Corn Belt weather:

• A strong low pressure area will move out of the central plains and into the western Corn Belt later this afternoon, bringing snow into western IA and southern MN, moving across WI, northern IL, and into the Great Lakes region tonight-Thursday.
• Snows will be heaviest across IA, southern MN, southern WI, and northern IL, where the totals could be 3-6” in spots, with rain mixing with snow along the southern edges of those areas.
• The system moves northeast over the Great Lakes region and could bring some snow over northern IN and northwest OH Wednesday night-Thursday, but accumulations will be minor, maybe a coating up to 1” maximum.
• Strong north winds on the backside of the low will draw down cooler air for a couple of days but it won’t be an arctic blast; those winds will stick around through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
• High pressure will dominate from this weekend through next week; one strong surface high holds Sunday night-Monday before another moves through after that.
• In between the two high pressure areas, a strong low pressure areas moves across Canada from Monday night-Wednesday, probably hitting the New England area more so than the Corn Belt but will likely increase winds over the Belt by the middle of next week.
• After the next 24-48 hours, we are shifting into a drier forecast period.

 

Deep South weather:

• A cool front stretching from low pressure in the Corn Belt may try to work through the Deep South, triggering a few widely scattered showers starting tomorrow night-Thursday, with no more than a few hundredths to .25” maximum with 60% coverage.
• Behind it, high pressure takes control going into the weekend.
• Next week, moisture will stay just off the Gulf coast, possibly hitting the FL peninsula, but that’s it because high pressure sits of the central part of the region Monday-Wednesday.
• Some rain and thunderstorm action is possible in south TX at midweek but it doesn’t look to rotate up into the region, so the region is in for an 8-9 day dry stretch after the front moves through tomorrow-Thursday.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above.
• Most of the action showing up in the extended forecast seems to stay farther north or just offshore to the south in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Snow is moving across the central plains in the short term today-tomorrow, with the hardest hit areas including NE, where they could see 3-6” there; a coating to 1” possible in northeast CO; some snow could also hit northwest KS; 2-5” are possible in southern SD.
• Snow showers may linger in NE and southeast SD tomorrow as the system moves to the northeast, but the rest of the plains clears out and is on the way to a nice pattern for the rest of the week.
• Strong northwest winds will bring down temps a bit on Thursday-Friday but nothing major.
• High pressure is then in play through the weekend and all of next week and there isn’t any significant precipiation through the end of this week and all of next across the plains.
• Not seeing a lot in the extended forecast window either; maybe some precipitation moving across the northern plains around February 5-6, with light snows from the Canadian border down through NE.
• A better chance of more significant precipitation moves in February 8-9, bringing significant snow or a rain/snow mix into SD, NE, and KS.

A damp feel again today over the state, even though we likely will not see significant moisture in over the state. Clouds hold firm in many areas, but we can see slightly better chances of breaks in those clouds over southwestern and western Indiana as the day wears on. Temps remain above normal today.

Tomorrow we start to see a fairly strong circulation passing by to the north and west of the state, over WI, northern IL and MI. this will bring clouds down into the state again, and could trigger some spits, sprinkles and drizzle over the northern third to northern quarter of the state. Totals will be nothing more than a few hundredths, but may be noticeable in those areas. Nothing expected south, and in fact we may see some sun over the southern half of the state. Lingering moisture on the backside of the circulation for Thursday may trigger some sloppy wet snowflakes over the northern half of the state, but nothing that amounts to any serious accumulation. However, the chances of snow for Thursday are a little better than we were seeing 24 hours ago. Coverage will be about 30% of the state, skewed north. The map above shows one model’s potential snow accumulations for Thursday through Friday morning. This is probably just a little bit overdone on state wide coverage, but the lake enhancement areas are about right.

