South America weather:

Brazil weather:

• Slightly drier weather unfolding in Brazil today-the weekend and any moisture will be primarily hit and miss, with no frontal-based action likely through Sunday.
• Moisture begins to develop in central and eastern parts of Brazil by Sunday afternoon, falling in Minas Gerais, through Goias, and into western Bahia, totaling .25-.75” and covering 75-80% of those areas; There won’t be as much moisture back into Matto Grosso.
• That begins to change next week through Tuesday-Thursday, as moisture begins to build back in, totaling .5-2” over Matto Grosso, through Goias, and areas through central and northern growing areas, with coverage at 75%.
• Standard hit and miss action will be the rule over the rest of next week, but southern Minas Gerais near the coast will see some moderate to heavy thunderstorms there, which will lead to a nice swath of moisture flowing north and east; one plume will go across the central growing region back through Matto Grosso, likely worth 1-2” rains Thursday-Saturday of next week; another plume goes straight north through northern Minas Gerais, eastern Goias, and Bahia, totaling 1-2” there on Thursday-Friday of next week.
• The eastern plume sits there going into next weekend through Sunday, so east and northeast Brazil will pick up a lot of moisture over the second half of next week; 1-2” Thursday-early Saturday before adding another 1-1.5” on Sunday-Monday.
• Out west in Matto Grosso, they’ll get timely moisture and see good harvesting opportunities.
• The dries areas in Brazil will be south in Matto Grosso do Sul through Parana and areas southward, where these areas won’t see much moisture at all over the next 7-14 days, but that should help harvest ramp up; the best moisture concentrations look to be in the some of the driest areas.
• Temps in Brazil look mostly normal.

 

Argentina weather:

• The pattern looks a little more active but it also has a lot more holes in coverage area.
• Things should be dry to start today but overnight tonight-tomorrow, thunderstorms fire off in northern LaPampa and southern Cordoba, with moisture totals of .25-.75” but I don’t think it’ll expand much more than that and should fall apart by midday tomorrow.
• A strong line of showers/thunderstorms will move through all corn/soybean growing areas Saturday-Sunday, with rains totaling .5-1.5” and covering 100% of all growing areas, and the heaviest rains linger a bit in Buenos Aires province at the end of the weekend.
• Strong high pressure moves in for Monday-Tuesday before the next system comes together Wednesday morning further south like La Pampa and western BA, with scattered showers and thunderstorms lifting north and east; totals will be .25-.5” and coverage will be 30%.
• Late next week, Friday-Saturday, another big system will move through with moisture totals of .5-2.5” with coverage at 90%; it’s a strong inland circulation and if it should linger into the weekend, it could put down an additional 1-3” rains in BA, Entre Rios, and southern Santa Fe.
• These are some of the areas that took very heavy rains earlier this season, so if this develops as we think it might, this could mean some bullish activity for the market as concerns will be about too much rainfall.
• A system this strong likely pulls down cooler air, so temps likely trend normal to below over the second half of next week and into the following week.

 

Ukraine/Russia/Black sea weather:

• Strong high pressure is parked over central Ukraine today, but as it begins to break down, light moisture works in from west to east, and should fall mostly as light rains, except for areas in north central Ukraine where it could be light snow.
• Moisture equivalencies will be .25-.4” likely, with coverage tomorrow-early Saturday at 75-80% of Ukraine growing areas.
• Temps continue to moderate to freezing or above over most of Ukraine and Russia’s southern growing region.
• Russia’s central region is a different story as a strong low moves in Saturday afternoon-Sunday, bringing .25-.75” moisture, with a lot of it falling as snow, although if temps surge behind the low, it could be a rain/snow mix.
• An active pattern will kick off next week with another low moving through Ukraine, bringing scattered light rain showers in the south and light snow up north and very strong winds.
• Coverage will be 40-50% of Ukraine and 50% coverage in central/southern Russia, with combined moisture totals of .25-.5”.
• Gusty winds hold through the rest of next week and cold air moves back in, with freezing temps dropping south into the Black Sea area, and temps drop below zero in northern Ukraine as well as central/southern Russia.
• The cold air is coming back in when there isn’t a lot of snow pack, which may lead to talk in the markets about winter kill concerns

Corn Belt weather:

