No change in the forecast this morning over the state. We continue to see sunny, dry weather, and temps will slowly expand as we finish the week and the weekend. Temps will be above normal, and this weekend should be well above normal statewide. In fact, temps this weekend will be more like what we would expect in late march or April. Our next precipitation event is not coming in until next Tuesday. The map above shows max temps for Saturday…which are nowhere near where we should be!!

Ahead of that event, we likely see clouds start to build Monday, as warm air holds over the state. Scattered showers move in with the warm front late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This first wave of moisture is likely worth a few hundredths to about .3” of light rain over 80% of the state. There will be a lull in the action from Tuesday midday through Wednesday morning, before nice, compact little low pressure circulation and cold front comes through bringing additional light rains to about 50% of the state. These rains will be from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch. So, you can see we are reducing our overall look at moisture next week to a range of .1”-.5” over 2 days, with coverage at 80%. But, we are not removing precipitation entirely at this point. The coverage of rain will rely heavily on the first wave of moisture Monday night into Tuesday…as the second wave is fairly unimpressive.

Behind that system, we see cooler air returning over the state, but no additional precipitation. WE should be dry Thursday through Friday with temps closer to normal, but still not below normal. A strong front is likely going to try and work in shortly thereafter as we start the extended period. This front comes out of the plains and moves into the eastern corn belt from late next Friday night through Saturday, bringing potential for half to 1 inch rains and coverage of nearly all of the state. There should be a significant warm air push ahead of the low, but colder air can wrap in on the backside, and it may be cold enough to trigger a little bit of snow.

Farther out in the extended window, another front works into the state for the night of the 1^st into the 2^nd. This front is not nearly as impressive up in Indiana, with a quarter to half an inch of moisture at best. But, what is interesting is the track of the system over TN. If cold air can hold on in the great lakes, this may trigger a chance of snow over northern Indiana with this system and its current track. There is plenty of time to get it to lift farther north, or sink farther south, but it is interesting nonetheless. Right now we keep rains over 1.5” south of the OH river.

As an added bonus commentary this morning, we can say that a few models are starting to suggest a major cold push for about 4-6 days in early to mid-march, straddling March 10. This cold air would be coming straight across the north pole, streaming down into the nation’s midsection. In a normal year, this would not be that much of a story, as temps, while cold, will only be somewhat below normal. But, this year, with a warm January and a warm pattern developing for the second half of February…this cold push, if it is realized, will garner some good attention.

 

Brazil:

• There could still be heavy rains in spots, especially in Matto Grosso, through the rest of today, but the heaviest rains only cover 10-20% of the country, with general rain coverage at 60-70% today-early tomorrow.
• Most of Brazil crop areas will be dry by midday tomorrow and holds through Friday, with any rainfall confined to the western half of Matto Grosso, where they could see .25-1.5” from Wednesday-Friday.
• There won’t be any weather systems working in after that, keeping the mostly dry pattern in place through the weekend.
• There may be pop up heat based action in Matto Grosso, Goias, into Matto Grosso do Sul, with moisture of .25-.5” and hit and miss coverage at 50%.
• Monday-Wednesday will see just some pop up action, with the next front holding off until later in the week.
• After the recent run of heavy rains, things are turning drier.
• Even the area hit by 13” of rain had already finished harvest, so it may have delayed planting or forced re-planting in that area, which there is still plenty of time to do.
• I don’t think it’ll be too much of an impact, but we’ll see what the market thinks.
• Temps will be normal to a little above.

Argentina:

• Dry weather will be the rule today over all key crop areas and holds through Thursday.
• The exception will be light rains to the north, including Chaco and northern Santa Fe, on Thursday afternoon, worth .25-.5” there.
• A few scattered showers come together in BA, Entre Rios, Santa Fe, and Cordoba on Friday, that could be worth .25-1.5” rains, especially if they see some thunderstorms, with coverage at 50-60% of key crop areas.
• Two day totals from Friday-Saturday likely bump to .5-2” as showers linger into the early weekend.
• The moisture is gone by Sunday and next week starts mostly dry, with scattered showers in north/northwest growing areas Monday afternoon-Tuesday but it won’t go farther south.
• Mainly scattered showers/thunderstorms from Tuesday-Friday popping up with 30-40% coverage each day, and each day will see at least some moisture somewhere in the country.
• Temps in Argentina will be mostly normal.

Ukraine/Russia/FSU weather:

• Very gusty winds in central Russia that could lead to some light precipitation totaling .1-.25” only yet today, with 60% coverage of Russia’s central region and even extreme eastern Ukraine.
• Gusty winds may bring down cold air but it won’t be the extreme cold, just back closer to normal.
• Dry weather holds from Wednesday-Friday.
• A few light showers will be possible over the weekend totaling a few hundredths/.1” at best.
• Colder air starts to come down early next week and does so without precipitation so there will be some uncovered crops that will run into some arctic air.
• There will be some snow that moves through Tuesday-Wednesday along with 20-40 MPH winds, so there may be some wind damage there.
• The cold air moves away and temps warm up big on Wednesday-Thursday, leading to .25-.5” rainfall over Ukraine and central Russia.
• There is some moisture coming next week but it’s coming with some harsh conditions, very windy and some bitterly cold air, so there may be some winterkill over there on wheat.

