Brazil:

• A plume of moisture is working over Brazil that started this weekend, with a nice trail from south/southeast Brazil up through the rest of the country.
• We have seen reports of heavy rains over the last two days, including 13” of rainfall in one spot, but the coverage isn’t spectacular.
• Today, a band of rain runs west to east, across Matto Grosso into Goias, with rains then stretching north, and overall totals of 1-3” but there will be a large part of Brazil that only gets .25-.5” of rain.
• Rains could be heavy in spots, especially in Matto Grosso, from today-tomorrow, but the heaviest rains only cover 10-20% of the country, with general rain coverage at 60-70% today-early Wednesday.
• Most of Brazil crop areas will be dry by midday Wednesday which holds through Friday, and any rainfall is confined to the western half of Matto Grosso, where they could see .25-1.5” from Wednesday-Friday.
• There won’t be any weather systems working in after that, keeping the mostly dry pattern in place through the weekend, although there may be pop up heat based action in Matto Grosso, Goias, into Matto Grosso do Sul, with moisture of .25-.5” and hit and miss coverage at 50%.
• Monday-Wednesday will see just some pop up action, with the next front holding off until later in the week.
• After the recent run of heavy rains, things are turning drier.
• Even the area hit by 13” of rain had already finished harvest, so it may have delayed planting or forced re-planting in that area, which there is still plenty of time to do.
• I don’t think it’ll be too much of an impact, but we’ll see what the market thinks.
• Temps will be normal to a little above.

Argentina:

• A strong low pressure area is rotating just off the coast of Uruguay and southern Brazil, giving a few scattered showers to Buenos Aires and that’s about it for today.
• Dry weather will be the rule by tomorrow over all key crop areas and holds through Thursday, with the exception being light rains to the north, including Chaco and northern Santa Fe, on Thursday afternoon, worth .25-.5” there.
• A few scattered showers come together in BA, Entre Rios, Santa Fe, and Cordoba on Friday, that could be worth .25-1.5” rains, especially if they see some thunderstorms, with coverage at 50-60% of key crop areas.
• Two day totals from Friday-Saturday likely bump to .5-2” as showers linger into the early weekend.
• The moisture is gone by Sunday and next week starts mostly dry, with scattered showers in north/northwest growing areas Monday afternoon-Tuesday but it won’t go farther south.
• Mainly scattered showers/thunderstorms from Tuesday-Friday popping up with 30-40% coverage each day, and each day will see at least some moisture somewhere in the country.
• Temps in Argentina will be mostly normal.

Ukraine/Russia/FSU weather:

• It’s a dry start to the week, with very gusty winds in central Russia that could lead to some light precipitation totaling .1-.25” only tonight-tomorrow, with 60% coverage of Russia’s central region and even extreme eastern Ukraine.
• Gusty winds may bring down cold air but it won’t be the extreme cold, just back closer to normal.
• Dry weather holds from Wednesday-Friday, with a few light showers over the weekend that may total a few hundredths/.1” at best.
• Colder air starts to come down early next week and does so without precipitation so there will be some uncovered crops that will run into some arctic air.
• There will be some snow that moves through Tuesday-Wednesday along with 20-40 MPH winds, so there may be some wind damage there.
• The cold air moves away and temps warm up big on Wednesday-Thursday, leading to .25-.5” rainfall over Ukraine and central Russia.
• There is some moisture coming next week but it’s coming with some harsh conditions, very windy and some bitterly cold air, so there may be some winterkill over there on wheat.

Corn Belt weather:

– Strong high pressure continues to move into the Corn Belt and take control, keeping the Corn Belt basically dry all week.
– A weak upper level disturbance over Canada may drag a little moisture through northern MN, northern WI, and into MI on Wednesday.
– Another strong high pressure dome will finish out the week on Thursday-Friday as temps will be mostly above normal this week, with the biggest surge at the end of the week.
– The weekend stays dry with above normal temps before the next system moves in from the Great Plains overnight Sunday night-Monday, bringing moisture from northern MN, through IA, MO, and into the Deep South, tracking eastward on Monday afternoon.
– It’s moving across the eastern Corn Belt by Monday night/Tuesday, with overall coverage at 90% from Monday-early Wednesday, with rain totals of .25-1.25” of moisture.
– There may even be thunderstorm development in MO and southern IL, which would bump totals higher.
– A dry pattern will follow that system from Wednesday-Friday, with the potential for light snow out of Canada and into northern MN Wednesday night-Thursday, but it doesn’t get further south.
– Temps for mid-Feb will be normal to above but there won’t be a runaway to the upside like we saw last week over a good chunk of the Corn Belt.
– The extended forecast shows another strong low pressure circulation moving over the Corn Belt Feb 25-26 that could have .5-1” potential, likely all liquid but will keep an eye out for snow even though the cold air versus warm air battle is consistently being won by the warm air and I don’t expect that to change.