• Strong high pressure diving south out of Canada to finish out the week and go through most of the weekend, working through western Corn Belt areas today-tomorrow, and then central-eastern locations tomorrow-Saturday.
• Strong winds kick up on the backside of the high Sunday and we were concerned about moisture falling Saturday night-Sunday, but that may be going away as the air mass is very dry with no real moisture source.
• A weak high pressure dome moves in Sunday afternoon-Monday before the big storm complex we’ve been telling you about gets going.
• It moves out of the central plains late Monday afternoon with moisture ahead of it and strong south winds.
• Rain and thunderstorms move through IL, MO, IN, KY, and OH thanks to a low near St. Louis on Sunday night.
• Another low comes out of NE and works into the Upper Midwest, so there is a gap between the two but it’s not nearly as wide on the latest model runs, but it does give significant snow and gusty winds to the Upper Midwest, especially in MN.
• The system moves east on Tuesday and the lows work to combine; rain should continue from I-80 southward through midday Tuesday and snow to the north of I-80, but with cold air rushing in, rain to the south will end as snow Tuesday night-Wednesday, with accumulations in parts of IL, IN, and OH.
• Winds could potentially reach 20-50 MPH, especially on the backside of the system, may cause some lake enhancement to the snow in the eastern Corn Belt.
• Strong high pressure comes in behind the system as it lifts northeast, so things look dry Wednesday afternoon-Friday, and strong south winds kick up behind the high going into next weekend, Feb 11-12, which may bring light snow to MI, WI, and up into Ontario.
• Low pressure coming together in CO at the end of the 10-day period may be able to tap into moisture from the Gulf coast and become a big weather producer for the Corn Belt around Feb 14-15.
• Temps over the next 10 days are normal to below as there will be several cold air incursions moving through.

 

Deep South weather:

• High pressure is slowly sinking off the Gulf coast and southeast US today, leading to topside and backside moisture popping up in AR, LA, and MS through today, totaling .25” or less and coverage will be 30%.
• Strong high pressure takes control tomorrow and holds through the weekend-into Monday, but there may some weak precipitation on Sunday in the western part of the region, including AR, LA, and eastern TX.
• A big system is coming into the region next week, getting going in the Corn Belt but it doesn’t have a cold front that hits the Deep South on Tuesday, but that changes Tuesday afternoon as several waves of strong to severe weather work through AR, western TN, MS, LA, and western AL, all thanks to frontal boundary development.
• Moderate to heavy rains come with it, bringing totals of .5-1.5” on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday, with coverage at 75-80%; areas that may get missed include most of LA, the western half of AR, and other far western areas right on the edge of the region.
• High pressure comes in behind it and brings a cool finish to the week as freezing temps dip down into southern AL and southern MS on Friday morning, but it shouldn’t go far enough south to create citrus concerns; there could be freezing temps in southern GA and extreme northern FL on Saturday morning, but it still isn’t a major story just yet.
• The high then moves offshore and south winds kick up again, moderating temps at the tail end of next weekend.
• Another system may push into the Deep South around Valentine’s Day, part of the same system that likely hits the Corn Belt.
• Temps in the Deep South will be normal to a bit below, with the coldest temps again next Friday and Saturday mornings.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Strong high pressure is in play right now, with light snow trying to start later this afternoon along the backside of the high in western NE, southwest SD, eastern WY, and northeast CO, totaling .03-.1” maximum, but if it does fall as snow it could blow around a bit in those areas.
• The high will hold into the weekend; up the backside of the high, strong south winds blow on Saturday-Sunday and moderate temps dramatically.
• A low kicks out of the central plains into NE Saturday night-Sunday, but does nothing as it has no moisture with it.
• A strong low wants to develop in southeast CO, moving into KS on Monday night-Tuesday, and its moisture falls farther east in AR, MO, and IA; a strong low moves through the northern plains with the heaviest precipitation in MN but there will also be good snowfall amounts in ND and northern SD Monday night-Tuesday.
• The rest of the plains gets nothing as the strong storm complex hammers the eastern part of the country.
• Things stay dry later Tuesday-Wednesday and another massive high settles into northeast KS by Thursday night-Friday, keeping the entire plains dry.
• Another low looks to come together around Feb 12 in northeast CO, with moisture working through the higher elevations and if it can hook up with another system farther south and grab moisture off the Gulf, it could bring moisture to the central and southern plains on Feb 13.
• Otherwise, precipitation totals look well below normal in most of the plains.