Dry weather comes in for Friday and holds all the way through next week. However, we likely will have clouds and a somewhat dreary feel for the start of that period Friday, and perhaps into Saturday. Temps remain normal to above normal, and eventually high pressure will dominate from the second half of the weekend through next week.

The extended period is trending colder, although some models are reluctant to swing fully that way. However, the expectation is that we see temps back to normal and below normal levels once we get past the weekend of the 4^th and 5^th. WE do not see any significant frontal passages in there, at least in regards to precipitation. Minor light snows can come with a weak wave for the 5^th and then we see a stronger system trying to develop out of that for the 6^th into the 7^th. However, tracks range from staying well south and east of the area to making a direct hit. So, until we get some better consensus…we are going to run our forecast toward the drier side, thinking this upcoming drier push will hold as the cold air arrives, and keeps action just outside of our region. But…there is plenty of wiggle room here, and we think ultimately, the pattern could swing back to a very active one as we get closer to mid-February.

 

 

 

South America weather:

• Scattered moisture is moving over Brazil to start the week, especially in the western half of the country.
• Rain totals will be .25-1.5” today in Matto Grosso, down through Matto Grosso do Sul, into Parana and Sao Paulo.
• The scattered hit and miss action will continue through Wednesday night, possibly adding another .25-.5” of moisture with 80% coverage through the period.
• A much more organized frontal boundary complex will come together Thursday-Friday, from Matto Grosso through western Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Parana, with 1-2” rains across Matto Grosso and Goias on Thursday-Friday.
• The moisture tries to sag west and south, moving away from key crop areas by the end of the week and weekend, holding near the southern border of Matto Grosso and through MGDS over the weekend.
• It might be a challenge as harvest is underway in Matto Grosso, but harvest really hasn’t started yet in other areas.
• From late Sunday night-Thursday, the pattern is turning drier with very little precipitation falling in Brazil, which should get harvest up and running in all areas.
• Sunday night-Thursday night won’t see much more than .5” or less over 30% of Brazil.
• Temps should be mostly near normal in Brazil, but they will be above normal in the drier areas of Brazil up in the northeast, including Bahia and northern Minas Gerais.
• The rest of Brazil will be mostly normal to slightly below during daytime hours and normal to slightly above in the nighttime hours.
• In Argentina, things are transitioning into a somewhat drier pattern; a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are trying to move through Buenos Aires province this morning, worth .5-1” in spots, but should dissipate quickly.
• A better front develops through the day tomorrow, with minor showers starting in Cordoba, northern La Pampa, and BA, lifting north and east with .25-.3” over 40% of growing areas.
• Strong high pressure is over BA on Thursday-Friday this week, keeping the area dry through the weekend, and the next chance of precipitation holds off until next week.
• Showers hit eastern BA next Tuesday morning but then head out over the ocean.
• There will be some offshoot showers in Entre Rios, Santa Fe, and into Chaco from Tuesday night-Wednesday of next week, with totals of .25-.5” and coverage at 60% of Argentina’s growing areas from Wednesday night-Thursday.
• Another strong high pressure dome moves in late next week and into the following week, so all the wetness in Argentina should go away quickly.
• Temps in Argentina should be normal to slightly above, but it shouldn’t be runaway heat.
• Cooler air does sneak into the south later this week, maybe 6-8 degrees below normal, before warmer air builds back in next week.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region

• Gusty winds will be the story through a good chunk of this week.
• A massive high pressure dome will bring down some cooler air this week, with single digit temps in the overnight and near freezing during the day.
• There isn’t a lot of precipitation ahead, but there will be a strong circulation coming into the heart of Russia tomorrow night-Wednesday, bringing some light snow to Russia’s central region, possibly a coating to 2”.
• There won’t be a lot of precipitation through the rest of the region over the next ten days, so it’s definitely a drier push.
• Temps look normal to slightly above, but there will be some roller coaster to upcoming temps.
• Up and down temps can be hard on crops but overall condition still looks 80% good to excellent.

