No changes today to our overall forecast pattern. WE have a wet weekend in store, and 3 systems over the next 10 days, with 5 in the next 15 days. It will be a very active pattern into early April.

Very warm and mild today over the state thanks to southwest winds streaming in. Temps will be well above normal. This southwest flow is coming in ahead of a strong cold front and low pressure circulation that moves through tomorrow and Sunday. Rains for the complete weekend period look to be from .25”-1.5”, but we are reserving the top half of that range, from .75” to 1.5” only for areas that see significant thunderstorm action, which should be limited to under 10% of the state, thanks to timing of the frontal passage here. Most of the state will be between .25” and .75”. Coverage of rain this weekend will be nearly 100%. The map above shows cumulative rain totals through midnight Sunday.

We still have a brief dry period from overnight Sunday night through Monday midday. But we do not see clouds break very much. Our next little wave comes through for Monday night through Tuesday mid-morning. Rain totals look a little more impressive this morning for that wave, and we are upping our rain totals to .25”-.66” with coverage up to 80% of the state. The better rain totals may be over the northern half of the state, but we probably should not try and finesse the coverage that closely. Dry for the rest of Tuesday through Thursday.

The third system of this 10 day period begins to push in late Thursday night and has its biggest impact Friday. Rains are pegged in the .25”-1” range with coverage

90% of the state. The biggest change in our forecast comes around day 10, as we see another quick hit system arriving for Sunday the 2^nd, with only 12-18 hours’ worth of down time in-between next Fridays rains and the Sunday event. Rain for Sunday the 2^nd can be from .25”-.75” but if the system slows in its arrival from the southwest, those rain totals may need to be bumped, and we may have to talk about severe weather, as this system stretches into the extended period.

A final system for our forecast period holds on for the 6^th and 7^th, with rain totals up to half an inch.

Overall, temps look to be mostly normal to above normal while these rains develop and move through. Soil moisture totals should be seen at “surplus” levels by the time we make it through the first full week of April.

Warmer air flows into the state today as south winds come up the backside of high pressure exiting to the east. These south winds will likely usher in some clouds as well for the afternoon, as a warm front marches north. We have to watch that warm front late in the day, as it may trigger a bit of widely scattered light moisture tonight. Moisture totals will generally a few hundredths to a tenth or two, and will mostly be confined to northeast IN. Then we revert back to breezy and warm conditions for tomorrow with variable clouds across the state. We likely see good sunshine, but clouds can come and go fairly easily for your Friday. We expect no precipitation tomorrow.

A damp weekend is in store for us as a cold front slams the state Saturday and wrap around moisture holds over the state for Sunday. The threat of widespread thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon looks to be somewhat lower this morning than previously. We still think that SW Indiana can see a line or tow of stronger thunderstorms between sunset and midnight, but with that timing, those thunderstorms are likely not long lived. That also means, while we are keeping our rain totals statewide the same as we have been talking about, the threat of rains in the higher end of the range will be limited to a much smaller geographical area. Rains on Sunday will be more shower based, but still have the ability to produce good totals. For the combined 2-day period, we like rains from .25”-1.5”, with a large part of the state in the half to 1” part of that range. Coverage of rain will be nearly 100%. The map above shows cumulative rain totals through midnight Sunday.

We dry out briefly from Sunday night through Monday midday. However, we really do not see much of a chance for sun in that period, and clouds will be a dominate feature. Another quick moving wave of moisture is back in for Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Moisture totals are not impressive, with only .1”-.5” rain totals over about 75% of the state. Rains end sooner over the northern half of the state, but may linger into late Tuesday afternoon south of I-70. We do not see any strong threats of rain for the Wednesday time period next week, but by the same token, we hesitate to keep calling the period dry. Clouds likely dominate and we will have a damp feel after having rain 4 out of the prior 5 days.

A strong storm complex begins to nose in from the west and southwest starting next Thursday, but likely will not have a big impact until Friday. That means Thursday is going to be a pivotal day. If we see clouds hold firm, we likely will only see rains through the Thursday night-Friday period. However, if clouds break and we see some significant sun, that will ramp up the threat of thunderstorms as the cold front comes in Friday. Right now we are going conservative and looking for just rain and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm for the end of next week…but we have to watch Thursday very close. At this point, rains from Thursday night through Saturday morning look to be from .25” to 1” with coverage at 90% of the state. But, those totals can change easily with increased thunderstorm threats.

No change in the extended period, with a monster storm complex exiting the central plains and tracking right over the state for the 3^rd. We are keeping our rain totals at half to 1.5” for now, and continue to talk about a threat of severe weather in that timeframe. Behind that, another system sweeps in for the 6^th into the 7^th. Rain totals look smaller with that event, around .25”-.5”. However, the length of breaks between systems suggests we still will be quite wet with regard to soil conditions through the first week of April.

