Clouds will be a bigger player in the forecast today, but generally speaking, we see no major weather problems in the short term. In fact, we continue to see most of the bigger precipitation outbreaks this week missing the state, mostly to the south and east. Today we have strong low pressure following that track. As a result, we expect good wrap around cloud cover to be in over the state through the day today, but not much precipitation. Go east into OH around midday and this afternoon and you will run into a few tenths up to half an inch, but in Indiana, we see very little. WE won’t rule out a few spits and sprinkles from midday through afternoon in east central and northeast parts of the state, but coverage will be limited to 20%-30%. The rest of the state is just cloudy. The map above is a snapshot of the region around noon today.

Tomorrow will be mostly dry. Clouds may be difficult to break up in some spots, but we will see some sun. Our next little wave rips through the great lakes for Wednesday, and this may be enough to bring some light moisture in overhead for the northern third of the state. Some of this may try and spread southward later Wednesday night into Thursday. Still, moisture totals are minor, a few hundredths to a tenth or two for Wednesday, and colder air may bring sloppy wet snowflakes overnight Wednesday night in spots. Coverage will be limited to the northern third of the state Wednesday, and the northern half of the state by Thursday midday. Action leaves very quickly, and will not amount to anything serious.

Drying out Friday through the weekend and early next week. The biggest hiccup will be clouds…as they may not be able to dissipate as quickly, with cooler air coming in. However, we truly see temps only back closer to normal over the weekend and next week, not significantly below. Models suggest winds ramping up next week around a strong circulation passing by to the north.

In the extended period, models still are far apart on the pattern. One model suggests warmer than normal air with a strong ridge in play, the other cooler, although not cold. Strong fronts will not be seen in the 11-15 day window as we see it right now.

The main key this morning is the fact that our forecast is not overly active as we go forward through the end of the month. Temps will pull back, but notice that we see far less precipitation than we picked up over the previous 2 weeks. This will allow for water levels to recede, even though we are cooling off. Moisture totals will be below normal from now through early February over the Hoosier state.

South America weather:

• A line of moisture that started yesterday will continue from Matto Grosso down through southeast Brazil through the weekend; moisture totals from now-late Sunday at 1-2.5” and 80% coverage of most of Brazil crop areas.
• Some of the area that’s missed out is the drier areas of the northeast part of the country.
• Nice hit and miss, heat-based moisture develops next week, Monday-Wednesday.
• From mid to late next week, a front brings a big cluster of action will through almost all Brazil crop areas, with heavy rains just west of Matto Grosso late next week, and even north/northeast Brazil areas are going to get some relief from dry weather.
• Combined totals will be another 1-3” through the second half of next week, which means precipitation totals will be near normal through the upcoming 10-day forecast window.
• Good harvest windows are ahead as temps will be normal to slightly above, with most of the popup action only covering about 30% on any given day.
• Combines were rolling heavy in Matto Grosso yesterday and expect to see that through the weekend.
• Harvest possibly gets started this weekend in Goias and Minas Gerais, as well as Matto Grosso do Sul.
• Continued harvest windows will combine with rains that will aid continued crop growth and development.
• Argentina looks to be transitioning into a drier forecast pattern after seeing some heavy rains fall in certain areas of the country.
• High pressure is moving in to dominate all of the country as a whole; a few scattered showers in Buenos Aires province tonight-early tomorrow, totaling .25” or less and coverage of 30% at best.
• There may be a few showers just south of BA tomorrow night, but there won’t be anything that sweeps through all Argentina growing areas.
• Scattered showers will kick off next week in the extreme northern quarter of the region on Monday afternoon but won’t hit a lot of key crop areas.
• A round of thunderstorms moves through BA Monday night-Tuesday, but the rest of the central part of the country stays dry.
• High pressure is back in by next Wednesday, holding through the following weekend, with the areas hit hardest by rains over the last ten days picking up next to nothing over the next 7-10 days.
• Temps will continue to be normal to slightly below in the short term, but the high pressure areas at the end of the 10-day period will bring temps to normal to slightly above.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Moderating temps continue with 32 degrees or higher over Ukraine and central/southern Russia.
• No major cold air incursions are expected, with not much precipitation expected either; a little light rain/snow tonight-tomorrow morning in central Russia will total .15” or less.
• Ukraine won’t see much precipitation through the weekend but the region does see gusty winds from Sunday night-Monday; shouldn’t be a big deal but wheat typically doesn’t like windy/dry conditions.
• Monday-Tuesday will see another shot of moisture totaling .03” but it’s still some moisture.
• Don’t see much cold air in play as south winds will keep the region warmer next week, so temps will be above normal and precipitation will be below normal.
• Next Wednesday-Thursday, we see a more active pattern starting to develop with a couple waves of moisture coming through.
• They’ll be worth .25-.5” with coverage at 60-70% of central/southern Ukraine, but the second system next week probably does open the door to some subzero temps dropping down out of northern Russia, working into eastern Ukraine and central Russia.
• Precipitation in the southern region combined with cold air might mean some snow cover redeveloping.
• If it doesn’t redevelop, temps below zero next weekend could trigger some talk of winter-kill in the region. I’m not sure it’ll be warranted just yet but it does get colder moving from January to February.