Corn Belt weather:

• High pressure in control will keep things dry for a few days, through most of Saturday.
• There are still 2 systems to pay attention to over the next 10 days; the first is a southern Corn Belt event coming through Saturday night-Sunday, with light snow stretching from the arrowhead of MN through IA and northern MO on Saturday.
• It’s not very organized as there’s no frontal boundary, just activity up the backside of the high as it moves away.
• This turns into light rain as it moves through southern MO, KY, and TN, and light snowfall in IL and IN, with moisture totals of .25” or less and snowfall liquid equivalent will be .1” or less.
• Another high pressure dome will dry things out later on Sunday-early Tuesday.
• A strong low pressure circulation comes out of the central/southern plains and lifting across the Corn Belt Tuesday-early Thursday, but the forecast now shows the activity splitting.
• The activity has a southern feature which moves across the area from I-70 southward and a northern feature from I-80 northward.
• This is what one model is showing but I actually think this could come together into one system without the split, but this will play havoc with where the precipitation really wants to fall.
• Totals will still be .5-2” across a good chunk of the Corn Belt with massive snow in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes area, but it looks like a dry slot will come across IA, MO, IL, and parts of IN.
• We’ll see how this changes going forward, but for now, this isn’t my official forecast yet as I don’t really like the split solution the model is showing currently.
• A strong system will hit the west coast of the country around February 7-8, but we’ll see if it wants to hold together as it moves east but the models say probably not.
• Strong arctic high pressure will take temps back down below normal over the second half of next week.

 

Deep South weather:

• High pressure is in control to finish out this week across the region and go into the weekend.
• A little light shower action may fall overnight tomorrow night-Friday in AL and MS over the top edge of a high pressure dome, but there won’t be much in the way of totals.
• We’ll wait till early next week for the next solid round of precipitation as showers and thunderstorms develop over AR, western TN, and northern MS Monday night-Tuesday; later on Tuesday-Wednesday, the moisture sweeps across the rest of the region.
• Overall totals will be 75% coverage with .5-1.5” likely and strong thunderstorms are a possiblity.
• As that system moves away, the rest of next week will be relatively dry starting on Thursday at midday.
• Temps will be a little cool in the region as the Deep South sees the freezing line sags into northern MS, AL, and north GA from Thursday night-Friday, but it won’t go much farther south than that.
• The extended forecast shows another frontal boundary working in through the middle of the 11-16-day forecast window but it shouldn’t be anything problematic at this point.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is in control for the most part, although there is a weak cool front sagging southward today across ND, SD, and northern NE, with light snow trying to develop in SD, the NE panhandle, and eastern WY late this afternoon-tomorrow.
• Light snow is in the forecast all the way down into northeast CO and northwest KSl, but the liquid equivalent will be a .03-.1” which means snowfall of a coating to 1”; blowing snow is possible in the NE panhandle and northeast CO.
• The action ends tomorrow afternoon and the rest of the week will be dry and that holds into the weekend.
• Temps are well below normal in the northern plains and normal to below in the central and southern plains.
• The next round of moisture gets going late in the weekend-early next week, with scattered light rain showers developing on the backside of a strong suface high in eastern OK, southeast KS, and northeast TX, with totals of .1-.2” or less.
• That action is a precursor to low pressure moving into the central plains Monday night-Tuesday; it’s got moisture with it but models disagree on how it uses that moisture.
• Currently, it looks like the best precipitation outbreak is up north as ND and SD are in line to pick up some significant snowfall, but the question mark is farther south; NE, KS, OK, and eastern CO will see moisture as rain to start followed by snow to finlsh, but the question is where the moisture gets drawn from so it’s hard to predict how much they’re looking at getting.
• Right now I think they’re looking at .25-.75” of liquid and .25” of moisture coming in the colder air behind, but there could also be a significant dry slot in the low pressure circulation if it remains as strong as what it could be.
• Coverage it a little up in the air, but right now the northern plains will see 90% coverage with moderate to heavy snows and gusty winds, and from I-90 southward, coverage is no better than 50% with some rain going over to snow; it all comes down to the track of this low and whether or not it stays as one circulation rather than splitting into two like some models are forecasting.
• That system is followed by a strong arctic high coming down across ND and SD for next Thursday-Friday, with below zero temps down into central NE and the freezing line down into central TX.

