High pressure starts the day directly over the top of central Indiana. Temps dropped below freezing over the northern part of the state, the coldest in weeks, and well below normal. These temps were colder than we had been expecting…but we should bounce back closer to normal in the days to come. Still, it bears noting that we are not looking at any significant warm up to well above normal levels this coming week.

A warm front does try and move through tomorrow as the high moves away. This will trigger some scattered showers over about 60% of the state. Moisture totals do not look that impressive, but can be up to a half an inch in most areas that get rain. We have a little concern about central and especially east central Indiana with regard to potential thunderstorm development later tomorrow afternoon and evening. If they do break out, we could see some areas that part of the state get closer to an inch of totals precipitation. The rains will be most prevalent 75 miles either side of a line from Gary to Richmond. The above map shows rain totals through Wednesday morning.

Drier Wednesday. However, overnight Wednesday night and through Thursday, we do see moisture coming back to the southern half of the state, and some showers may make it as far north as US24. Rains will be most impressive south of I-70. WE can see rains linger through Friday as well over the southern third of the state. Combined totals can be .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the area from I-70 southward, and about 50% coverage from I-70 to US24. North of US24, we likely see nothing.

The weekend will be dry, and Monday and Tuesday of next week as well. WE see a little bit of light moisture forming over western IL next Wednesday, but if it manages to stay at bay, that would mean the entire state would be dry for 5 consecutive days…the longest streak in quite some time. And, over the northern third of the state, that streak would be 8 days…going back to this Wednesday. That will be welcome news to many producers. And, as we will point out below, the streak has potential to extend into the 11-16 day forecast window.

In the extended period, we are dry to start for next Thursday through the end of the weekend. However, starting Monday, the 22^nd, we see a strong storm complex slowly moving across the Corn Belt, and it will bring rains to Indiana for the 22^nd-24^th with rain totals of half to 1.5” and coverage at 100%. That system looks to be a nice rain maker.

 

 

Rain totals have been impressive over the state. Northern Indiana was the most fortunate as of last night with rain totals between 1 and 2 inches. Downstate, totals were much, much higher. The cold front associated with this storm complex will clear the state today, likely this morning, and then we will be left with wrap around moisture through the remainder of the day, meaning the heaviest rains are going to be done before the noon hour, but we will still have a damp, drippy kind of day through sunset.

 

The rest of this week is shaping up much like we talked about last week. WE will be dry over the state tomorrow through early Saturday over the northern half to third of the state. WE will be dry over the southern part of the state tomorrow and Wednesday. Wednesday night through Thursday we have moisture pushing back up over the southern half of the state and it could range from .25”-1.25”. The high end of the range will be with thunderstorms, most of the region will see up to .75”. WE have to watch east central Indiana, because later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night we can see moisture push north through Jay County and up toward Adams and Wells counties, around Decatur. Moisture will be .25”-.5” in those northern edge areas, but it is farther north than we had been looking at, and it makes sense, as the system expands as it moves east, to cover almost all of OH.

 

A quick moving little front moves in for next Saturday, bringing rains of a few hundredths to about a third of an inch to roughly 60% of the state. While it is not a lot of moisture, it does mean that we likely do not see enough drying in any area of the state to have significant field work this week. The moisture Saturday is out by early Sunday morning.

 

High pressure moves in for early Monday of next week, but our next system begins to affect the state Tuesday, as a warm front lifts through. WE do not expect much moisture Tuesday during the day, but can’t rule out a few showers. From Tuesday night through next Wednesday, the 10^th, we have half to 1.5” rains over 75% of the state.

 

In the extended window, another front is likely around the 12^th-13^th with .25”-.6” rain totals and 70% coverage. Behind that wave, clouds and moisture may be slow to leave, meaning we don’t see a lot of new precipitation, but we may not be set up to dry very fast either. It could be a very interesting start to May, and it is conceivable that we see no serious chance to get back into the fields until closer to May 20^th.

Showers develop across the state today as our next strong storm feature starts its push out of the plains into the Corn Belt. Showers likely hold off until early to midafternoon in most areas, and when they start, they will be light. WE also expect the showers to start first in south and southwest Indiana and build from there. Rains today likely will stay under.3”, and coverage will be about 60%.

Overnight tonight, rains start to increase in frequency, and then we see several waves of moisture move through over the weekend and through Monday. We will keep rain totals at 1-3.5” with coverage at 100%. WE can see stronger thunderstorms and severe weather cannot be ruled out. Flooding is also a distinct possibility, but we do not want to amp this up as much as everyone else seems to be. The long and short of it is that we have too much rain coming in the next 3-4 days.

Dry Tuesday and most of Wednesday statewide. Then showers develop over southern Indiana late Wednesday through Thursday. These showers will stay south of I-70 and will produce no more than .25”-.5” with 60-70% coverage south of I-70. There will be no rain up north. In fact, we see consecutive dry days from Tuesday through Sunday in the north. The one interruption Wednesday night and Thursday will be in in the south as well…so the intermediate forecast actually is not too bad. Problem is that we likely just get way to much rain this weekend for the good dry stretch to matter that much. Above is a map of 10 day rainfall potential.

High pressure over the Southeast US keeps IN/OH trending dry for the 8^th and 9^th, starting the extended forecast window. During that time, moisture is coming up the backside of the high across northern MO, IA, northern IL, WI/MN and MI. if the high wobbles or moves east sooner, rains will easily come in. But, for now, WE look for a strong lot to wait until the 10^th-12^th to move across the state. It will bring .5”-1.25” rains with 90% coverage.

Another strong low is likely toward the end of the extended period, around the 13^th=14^th, with rain totals of .5”-1.5” and coverage of 100%.

Temps will be rather cool at times this upcoming week as colder air funnels in behind this weekend’s system. However, we will not be as cold as what we are seeing in the plains this weekend. A couple of days this week we can have highs do no better than the lower 50s…but overnight lows should stay above freezing. Soil temps are in the 60s over most of the state….so while a few cold days will take temps down, we don’t think they will go below 50 degrees at the 4 inch level.

 

Rain and thunderstorm action started last night and continues to move across the state today. Additional rain are likely in the .25”-.75” range, not including the overnight moisture. A few heavier thunderstorms are still possible this morning, but really have run out of gas in the overnight. Action should be exiting the eastern part of the state by early afternoon.

Dry tonight and through most of tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon clouds and moisture starts to build back in from the SW ahead of our next system. Rains can begin in earnest overnight Friday night. Then we see rains Saturday, Sunday and early Monday. The heaviest day of rain likely is Sunday. All told, we still are keeping rains in the 1-3.5” range, with coverage at 100%.

No new precipitation expected next Tuesday. Wednesday looks dry north of I-70, but we could see another wave of action work into southern Indiana Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This would be from I-70 south. Rain totals can be .25”-.75, with coverage at 80% of the southern half of the state. WE dry down again for Friday into the weekend. That means that northern Indiana may be able to put together dry days back to back form Tuesday through Saturday. But, southern Indiana (south of I-70) will have an interruption Wednesday-Thursday.

High pressure remains in control to start the extended period. We still are watching for some half to 1.5” rains around the 9^th-10^th-11^th…although models have been reluctant to stick with a good timing solution.

Temps still normal to above normal today tomorrow and the weekend, but we get chilly to start next week. Temps may be a good 10 degrees below normal for Monday-Tuesday. But, then the rest of the week next week we should see temps start to climb back to normal and above normal levels.