South America weather:

• Showers are working through Brazil this weekend, with overall totals of 1-2.5”, stretching from Matto Grosso through Goias and covering most of south/southeast Brazil with coverage at 80% of key crop areas.
• Next week, will feature more of a hit and miss pattern, with moisture in Matto Grosso on Monday-Tuesday.
• Tuesday afternoon-Friday, things begin to dry out from Goias eastward through Bahia, Minas Gerais, into Sao Paulo and Parana.
• It doesn’t mean there won’t be any rains, with the possibility of .5-1” or less in those areas over the week, with coverage at about 60%.
• Lighter precipitation totals out west Tuesday-Friday, with Matto Grosso picking up .5-1.5” out there with 80% coverage.
• Closer to next weekend, they’ll see standard hit and miss action, with decent rains that really shouldn’t slow down harvest or planting activity in most areas.
• Temps in Brazil are normal to slightly above, with the warmest air over the drier areas in the northeast.
• Argentina is in the midst of a fairly dry push as strong high pressure sits over Buenos Aires province and will keep the region dry from today-early next week.
• The week starts dry on Monday-Tuesday before showers come together Tuesday night-Wednesday, bringing .5-.75” totals to 60% of Argentina, with the focus to the south in BA, southern Entre Rios, and Cordoba.
• The front dissipates as it lifts north, so totals will be .25” or less in northern Argentina growing areas.
• Days 6-10 of the forecast period show a little moisture out west but it’s basically sprinkles, so I like a mostly dry period from late Thursday-Sunday out toward the end of the ten-day period.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly below.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Temps in the region are trying to move back closer to normal over the weekend into early next week.
• A strong surface high sits over the region from Saturday-Tuesday, with moisture trying to develop on the backside of the high on Tuesday night-Wednesday, possibly bringing light snows to central Ukraine.
• Above normal temps are pushing into western Ukraine while very cold air continues to hold over central and southern Russia.
• As the high sits over the region for the next 10 days, there’s a likelihood of more below normal temps than above.
• The key is no precipitation for the most part, just a few sprinkles here and there is all they’ll see.

 

Corn Belt weather:

• Gusty wind conditions in the eastern Corn Belt will blow for the next couple of days as strong low pressure tries to leave the northeast US, with wrap around wind conditions all the way back into the Great Lakes region.
• The winds may trigger some lake enhanced snow action over the Great Lakes, including MI, OH, and northern IN, but the rest of the Corn Belt looks dry with high pressure in control.
• A strong low moves out of Canada and across the Great Lakes Monday-Tuesday, with the track not significant for most growing areas but they will see lake enhanced snows again across WI, MN, MI, and northeast OH.
• A strong high pressure dome moves in for the rest of next week and takes control, keeping the Corn Belt dry.
• The next significant threat of precipitation moves in late next week, Friday night-Saturday, as low pressure develops in MO and circulation also develops along the backside of high pressure in the Deep South.
• This brings light rains over MO, southern IL, southern IN, and into KY, but there may be some snow along the northern edge of the precipitation, and this activity will continue to rotate through these areas Saturday-Sunday.
• The moisture moving up the backside of the high pressure dome means it really can’t move anywhere, which means good moisture for the southern half of the Corn Belt through the entire weekend.
• The action finally moves out by Sunday afternoon, with rainfall totals of .25-.75” from I-70 southward, but north of I-70 may only see .25” in IN and OH, but that’s it.
• Strong high pressure moves in behind that circulation and should keep things dry into the start of the following week.
• The extended forecast shows two more systems moving through, but models don’t agree on whether there’s cold air or warm air at the start; I see the first system having a more northern push, coming across SD and NE, into IA, MN, and WI, but the second system wants to hook down into the four corners region and may provide a more classic winter storm system when it gets to the Corn Belt if it has cold air with it.

 

Deep South weather:

• High pressure is in control over the region this weekend and most of this upcoming week, so there isn’t any serious precipitation threats through at least next Thursday.
• As the high works east, it’ll be sitting over the southeast coast by next Friday, including NC and SC, moisture will then start to move up the backside coming off the Gulf of Mexico, moving into eastern OK, east TX, LA, and AR.
• The moisture will be light to start on Friday, but as the day goes on, more circulation begins to take hold, so by Saturday-Sunday, a plume of moisture takes hold in the western half of the region.
• Moisture in the western half of the Deep South will be .25-.75” over the weekend, Saturday-Sunday, with 70% coverage, but it doesn’t really hit the eastern part of the region until Sunday night-Monday.
• The moisture will increase in intensity as it moves east, so GA, NC, SC, and AL could get .5-1” totals from Sunday night-Monday.
• Another strong high pressure area moves in behind it and gives the region a dry period again.
• In the extended forecast, it looks like the two big systems that move through the country in early February will focus a little farther north, but the system on February 11-12 may drag across eastern OK, east TX, and into AR, but we aren’t sure yet if it has enough southern push to affect the rest of the Deep South.

