Sunshine failed to materialize over sections of the state yesterday as warm air produced some decent low to mid-level cloud cover. Still, temps pushed to some of the warmest levels we have seen out of this warm push. But, big changes are coming our way. We expect more cloud development and thickening today as moisture gets closer to the state. Scattered light shower action starts to nose into the state late this afternoon into this evening, as a warm front sets up over northern Indiana and lifts north. The rains will be generally light with coverage at about 60%. Totals will be mostly a few hundredths to a quarter inch, and like we have stated previously, will be toward the higher end of the range the closer you get to the MI line.

Tomorrow we see strong southwest flow in across the state ahead of the approaching cold front. We look for clouds to break up quite a bit and several good hours of sunshine to be in over most of the state. That will be key to watch, as we already have the national severe storms center putting us in an enhanced area of risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon. In our opinion, the ability of that severe weather to develop will hinge greatly on how much sunshine and how much heating we
see over the state ahead of the cold front’s arrival. This is a nearly perfect set up for some strong weather, with the most likely concern revolving around hail. Storms and heavier rain develops later tomorrow afternoon and goes into tomorrow night. Rain totals can be an additional .25”-.75” with coverage at 80%. The potential for the heaviest rains will be over the eastern part of the state, particularly east central and southeast Indiana. Much colder air comes in behind the front, but will not arrive until the moisture is actually gone with the initial frontal passage. The maps above show the severe weather areas of concern for tomorrow late afternoon, and an estimated radar set up tomorrow around 9-10 pm.

On Saturday, we see cold air overspread most of the state, with temps at or below freezing all the way down through the US 50 corridor. WE still see potential for some lake enhanced snow over the northern third of Indiana, but the threat may not be as dramatic. Mostly that threat will be over far northern counties in north central and NW Indiana, and only through Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, south winds will have returned and we see temps back in the 40s over most of the state, and we could be pushing 50 already I southern Indiana.

Monday a few scattered showers move in over southern Indiana with a few hundredths to .2” potential from I-70 southward. Coverage will be nearly 100% of southern Indiana with these showers Monday, but they are honestly just a precursor of a much bigger system still on the way for late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ahead of the midnight hour Tuesday night we start to see the leading edge a very powerful circulation moves into west and southwest Indiana. Rains will become heavy very quickly between midnight Tuesday night and sunrise Wednesday, spreading over 90% of the state. The heaviest rains now look to be in central and especially southern Indiana, and should be exiting by midday to early afternoon. Rain totals can easily be from half to 2” with coverage at 75%, and another 20% of the state can see up to half an inch. This system likely triggers some flooding in central and southern Indiana, purely due the fast rate of rainfall and the quick moving of this event.

Another push of colder air comes in behind that system for early march. However, temps will not be quite as chilly as what we see this Saturday, meaning that we are only back closer to normal, and likely only for a day, before we start to creep back higher. We finish the rest of the 10-day period with temps mostly normal to above normal and dry weather.

In the extended period, Models are trying to bring a system through around the 6^th that passes by to the north of the state. However, there is a though process that the system will be strong enough to trigger a deep trough dig in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern third of the country, and we will see a major push lower in temps. While we have been watching for a cold air push straddling the 10^th and lasting for 4-6 days for a while now, we also think that the system moving through around the 6^th is not the right “type” of system to trigger the upper level flow change. So…at this point we are not getting too worked up about the moisture potential in the extended window, but rather watching for cues about something that triggers the jet stream to start to dig south. We suspect there will be a surge I cold air coming across the north pole that will start this move…and right now, we are looking for most signs of that particular air mass starting to move. Stay tuned. In spite of how it has felt recently…we don’t think winter is quite over yet…and cold air will come back in spectacular fashion…even if only for a handful of days.

 

Brazil:

• Scattered, heat based showers and thunderstorms will show up here and there in Matto Grosso and into northern Brazil over the next several days, but not much to the south.
• Areas like Matto Grosso do Sul, southern Goias, Minas Gerais, and areas southward don’t see any moisture today-tomorrow.
• Better moisture tries to develop on Friday in Matto Grosso through Parana and Sao Paulo, bringing .5-1” of rain with 75% coverage in those areas.
• That moisture doesn’t hold together as it moves further north, with just scattered hit and miss action up there through the weekend.
• If you combine everything from Friday through the middle of next week, cumulative totals will be between 1-2”, which means there will be some dry weather and harvesting opportunities in there.
• Matto Grosso will be the only area that’ll need to dodge showers more frequently.
• Wednesday-Friday of next week will see some stalled out, frontal boundary action from Matto Grosso through southeast Minas Gerais, with showers and thunderstorms combining to give at least 1” of moisture from Thursday-next Saturday, with coverage at 75% of Brazil’s crop areas.
• Timely moisture will be coming through but harvest should continue to ramp up, especially this week as there will be a slight increase in shower frequencies next week.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above.