Deep South weather:

– High pressure is in control to start the week and staying there through at least Tuesday night.
– By Tuesday night-Wednesday, a cluster of thunderstorms moves across MO and AR, bringing moderate to heavy rains there, and then moving across the rest of the region for the balance of Wednesday, including AL, MS, GA, NC, and SC.
– It’s a fast-moving event, with rain totals in the Deep South at .5-1” of moisture and coverage is 90%, although areas that miss out may include KY and western TN.
– High pressure is back in control by Thursday and keeps things dry through the weekend.
– Thunderstorms sit just off the Gulf from Friday night-Saturday and won’t hit anyone except the FL peninsula on Saturday with some potential strong thunderstorm action.
– The next system moves in Monday morning with heavy thunderstorms in AR and LA, with the potential for some flooding if things work out they way they appear to as rain totals look like 1-2.5” in LA.
– This is part of a strong front that’ll move across the region on Tuesday-Wednesday with almost 100% coverage in the region Monday-Tuesday night.
– Totals will range from .5-2.5” with the heaviest amounts in the western half of the region as it loses some punch the farther east it travels, so GA, FL, NC, and SC may see .25-.75” amounts.
– After the system moves away, things dry out with high pressure sitting right over New Orleans by noon on Wednesday, bringing a beautiful finish to the week.
– Watching another low come together in the Four Corners region by next Thursday and that could bring precipitation to the Deep South by next weekend, Feb 25-26, depending on the track.

Great Plains weather:

– It’s a north/south setup in the plains to start the week, with nothing from I-70 northward all week long and temps going normal to well above normal, especially in the Dakotas.
– South of the KS/OK line will see some good moisture over the next couple of days across TX and OK.
– Rainfall today-Wednesday in TX and OK could be .5-1.5” but you may need to add .5-.75” more in the eastern half of each state, with coverage at 75% of those areas.
– The extreme southern areas of KS could see incursions of light showers tonight, likely totaling .25” or less.
– Once the system moves out, the plains will be dry for the rest of this week/the weekend.
– Things get more active Sunday night-Monday as a low comes out of the central Rockies and while it doesn’t have a lot of organization at first, it’ll come together by Monday morning.
– It starts with thunderstorms in TX and OK on Sunday afternoon, with overall totals in the plains at .25-1” with 50-60% coverage across the entire plains stretching from Canada down to Mexico.
– The action rotates over the northern plains by midday on Monday and could turn into a fairly significant rainmaker in ND from Monday-Tuesday, adding another .25-.5” up there, and there likely won’t be any snow mixing in.
– The rest of the plains is dry Tuesday-Wednesday, with lingering rain up in ND on Tuesday but it’s done on Wednesday, with just cloud cover hanging around the rest of the week.

Sunny and dry weather is in store for the Hoosier state for the better part of a week. In fact, we see our next chance of precipitation holding off until next Monday night and Tuesday…the 20th into the 21st. But, before we get there let’s talk about this week.

Colder air came in yesterday in the wake of a cold front. Strong northwest winds developed. Those should be dramatically lower today. We settle into a pattern dominated by high pressure for the rest of the week. The only hiccup may come on Wednesday, as an upper level wave sweeps through the great lakes. We still think that precipitation stays well north of the state, but there can be some clouds sneaking into the northern third to half of the state for Wednesday, and we wont completely rule out a sprinkle or two north of US 30, even if we think that the chances are pretty low. Other than that, we see sunshine and fairly pleasant conditions for the week and upcoming weekend. Temps will be mostly normal to slightly above normal – a little cool to start, but generally much better than we should be looking at for mid February.