 

Great Plains weather:

• High pressure is in control today, parking over NE and they see strong northwest winds across the plains pulling down more cool air out of Canada.
• High pressure holds through the weekend into early next week, but as one high moves out, winds will shift south by midweek before another high moves in, and temps will ebb and flow with the wind direction change.
• Overall, temps should be normal to slightly above as there won’t be a massive cold air outbreak but temps also won’t be as pleasant as they’ve been recently.
• The next round of precipitation on Saturday may be an offshoot of action east in the Corn Belt and Deep South, with some precipitation reaching southeast KS and northeast OK.
• Low pressure also moves into CO by the middle of next weekend, bringing light rain and/or snow into Sunday with moisture equivalent to .2” or less, but it is moisture for NE, KS, eastern CO, and northern OK.
• Another strong high follows that into the region and parks over NE and SD for Sunday night-Monday of the following week.
• It’ll be dry a couple of days before the next weather system kicks out of ID and WY on February 8-9, but a stronger low hooks down into the Four Corners region on February 10-11, bringing a lot of rain with it and potentially a lot of snow if cold air comes in with it.

Lake enhanced snow continued into the overnight last night and may hold over extreme northern areas through the first part of this morning. However, we will see improving weather through the day, even though we find ourselves in a much colder air mass over the next few days. Temps will still remain normal to slightly above normal over most of the state. We should see sunshine in the southern half of the state at least today, and some sunny breaks up north too. The big hurdle here will be clouds off and on through the weekend.

We continue to look for a mostly dry weather pattern working in here through Friday of this coming week. Clouds will be part of the equation off and on through the weekend, and through the first half of next week. The best chance of precipitation in this next 7 day period will be overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday, as we see a nice low pass by over the great lakes, and a bit of that moisture and a weak trough may slip into northern Indiana. WE think the chances of anything significant are minor…but will want to keep an eye out for a few snow showers up north.

Later in the week next week, we see temps moderate a bit, as south wind flow develops. This will be ahead of our next weather system that moves in over next weekend. Rains spread over the state for Saturday through Sunday, with moisture totals in the .2-.4” range. Coverage looks to be around 60%.

Behind that, in the extended period, we still look for at least 2 waves coming through, maybe more. The key will be cold air…and we think there is a better chance of cold air coming in. Look for liquid precipitation equivalent of .25-.75” out of a system for the 8^th into the 9^th, and then up to half an inch again for the 11^th into the 12^th. Timing is up in the air, but we are seeing more models agreeing on the cold air push that comes in from the 11^th through the 21^st, so any active pattern at mid-month would have the potential to bring more snow.

South America weather:

• Showers are working through Brazil in the short term, from today through the weekend, with totals of 1-2.5”, stretching from Matto Grosso through Goias and through most of south/southeast Brazil, and coverage will be 80% of key crop areas.
• Next week, the action gets more hit and miss, with moisture in Matto Grosso on Monday-Tuesday.
• A drier trend is developing through the rest of next week, Tuesday afternoon-Friday, from Goias eastward through Bahia, Minas Gerais, into Sao Paulo and Parana.
• It doesn’t mean there won’t be any rains, with the possibility of .5-1” or less in those areas over the week, with coverage at about 60%.
• Lighter precipitation totals out west Tuesday-Friday, with Matto Grosso picking up .5-1.5” out there with 80% coverage.
• Closer to next weekend, they’ll see standard hit and miss action, so good rains that shouldn’t slow any kind of harvest progress or planting as well.
• Temps in Brazil are normal to slightly above, with the warmest air over the drier areas in the northeast.
• Argentina is in the midst of a fairly dry push as strong high pressure sits over Buenos Aires province and will keep the region dry from today-early next week.
• Monday-Tuesday should be dry next week before showers come together Tuesday night-Wednesday, bringing .5-.75” totals to 60% of Argentina, with the focus to the south in BA, southern Entre Rios, and Cordoba.
• As the front lifts further north it dissipates, so totals will be .25” or less in northern Argentina growing areas.
• Days 6-10 of the forecast period show a little moisture out west but it’s basically sprinkles, so I like a mostly dry period from late Thursday-Sunday out toward the end of the ten day period.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly below.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Strong gusty winds continue to howl over the area and temps are pushing a bit below normal for the rest of this week.
• As they go through the weekend into early next week, temps get back closer to normal.
• A strong surface high sits over the region from Saturday-Tuesday, with moisture trying to develop on the backside of the high on Tuesday night-Wednesday, possibly bringing light snows to central Ukraine.
• Very cold air continues to hold over central and southern Russia while above normal temps push into western Ukraine.
• As the high sits over the region for the next 10 days, there’s a likelihood of more below normal temps than above.
• The key is no precipitation for the most part, just a few sprinkles here and there is all they’ll see.