thunder and some hit and miss precipitation. Today that action gets more consistent and wider ranging geographically, and then we see a second wave coming tomorrow late afternoon through the overnight and into Friday. All told, precipitation the next several days will yield at least .25”- 1”, and we have concern that any stronger thunderstorm (especially tomorrow night) may push a few totals over an inch. Still, we look for coverage out of this event to be at 70%. There also will be plenty of dry stretches in-between rains too, so do not look for the entire upcoming 2 and a half day period to be wet. The map above shows precipitation totals through Friday morning.

 

We should dry down later Friday afternoon, and then see a mostly dry weekend as high pressure settles in for Saturday, leaving on Sunday.

 

Our next little wave of action is still on track for Monday arrival, and we may see clouds build ahead of this already Sunday afternoon. Rains Monday seem to want to shift a bit farther south, bringing rains up to 1 inch in central and southern Indiana, but perhaps only a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch over the northern third of the state. Some models are trying to start scattered weak shower action Sunday night, but we are not going to make that change to our forecast yet.

 

Mostly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and temps may climb a bit with strong south flow on Wednesday ahead of our next system.

 

That storm complex arrives Thursday, and it is the strong system that will be coming out of the central plains. There is plenty of rain with this system, and it will hit all areas. Right now, we are going to put rains at half to 1.5” over 80-90% of the state. Those rain totals are down slightly from our first read of the system going back to the start of the week, but we are still impressed with the scope of the event and have concern about at least 1 line of strong to severe thunderstorm wit the system as it moves through, likely later Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. Any strong to severe storm could bump those rain totals considerably on a localized scale.

 

Behind that front, we look to cool of and dry down just a bit wit high pressure coming in for next Friday the 11^th, lingering into the 12^th. Models are in disagreement about the extended period, but we think that it would be problematic to completely remove precipitation in the period, mostly because the air mass change (cooler Canadian air) will likely breed some hit and miss showers. That being said, a strong Canadian high pressure dome does look poised to try and move over the great lakes for a large part of the 11-16 day period. We are keeping an eye on the 13^th and early 14^th for scattered hit and miss showers, and then a much stronger front for the 17^th. That second front may have some .25”-.5” rain potential.

 

Temps through the upcoming period look or be pretty decent. We expect no major heat, and in general, we will stay very close to normal through mid month. We have one concern for temps spiking, and that will be ahead of next week’s strong system…so perhaps Wednesday we see well above normal temps. The rest of the period looks good.

 

Dry across the state today, but staring tomorrow we see a significant increase in moisture potential statewide. Strong south flow keeps temps up today, and dew points remain uncomfortably warm as well. Tomorrow scattered showers break out with limited coverage, and then they expand for Thursday and Friday, bringing 3 day rain totals to .25”-.75” wit coverage at 70%. We have a concern for higher totals on the upper end of the range, but feel that most of that would have to be thunderstorm based to get to an inch of rain. And thunderstorms are not our main expectation.

 

Dry for the weekend with high pressure taking control.

 

Our next disturbance is stronger and much more impressive for early next week. Strong rain and thunderstorm action is in over the state for next Monday. Rain totals will be from .25”-1.1” with coverage at 90% of the state. This will be a very significant threat for rain, and is a dramatic change over 24 hours ago. While this is a quicker developing system for the week, and it has seeds back in the central plains, it also does not include changes to the potential of a strong storm complex coming out of the central plains later next week. That system is slowing and developing into a powerful wave for later Friday.

 

Another massive system develops in the central plains for the second half of the week next week. This is on the move late, and can bring rains of 1-2” over a majority of the state for next Friday into Saturday. This is delayed a couple of days from yesterdays outlook, mostly due to the early week system being stronger and creating more headlines.

 

We are leaving the extended forecast period alone this morning, trending wetter. The system for late in the 10 day window triggers lingering moisture for the 11^th-14^th. We have no reason to change our forecast this morning, so that means we are leaving potential rain totals at an additional half to 1.5” for that period. We may have to tweak those a bit moving forward.

Some significant changes to the forecast this morning, as our longer term dry pattern pretty much went away over the weekend. We still are looking at mostly dry weather in here today, tomorrow and Wednesday but there will be some big-time adjustments to our forecast this morning. Models have come out with significant agreement over the next 10 days, which is odd enough as it is…and to put a major switch to the pattern on top of that – it’s a big deal

Again, for today, tomorrow and Wednesday, the Hoosier state looks pretty good. Strong high pressure over the state today will move off to the east tomorrow and Wednesday and will bring nice, strong south wind flow over the region. That should bump temps up nicely and we will be looking at normal to above normal temps through the first half of the week with a lot of sunshine. That is the nice and easy part of the forecast.

For the second half of this week, we have a strong storm complex that is exiting the northern plains tomorrow moving across the upper Midwest and great lakes Wednesday-Thursday Friday. That strong low will spawn a cold front that rotates through northern IL, Indiana and Ohio for the Thursday-Friday time period. That front will bring a bit of rain to the state Thursday and especially Friday. WE look for rains of anywhere from .1”-.6” over about 60-70% of the state. Even though this moisture is a new addition to our forecast, the coverage is still hit and miss, and we only attain the 60-70% level combining the two days.

Dry for the weekend as high pressure takes control. However, we do see potential for scattered light shower action dipping into the northern third of the state next Monday with a weak upper level disturbance passing by to our north. Moisture totals will be under .25” with coverage at 50% of the northern third of the state, nothing farther south.

A bigger story for next week is a massive storm complex that moves out of the central plains next Tuesday and brings heavy rains to the SW Corn Belt Wednesday. This will spread north and east and will bring heavy rains to the state likely next Thursday. WE can see rains of 1-2” over nearly 90% of the state. There is plenty of time for this system to shift or modify, but right now, it looks very, very impressive and its track is directly at the state. This will bring a significant rain to all of Indiana’s soybeans, if the system remains on track. The map above shows rain potential for next week.

The rest of the extended period looks wetter as well, as that strong system for next Thursday has several follow up waves that linger across the state. We may add another half to 1.5” of rain for the 11^th through the 14^th. Finally, around the 15th, we see drier air starting to re-emerge across the state.