 

South America weather:

• Scattered moisture is falling over about 60% of Brazil of growing areas today-tomorrow.
• The heaviest precipitation falls in the western quarter of growing areas, including western Matto Grosso through western Matto Grosso do Sul.
• Harvest likely will slow down in those western areas as 2-3-day rain totals there could be .5-2.5” combined.
• Central and eastern growing areas are looking drier going into midweek, but things change later this week with decent action firing up Thursday and Friday afternoons in Goias through western Minas Gerais, where totals will be .25-1” of moisture, while the moisture slowly shuts off in western growing areas.
• The moisture will push farther north from Friday-Sunday, sitting just north of Matto Grosso and arcing around through Minas Gerais and into Bahia, so the drier areas of northeast Brazil may get .5-1.5” of rain off and on from Friday-Monday combined.
• The moisture starts off next week back out west Monday-Tuesday, with totals of .5-2” in Matto Grosso, MGDS, and into Sao Paulo and Parana.
• That moisture will move north and east through the rest of next week, and the pattern will give moisture to most of Brazil, with coverage at 75-80% and ten day totals of 2-3” likely.
• The rains will be spread out, so harvest should be able to progress around the moisture and planting should have decent moisture to work with going forward.
• Temps will be warmer in eastern growing areas, including Minas Gerais, eastern Goias, and up into western Bahia, but the warmer temps are expanding west a bit.
• By the middle of this week, above normal overnight lows are possible all the way through Matto Grosso, but they won’t combine with above normal daytime highs, which remain at normal to slightly above normal.
• This weekend through early next week, temps go normal to slightly above in central Brazil, including Matto Grosso into MGDS; meanwhile, northeast areas that have been the driest recently before finally picking up more rain, will see temps turn cooler, normal to below normal for the first half of next week in Bahia, Minas Gerais, and northeast Goias.
• High pressure is still in control over Argentina this morning with strong winds circulating around its backside.
• The next round of rain moves in over Buenos Aires province tonight-tomorrow, with totals of .25-.75” before moving northward, where the rest of Argentina growing areas likely see those same totals as the heavier precipitation pushes farther east into Uruguay and southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul.
• Dry weather will finish the week, late Thursday-early Friday, as a front tries to work into western Argentina Friday-Saturday but it doesn’t look like it holds together.
• If it doesn’t hold together, showers will likely re-start across the old frontal boundary over the weekend, with rain totals of .5-1.25” with 80% coverage across the country.
• One model is trying to show a strong circulation developing over BA on Sunday afternoon-Monday, which could bump rain totals in BA closer to 2” of rain.
• Things clear out early next week, Monday-Wednesday, with nice dry down weather.
• Strong storms stay south of key growing areas on Wednesday.
• Overall, temps look near normal, with below normal a possibility over a few days because of strong circulations this weekend into early next week. Temps could be a little above normal early this week with some of the drier weather.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea/Russia weather:

• That strong and cold high pressure dome continues to sit over the region through tomorrow as it parks over northeast Ukraine and stretches through central Russia.
• We’re also seeing strong gusty winds and I think that’s a bigger story as they don’t likely ease up until Thursday.
• Temps gradually ease from Thursday-Saturday, gradually getting above the freezing mark, which means any precipitation coming across eastern Ukraine as well as central/northern Russia, could actually be a mix of rain/snow, and totals will be .25-.5” liquid equivalent and coverage will be no more than 30% combined over eastern Ukraine and central/southern Russia.
• Another front coming together behind that might bring some precipitation from Sunday-early Monday, totaling a few hundredths at best.
• Another cold air high tries to nose back in from central Russia after that, from Monday-Wednesday, with another cold air push.
• If it does rain over the forecast, decreasing the snowpack again, some concerns about winterkill will get talked about starting late this week-into the weekend.
• At this point, I don’t believe it, but if these things stack up too much more, there could be a story over the next 7-10 days.