 

Argentina:

• Thunderstorms are set to move into the far northern areas today but rains falls outside of the biggest crop areas in the country.
• The rest of the country stays dry through a good chunk of this week and there won’t be any significant moisture until Sunday in southern Argentina.
• Thunderstorms develop in southern Buenos Aires province through La Pampa on Sunday morning, and then lifts north, bringing rain through Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe, through most of Cordoba.
• Moisture totals will be .25-1” with 75-80% coverage in those specific areas.
• Next week, that moisture falls apart as it moves further north, bringing .25” or less on Monday-Tuesday in central/northern Argentina.
• Dry then through the rest of next week, with a few scattered showers at midweek in central Argentina, but they go away quickly, totaling .25-1/3” and coverage at only 40%.
• Temps will be normal to slightly below over the next 10 days.
• Dry windows mixed in with rains should allow crops to have a good period of growth and development, especially after weekend rains weren’t as heavy as some were expecting.

 

Ukraine/FSU/Black Sea weather:

• A secondary moisture push will follow it in late tonight-tomorrow and another .03-.25” with 80% coverage in Ukraine, with slightly less coverage in central Russia.
• They’re seeing good moisture coming through with temps normal to slightly above normal this week, and that second wave tonight-tomorrow will mostly fall as liquid.
• Another strong low moves out of Europe and across Russia, taking a more northern track on Friday, missing a good part of growing areas in Russia and the Black Sea region.
• More moisture moves into Ukraine on Saturday, totaling .25-1/3” again as a mix of rain/snow, and centered on eastern parts of Ukraine before moving into central Russia.
• That means we’re looking at systems every couple of days this week before taking a bit of a break next week.
• A monster high sets up over the northern part of central Russia, keeping things dry next week from Monday-Friday, bringing cold air in to start, but on the backside of the high, south wind flow will bump temps up dramatically across Ukraine and most of Russia by the end of next week.
• Light moisture out of eastern Europe could move into Ukraine and central/southern Russia late next Friday-Saturday if it can hold together.

Corn Belt weather:

• Today looks to see record high temps in the Corn Belt; for example, Chicago could be in the 70s today, which not only would be an all time record, it would be an overall record for a winter season day.
• The next weather system kicks out of the central Rockies tomorrow; by the afternoon, that low pushes across KS and the leading edge will push precipitation across IA, northern IL, southern WI, northern IN, and lower MI.
• The low then continues to move east/northeast, taking moisture with it, with heavy snow across NE, into west/northern IA, extreme southern MN, and southern WI; rain will fall south of that line.
• Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will be .25-1.25”, with the heaviest precipitation across parts of IA, southern WI, and northern IL; they’ll see lighter totals than that in the eastern Corn Belt states, including IN, MI, and OH from .25-.75”.
• There won’t be much precipitation south of I-70 at all before a cold front attached to the low sweeps through, giving those southern spots light precipitation totaling .25” or less.
• High pressure will move in behind this system and hold over the weekend, with temps at or just below freezing; corn that was planted in IL will not enjoy that.
• Temps won’t be way below normal or stay there for any stretch of time, we’re just getting back to near normal because it is still February.
• Scattered light precipitation Sunday night-Monday tries to lift into IL and IN totaling .03-.25” as an offshoot of a low in AR.
• Over the rest of next week, a strong low pressure center works into the Corn Belt Tuesday-Wednesday, bringing moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms into IN, OH, and IL, and massive snows into the Upper Midwest, including the Great Lakes region, WI, and MN.
• Liquid equivalent will be .25-1.25” and snowfall could total 3-8”up in the Great Lakes.
• The action should be done later on Wednesday, with some rain and thunderstorms left in OH.
• Thursday and Friday look dry with high pressure in control and temps close to normal for this time of year; if we get south wind flow behind the high temps should moderate a bit.
• We’re not looking at a massive cold air push but the springtime temps we’ve seen over the last 10 days are likely done.
• The extended forecast shows another frontal boundary complex moving into the Corn Belt March 6-7.