Soil temperatures have been stagnant over the past week in the north, as cold shots have limited the ability to gain significant warmth over the middle of the month. We are still several weeks out from having soil temps suitable for major work there. However, southern Indiana is getting very close to the key 50 degree threshold, and with warmer temps in over the next week, we may be ready to see some slightly more serious field work coming around.

Cold air is in over the state today as high pressure passes by to our north. North winds developed yesterday afternoon around the leading edge of the high pressure circulation, and that was responsible for the cloud development. Today, we should see more sunshine break through, even though temps are significantly cooler. Our temps today will be close to or even a bit below normal. However, as we transition to the backside of the high pressure this afternoon, south winds return, and temps should start to moderate. South winds help to fuel the warming tomorrow as well. But, anytime you put a switch together like that, you have to be on the lookout for a warm frontal boundary formation, and we think we see a minor warm front slipping through late tomorrow. This may be enough to trigger a few scattered light showers tomorrow night into early Friday, but only over the northern half to third of the state. Even there, the action is very hit and miss. WE look for rain totals of a few hundredths to a tenth maximum, coverage at no more than 20-30%.

The rest of Friday looks dry, and then we have a wet weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure circulation move in for Saturday and we have wrap around moisture for Sunday. There is the potential for some good thunderstorms with the cold front on Saturday as well. WE are looking for 2 day rain totals of .25”-1.5” with coverage at 80% of the state or more. However, the upper half of that rain range will be only for areas that see the thunderstorm development Saturday. Without the thunderstorms, this is more likely a .25”-.5” event, with a few areas sneaking closer to .75”.

A brief break comes in overnight Sunday night through the first part of Monday, but quickly we get our next wave for Monday afternoon into midday Tuesday. Rains with that little system will be from .1”-6” with coverage at about 60%. We think that coverage may be able to improve as we get closer to the event. The rains will be nice, gentle rains for the most part, with nearly normal to slightly above normal temps.

Mostly dry for Wednesday and Thursday, although clouds may be a big player for next Wednesday. Our next strong front and system comes in next Friday midday, the 31^st, and will have .25”-1” rain potential with 80% coverage. In the extended period, the active pattern continues, with a strong, severe weather producing system likely coming out of the central plains and across the state for the 2^nd through the 3^rd. Moderate to heavy rains can be with that as we look for totals of .5”-2” and 100% coverage. Another front moves in around the 6^th, this time coming from the northern plains and upper Midwest. That track means we are looking at more gentle rains, with a quarter to third of an inch possible toward the end of the 11-16 day window. The above map is an estimate of cumulative rain totals over the coming 10 days…the pattern is very active indeed!

We continue to see our weather develop into a very active pattern here as we finish the month of march. Yesterday’s rain totals were much more impressive in some spots, with moderate to heavy rains over the central and northeast parts of the state. Today we take a little break in most areas, and we should see some good weather through tomorrow and Thursday as well. The only exception will be down in extreme southern Indiana late this afternoon and tonight, as we may see some scattered showers and even a thunderstorm or two sneak in from US 50 southward, and in particular, near the river. Coverage will only be 25%, and rain totals mostly minor…but it is a feature to watch.
High pressure, albeit minor high pressure, will be in control for tomorrow and into early Thursday. This high will pass by mostly to the north, and should promote sunshine over most of the state. Temps may pull back slightly tomorrow, but will still be nearly normal, before south winds start to push our trend back higher again for late in the week. As those south winds develop, we can see some scattered light shower action pop up along a weak warm front lifting through the northern part of the state Thursday night into early Friday. Rain totals can be up to .25” from US 24 northward, with coverage at 50%. The rest of the state stays dry.

A strong cold front sweeps through the state this weekend. Moderate to heavy rains are likely Saturday with the potential for strong thunderstorms, then wrap around scattered showers hold in for Sunday. Weekend rain totals have the potential to be from .25”-1.5” with 100% coverage. The higher end of the range will be triggered by the potential for strong thunderstorms. The map above shows a snapshot of rain potential around midnight Saturday night.

A brief dry period should be in for next Monday and early Tuesday, but clouds will be thickening through Tuesday midday and afternoon. Then we have our next system moving through for Tuesday night through Thursday. Rain totals look to be from .25”-1” with coverage at 75% of the state. We see some significant holes in the coverage right now, but with the low pressure center tracking right over the state, there is a pretty good chance that those coverage holes fill in between now and the system’s arrival.

In the extended window, we would not be surprised to see a secondary wave of moisture coming up an old frontal boundary for next Friday that brings another half to 1 inch of rain, but there is potential that the second wave just gets absorbed into the system we are talking about for next Wednesday through Thursday morning…so stay tuned. Farther out in the extended period, our active pattern holds with another strong system coming out of the central plains and right across our state for the 3^rd and 4^th. This system likely has moderate to heavy rains, and the threat for some stronger thunderstorms. Rain totals likely can be half to 1.5”. There is nothing in this forecast that makes us stray from our thinking that we enter planting with surplus moisture in the soil profile.