Now, for next week, we have a warm front fueled by strong southwest winds, lifting in for next Monday night into Tuesday. That will trigger scattered showers of .25”=.5” over a good chunk of the state. A cold front will follow that in for later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, bringing an additional .25”-.5”. All told, we like rains of .25-.75” over almost all of the state for the combined period. This will be rain that will be coming after a week long dry stretch and it will come very well received. Temps will be warm enough to ensure all rain, and we expect no thunderstorm action or heavy rain. No flooding is anticipated.

In the extended period, we have another strong low working out of the central plains and close to the region around the 26th of February. This low right now looks like it wants to track a little farther south, more into the OH valley. However, this far out, we are leaving all options open, and that may allow this system to gravitate north. With no major cold air outbreaks in over the region, we likely are still warm enough to get mostly liquid. Rain totals look to have a preliminary potential of .25”-.75”, but over a 12 hour period. This will be the system that we really will want to watch for the second half of the month…as track could promote better snow potential, if cold air materializes.

However, back to the short term…the coming 7 days look to have as close to perfect weather as one could expect for mid February.

Brazil:

• Significant moisture is over northeast Brazil today-tomorrow, with rains totaling .5-2” across Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and into Goias, which have been some of the driest areas in the country.
• Tomorrow afternoon-night, the moisture builds back west into eastern Matto Grosso, then spreading over the northern half of Brazil’s corn and soybean growing areas.
• By the time we hit Monday, it’s centered over the top of Matto Grosso with .5-2” totals there, plus there’s a nice batch of moisture over southeast Brazil Sunday night-Tuesday totaling .5-1.5” and 100% coverage.
• Drier air then moves in over the east/northeast areas first and into south/southeast Brazil next on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday, which should allow the ground to use that moisture that falls ahead of the dry weather.
• There may be some scattered leftover showers in Matto Grosso Wednesday-Thursday, but Thursday afternoon-early Saturday things should dry out, which means harvest and second crop corn planting should be able to ramp up and go all out.
• Southeast Brazil will see moisture on Feb 20, totaling another .5-1.5” rains before spreading to the north and east.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above with no major heat now, with temps in the 11-16-day forecast going below normal in the northeast.

Argentina:

• Moderate to heavy rains over the northern quarter of growing areas today-tomorrow, with totals in some areas approaching 2-4” but those amounts stay north of the most productive growing areas.
• The moisture will linger into tomorrow-Sunday with a strong circulation, and some areas like northern Santa Fe and Chaco will see heavy moisture Saturday night-Sunday, but it should stay out of most areas that were hit hard by heavy rains weeks ago.
• Sunday night-Monday, some of the moisture moves into Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires totaling .5-1.5” there, but the low never really goes away.
• It wobbles into BA on Monday night-Tuesday, bringing another .5-1” there before it’s done.
• Once the moisture is finally done, we should see a dry period over a good chunk of Argentina through the middle of next week before the next round of precipitation over the northern third of growing areas on Thursday afternoon.
• Rain totals will be .25-1.25” of moisture with 60-70% coverage and that moisture kind of lingers through the rest of next week over northeast Argentina before moving into Uruguay and south/southeast Brazil.
• Over the next ten days, the heaviest moisture looks to fall in the northern third of the country, with the southern third not seeing a lot of action outside of scattered showers in BA, with the central third of the country seeing some action but not as much as they do in the north.
• Temps will depend on where the moisture is falling; for example, temps look colder than normal, especially in the northern part of the country where rain is falling the heaviest, but warm air will push up from the south next week but temps are still below normal in the northern half of the country.
• Temps should try to move back above normal late next week, with the above and below normal temps battling for control again into the weekend.

Ukraine/Russia/Black sea weather:

• No moisture in the short term as Ukraine is completely dry today and into the weekend, with temps normal to above through the weekend.
• A cool front will slide southward on Monday, bringing light snow to northern Ukraine and into central Russia with mostly minor amounts.
• This will also draw down colder Siberian air into the region.
• A low over the Black Sea Monday night-Tuesday will try to throw moisture into central and southern regions in Russia.
• Nothing major for the rest of next week as strong high pressure parks over central Ukraine on Thursday-Friday, bringing down another round of bitter cold air, which will then moderate by the weekend with strong south winds.
• Precipitation looks below normal for most of the FSU.