Corn Belt weather:

• The Corn Belt is sandwiched between strong low pressure moving east and another strong low forming out west.
• One low is moving across the mid-Atlantic states and up the east coast, dragging moisture through the eastern Belt, with OH getting off and on showers today.
• Another strong low is coming together in NE through tomorrow, putting down snow in NE, SD, IA, and southern MN tomorrow night-Wednesday, with totals of 2-6” in parts of northern IA and southern MN through southern WI, but the action dissipates quickly.
• The low moves into MI by Wednesday and switches to light rain, with very little action south of I-80 in IL, IN, and OH.
• Coverage will be 40-50% of the Corn Belt.
• After that, high pressure works into the Corn Belt as strong north winds work in on the backside of the circulation on Thursday.
• The north winds will take temps back down, but it’s only closer to normal, with the winds likely continuing Friday-Saturday.
• Their may be some lake effect snow over the Great Lakes on Sunday, but high pressure will otherwise be in control, dominating Monday-Tuesday.
• Weak low pressure moves over the Upper Midwest on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday, possibly triggering light snows in WI, MN, and MI, but there isn’t a lot of moisture to work with, and not much falling south of I-80 again.
• Strong high pressure is back in control Wednesday-Friday, so overall, the pattern looks fairly dry after the one system moves out this week.
• The 11-16 day forecast still finds models sharply disagreeing, with the GFS model actually disagreeing with itself too.
• Both models are agreeing that there won’t be a lot of big-time weather events until early February, so there won’t be much in the way of precipitation as the month turns.

 

Deep South weather:

• A strong low pressure circulation is working out of the region and up the east coast, with the remnants of some very heavy weekend rains working through NC and SC, and they should end this afternoon.
• The pattern will become more tranquil, with sunshine breaking out in the western part of the region.
• Systems will continue to pass by to the north over the rest of the week, so there should be nothing but sunshine Tuesday-Thursday.
• The only exception will be a minor trough that works through the eastern half of the region Wednesday night-early Thursday, which could be worth a few scattered showers, likely totaling .2” or less and coverage will be 30-40% maximum.
• High pressure is dominant from Friday-Monday, and there won’t be any inclement weather next week, so it may mean roughly 8 days or more of dry weather in the South; into early February, I see nothing working its way across the western part of the country, which may mean a long-term drying pattern across the region.
• Temps in the Deep South should mostly be near normal; there may be a night or two of 32-degree temps in the northern half of the Deep South, but it shouldn’t be much to worry about.

 

Great Plains weather:

• The great plains will deal with a strong low pressure area coming out of the central Rockies later today-tonight, with that low moving over northeast CO, ending up in southern NE and northern KS by tomorrow.
• Most of the precipitation will fall on the top and backside of the circulation, so light snows will develop in NE, southern SD, the NE panhandle, southeast WY, and northeast CO, from overnight tonight-Wednesday.
• The best snow accumulation will be in NE and southern SD, with a maximum of 3-6” possible, with a coating-2” possible in northeast CO; southeast WY could see 1-2” there; flurries in northwest KS; there won’t be much precipitation further south than that.
• This action works northeast and exits in the plains by Wednesday afternoon, with lingering wraparound snows in NE and SD through Wednesday.
• The plains will transition into a fairly dry period going forward from there as high pressure moves in Thursday and keeps control through Sunday.
• There will be a weak upper level disturbance trying to move over the northern plains Monday afternoon-Tuesday, bringing light snows to ND and SD, but the rest of the plains are dry, sunny, and pleasant from midweek this week-all of next week.
• Strong gusty winds might be the only weather story in the plains next week as they switch to the north, bringing in cooler temps getting back closer to normal, but it won’t be a major below-normal push.
• The thing that’ll get cold is the wind chill over the middle section of the country.
• No major weather systems will be developing at the end of the ten-day period out west, which means the dry period should continue at the end of next week and into the following week.