Corn Belt weather:

• Rain is moving out of the eastern Corn Belt and should be all but gone by noon, leaving behind .25-.75” of moisture combined over IN, OH, and MI.
• Weak low pressure doesn’t completely go away as we have a low that moves through the Upper Midwest tonight-tomorrow, including WI, southern MN, and IA, bringing light rains/sloppy wet snow by tomorrow morning.
• Another area of low pressure tries to work into the Upper Midwest on Sunday afternoon.
• A powerful low in the Deep South starts to throw moisture into the MO valley by the end of the weekend/early next week, working its way into southern IL, southern IN, and the rest of the eastern Corn Belt, with overall coverage at 30%, including the boot heel of MO, extreme southern IL, IN, OH, and MI.
• By the middle of next week, Wednesday-Thursday, low pressure moves out of the central plains and into the western Corn Belt, bringing a fairly significant swath of snow to IA, southern MN, WI, and northern IL, starting on Tuesday night-Thursday.
• Snow totals could be 3-6” in southern MN and northwest IA, but temps could also be warm enough to trigger some rain too, and the track of this low brings precipitation to 50% of the Corn Belt; it will miss the southern and eastern sections that picked up rain earlier in the week.
• Strong north winds move in on the backside of that system for Thursday-Friday, drawing down some colder air, putting temps back closer to where they should be but not necessarily below normal.
• Temps do stay above normal for most of the rest of this month, but it is January so that’s still going to be cool.
• Through the rest of the 10-day period, there won’t be a lot of major precipitation over most Corn Belt areas from Thursday-Sunday.
• Going into the week after next weekend, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of disturbed weather over the western part of the country, so it’s possible the weather will move into a calmer and more tranquil period.
• There is a large arctic high developing up in Canada for the first time in a while and if it does break loose and move south, that would be a massive cold air blast; I’m not ready to say it’s going to yet, but it is the first time in about 10-14 days we’ve seen a strong high cooling up north.

 

Deep South weather:

• A strong frontal complex is working through the eastern half of the region this morning, with heavy rains still possible in NC, SC, and GA, but it should be gone by midday.
• Another significant swath of rain and thunderstorms develops around two low pressure areas on Saturday-Sunday, with continued rotation on Monday-Tuesday.
• It’ll be a massive circulation, with rain totals of 1-3” over the 3-4-day period with 80% coverage in the region; remember, on any given day there will be some significant holes in coverage area.
• For example, Saturday night-Sunday, places like LA, southern MS, and east TX, won’t be quite as active while they see strong thunderstorms in other locations; the heaviest rains might fall in NC and SC from Monday-Tuesday.
• Very gusty winds of 20-40 mph will be with this system too.
• Around midweek, a system passes by to the north but the Deep South will miss out, with sunshine and blue skies the rule from Tuesday-Thursday.
• A weak front on Thursday afternoon may trigger a few scattered showers in NC, SC, and GA.
• The rest of the week and weekend should be dry with high pressure in control, expanding from TX into the rest of the region; even if it doesn’t expand all the way, there will be enough high pressure to keep the area dry from next Friday-Tuesday of the following week.
• Temps will be cool but not exceptionally cold.

 

Great Plains weather:

• There isn’t a lot happening today but low pressure will be something to watch in the plains
• There could be a few sprinkles in parts of NE, KS, and SD this afternoon because of a weak low this afternoon.
• Several waves of energy move across the plains over the weekend, with the first one moving over the southern plains on Saturday-Sunday, bringing scattered showers to OK and TX with coverage at 25-40% and moisture totals of a quarter to one-third of an inch or less.
• Another area of low pressure moves out of the Four Corners region early next week, creating a big batch of precipitation in the central Rockies and into the central plains, but there won’t be a large-scale moisture source from the Gulf of Mexico, which means there will be a lot of moisture on top/backside of low moving through NE and SD, but not much to the south side of the low.
• There won’t be a lot of precipitation in southern KS, OK, or TX.
• Snows early next week look like 3-6” or better in NE and southern SD; a coating to 3” possible in northeast CO and some in northwest KS; these totals are dependent on the track of the low so these are just working numbers right now.
• Other than sprinkles this weekend, we don’t see a lot of precipitation in the northern plains.
• After the midweek system moves out, we see dry high pressure moving in Thursday and holding through Monday of the following week.
• Keep an eye on that arctic high in Manitoba as it still could make its way northern ND next Tuesday-Wednesday if things go just right.

Rain this morning will be moving out by midday. However, we still see a large swath of clouds over the state through the afternoon and into tomorrow. Rain totals through midday should still end up in that .25”-.75” range, with coverage at 80% of the state. Rains hold on the longest today over north central and northeast Indiana.

Temps remain above normal through the weekend and next week. With the clouds in here, we can’t rule out a few spits, sprinkles or even an odd shower or two through the weekend. Coverage tomorrow will be less than 30%. However, from later Sunday through Monday and early Tuesday, coverage will end up being closer to 60%. Moisture does not look overly large, but we can see a few hundredths to a few tenths, depending on where you are at.

From late Tuesday through Wednesday, we see a much better organized front sweeping through. This will bring rains from .25”-.4” over about 60% of the state in that period, with the most concentrated moisture in over the northern half of the state.

Behind that front, cooler air comes in, but nothing that is overly cold just yet. In fact, we keep temperatures closer to normal to finish next week, but really do not go below normal.

Overall, the simple way to look at the forecast this morning is that it is not as wet overall (in terms of total precipitation) as we were seeing a few days back, but it is wetter in its feel…with chances of light moisture and an overall damp outlook most of the upcoming week. We also feel that this cloudy, damp pattern also keeps a lid on temps. Some forecasts are calling for highs to really rip to the upside over the coming few days…We are not quite as bullish in our warmth. Yes, temps are well above normal, feeling more like November than January…but we are not breaking out the shorts just yet. YET! (Never say never.)