 

Corn Belt weather:

• Cloud cover stretches over MO, IL, IN, and OH, but there isn’t a lot of moisture with it, limited to the boot heel of MO and along the OH River valley.
• We don’t expect the moisture to work farther north, staying mostly south of the Corn Belt.
• A cool front sliding out of Canada will impact places like northern MN and the northern Great Lakes this afternoon but basically brings just cooler air.
• The rest of this week will be sunny and dry, with south winds taking temps back up starting tomorrow and getting well above normal Friday-Sunday, with no major weather isssues across the region.
• This pattern holds into next week, but there is a batch of moisture coming out of the central plains on Monday and into the western Belt Monday night-Tuesday, with scattered showers stretching from the MN arrowhead through MO, and then moves eastward.
• Models don’t agree on how the moisture holds together but right now we see it hitting the MS River and decaying a bit as it moves east of the river, meaning a few widely scattered showers for IL, IN, and OH, on Tuesday night-Wednesday and totaling .25” or less.
• Totals in the western Corn Belt will be .25-.75” and coverage west of the MS River at 75-80%, east of the MS River it’ll be 50% at best.
• After that, we settle in for another run of sunny and dry weather with temps above normal and really no pulldown in temps after the system moves away.
• A big low comes together in the central Rockies/western plains Thursday night-Friday, moving into northeast CO and bringing some significant moisture totaling .5-1” with strong gusty winds on Feb 26-27 across the heart of the Corn Belt.
• Temps cool down a bit for a couple days but most of the rest of the next 10 days will be well above normal.
• The extended forecast is showing another frontal boundary complex moving into the Corn Belt around March 1-2.

 

Deep South weather:

• A dry start to today but moisture will build into the western part of the region later today-this evening, starting in AR and LA around 6 p.m. with rain and thunderstorms, with some heavy rains thanks to possible strong thunderstorms.
• The action moves east over the rest of the region through the overnight-tomorrow, leaving behind totals in AR and LA of .5-1.5” and then .25-.75” over the eastern part of the region, with overall coverage in the Deep South at 80-90%.
• Strong high pressure moves in over the western part of the region starting tomorrow and the high sits over the region through the end of the week/weekend.
• There may be a little moisture this weekend, Friday night-Saturday, just off the Gulf coast, but models say some will try to shift northward onto land through Saturday afternoon.
• The FL panhandle could see a few thunderstorms, as well as central parts of MS, AL, and GA could get a few scattered showers.
• High pressure is back in control to start next week on Monday, but late Monday night-Tuesday, a strong front moves in from the west, bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms over AR, LA, and western MS.
• The front then slowly works east, with overall coverage at 75%, and totals will be .5-1.5” in the western part of the region and .25-1” totals maximum in the eastern parts of the Deep South.
• A strong low will develop out of the remains of this front over areas just off the FL coast late next Friday, which could leave some lingering moisture over FL, the GA coastline, and the NC/SC coastline, late next week.
• The extended forecast shows activity Feb 26-28 with a fairly strong front coming out of the western US and could affect the Deep South with .5-1.5” rains.
• The souther drought talked about last fall is likely over with the moisture ahead in the forecast.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Action continues in the southern plains today with moisture over OK and TX, stopping at the KS/OK line, as rain totals will be .5-1.5” with heavy thunderstorms possible in east TX and eastern OK.
• The rest of the plains are dry and high pressure will park over KS tonight, and nothing will happen in the plains for the rest of the week.
• South winds will push temps up and they should be well above normal to finish the week and go into the weekend.
• Next week’s weather looks tranquil as well, but keeping an eye out Sunday night-Monday for moisture moving across east TX and OK, with scattered showers stretching up into parts of KS.
• Scattered showers start off in central/eastern KS on Monday but there won’t be much in the western plains.
• Monday night/Tuesday, strong low pressure moves into ND, bringing light rain/snow to eastern ND and SD, but totals will be light with moisture equivalent at .25” or less, and coverage will be 20% of the plains or less.
• Dry through the rest of next week from Tuesday-Thursday, and strong low pressure sets up in northeast CO next Thursday night-Friday.
• 20-40 MPH south winds will come in with the low, setting up another potential blowtorch event in the central/southern plains next Friday.
• There will be good mositure rotating around the top/backside as well, falling on Thursday night in the western Dakotas through MT, WY, western CO, UT, and into NM, then pushing east.
• That moisture will finish out next week on Friday/Saturday, and could fall as both rain and snow, so a big-time system out there on day 10 of the forecast.

 

Another nice day today as we remain under the influence of high pressure. We should see good sunshine through the day with temps staying cool. Clouds may try and builds into the state overnight tonight as an upper level wave sweeps through the great lakes through tomorrow. We think there is less of a chance of that moisture coming south in our forecast today than what we were concerned about yesterday. At this point, we think we are mostly looking at clouds tonight into tomorrow.  Following that wave, we see sunshine and fairly pleasant conditions for the week and upcoming weekend. Temps will be mostly normal to slightly above normal – a little cool to start, but generally much better than we should be looking at for mid February. In fact by the end of the week we should be well above normal.

Our outlook for next week is unchanged at this time, but we may have to make some changes in the days ahead. We still look for scattered showers Tuesday into Wednesday that can bring totals of .25”-.75” over about 90% of the state. However, the latest European model run shows the moisture moving into western parts of the state Tuesday morning, and then just stopping, falling apart and moving away. If that turns out to be the case, we would see coverage at only 30% and most of the state would be dry all the way through next week. Again…it’s not a change we are making at this time, but if we see other models build consensus, we will have to change.

The rest of the week should be dry with above normal temps. In the extended period, we have another strong front for the 26^th-27^th that brings half to 1 inch rain potential. The track is still up in the air, and that may allow for some snow to mix in, but given the warm air pattern that seems to be emerging…we are continuing to trend our forecast to all liquid.