 

Deep South weather:

• Thunderstorms continue to circulate just offshore of the Gulf of Mexico and will push into the FL peninsula today, with thunderstorms and some potentially strong to severe weather there.
• There could be offshoot showers moving up into GA and the Carolinas, with coverage only at 30% and totals of .25” or less.
• Over the rest of the week, the strong system up north really doesn’t have much of an impact on the south.
• Friday afternoon/night there could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through KY and TN with 40% coverage in those states, but the rest of the Deep South will see nothing.
• The weekend looks dry with strong high pressure in play.
• Next week starts with showers and thunderstorms on Monday moving over AR into western TN and northern MS, with totals of .25-1” and 70% coverage; as the mositure moves east into Tuesday it dissipates to .03-.25” over the remaining 60% of the Deep South.
• A strong frontal complex Wednesday-Thursday will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms with severe weather a possibility, with moisture totaling .5-1.5” with 80% coverage in the Deep South, but the higher end of the totals will be in the northern part of the region.
• High pressure moves back in Thursday afternoon, keeping the area dry through the weekend.
• Moisture may try to move up the backside of the high on March 5 from TX through AR and LA.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Great plains gets active over the next 24 hours as low pressure moves out of CO into western/central KS through tomorrow afternoon/evening as moisture spreads along the top edge of the low, running from the MO valley, through NE, into WY, and northeast CO.
• NE, WY, and northeast CO are in line for significant snowfalls from late tonight-Friday, with totals of 3-8” in NE and WY, and 1-4” in northeast CO and extreme northwest KS.
• If totals fluctuate at all, it’ll be to the higher end of the range in NE and WY.
• Don’t see much activity south of I-70 in KS and there won’t be much north of I-90 in SD; areas like ND, OK, and TX look good the next few days as primarily the central part of the plains gets hit hard.
• The snow is gone by Friday evening and high pressure keeps the entire length of the plains dry through the weekend as temps get back closer to normal.
• Low pressure moves into north TX and OK Sunday night-Monday, with 75% coverage in OK totaling .25-.5” and doesn’t get farther south than the Red River in TX or farther north than US 54 in KS.
• Moisture develops at midweek in the Four Corners region moving into the plains Tuesday night-Wednesday, but there won’t be a lot of moisture with it as it moves into the plains, so it may just bring a few scattered showers into KS and OK, totaling .25” or less.
• ND may actually see some decent snowfall from this low Tuesday night-Wednesday and sweep into parts of MN, with totals of 1-4” possible, but it is a very hit and miss event and a large part of the plains won’t see anything.
• Thunderstorms could fire off on Wednesday as a cold front lingers over OK and TX, possibily into southern KS, but overall coverage in the plains will only by 30%.
• Thursday-Friday of next week look dry.

Sunny, warm weather is back today with temps rivaling what we saw this past weekend, even exceeding that in some areas.  But, our next system begins its move into the state tomorrow afternoon and evening, increasing clouds as it noses in. Moisture begins tomorrow night as a warm front lifts across the state. Moisture totals do not look overly impressive, with a few hundredths up to a quarter of an inch possible. The rains are mostly north of the IN/MI line by shortly after sunrise Friday morning. Southwest winds pick up through Friday ahead of the system’s cold front that comes in late Friday afternoon. This will bring better rains in for Friday evening and overnight, with rain totals from a few hundredths up to half an inch. All told, the combined rains from Thursday night through Friday midnight will be from .1”-.5” over about 80% of the state.

Much colder air is in for the start of the weekend. Strong winds come down the fetch of Lake Michigan and will trigger clouds over at least the northern half of the state. WE have concern about lake effect snow with perhaps some accumulations over the norther third to quarter of the state, particularly in the usual lake effect locations in north central and NW Indiana. Snow totals don’t look to be overly dramatic, but we will see those potential accumulations after over a week of temps that are more April and May-like…so it will grab a lot of people’s attention.

Next week we continue to see a strong system moving through for Tuesday the 28^th through Wednesday March 1. This system has .25”-1.25” rain potential with coverage at 100% of the state. There is still some concern about some strong thunderstorms with the system and some heavy rains, especially Wednesday. Ahead of that system, we can see some scattered showers Monday afternoon over southern Indiana that may lead to a few hundredths to a tenth over about 30% of the region.

Beyond that, our next system in the extended period is on track for arrival around the 6^th into the 7^th of March, with rain potential up to half an inch.