Warm air continues to surge north across the state today. Temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees above normal, fueled by strong south winds averaging 15-30 mph. However, clouds will be on the increase today, as we get closer to moisture from our approaching frontal boundary. That moisture should hold off in most places until tomorrow.

Significant rains are here for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday we have combined rain totals of .5”-2” with coverage at 90% of the state. To get into the upper part of the range, you will need to have a few stronger thunderstorms, but there is a fairly good strong to severe weather threat for tomorrow afternoon and evening, along with mid to late morning on Sunday. Rains will come and go tomorrow, and we expect some significant holes in the coverage to be seen through mid-afternoon. But, then things fill in a lot more, the closer we get to the cold front itself. Behind the front, significantly colder air blasts in Sunday afternoon and evening. In fact, we expect lingering moisture to change over to and end as some sloppy wet snow Sunday night, and we can’t rule out on and off wet snow for Monday. STrong northwest winds will be at 15-30 mph overnight Sunday night and Monday, and temps will be back to 10-12 degrees below normal at least, perhaps 15 degrees below normal in spots. The map above shows total precipitation through Monday morning.

While clouds and cold air dominate Monday, we should see better chances for sunshine Tuesday, but it stays cool.

The cool air holds through most of the rest of the week. AT midweek on Wednesday we have a light rain back in the forecast, with showers over northern Indiana that produce up to .25” of liquid. We do expect rain, not snow from this event. South of I-70, we see nothing, and may even see some sunshine. We are dry to finish the week.

At the end of the 10 day period, we have our next front arriving for the 22^nd with rains of half to 1.25” For the extended 11-16 day window, we have 2 more systems, one on the 25^th with .25”-1” rains, and finally, a strong low coming out of the plains for the 28^th with .5”- 1” rains. Coverage from all three systems will be around 70% to 80% of the state. This forecast, as it currently sits, continues to have not quite enough dryness in-between systems to see significant field work through the end of April.

 

The forecast pattern is unfolding as we have expected so far. In fact, temps were a little warmer yesterday than we had thought possible…but who are we to argue. We see the best warming today, tomorrow and Saturday on strong south flow and gusty winds.

Low pressure moved into the great lakes region last night, and is exiting to the east today across southern Ontario. This will trigger some light rains for a few hours this morning before giving way to better sunshine potential and a warm afternoon.  Rain totals will end up ranging from .05”-.25” from US 30 northward before ending today, while we can see a few hundredths to a tenth from US 30 down to about SR 26. Winds pick up this afternoon and stay strong through tomorrow. Clouds will move in at times this afternoon through tomorrow as well, and they really begin to increase tomorrow afternoon ahead of our next front.

Significant rains start Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. The rain continues through Sunday. We are leaving rain totals alone at half to 2 inches over 90% of the state. The upper end of the range will come from stronger thunderstorms, and the best chance of those will be Saturday afternoon and evening, followed by another threat Sunday midday. Colder air is still slated to wrap in behind the front starting Sunday afternoon.  Winds turn NW at 15-30 mph, and our late spring weather will change back to late winter in a hurry.

Clouds and cold air dominate Monday. In fact, we can see some sprinkles and flurries through the day. It will be a cloudy, gray, damp day to start off the following week.

Cold temps dig in for most of the rest of the week. We will be back to temperatures that average 10-15 degrees below normal, powered by NW winds. This will keep clouds coming at us out of the great lakes. Tuesday should be dry, but Wednesday we have a minor batch of moisture moving through that can bring up to .25” of rain. This will affect mostly the northern half of the state, from I-70 northward, and will only last a few hours. We are dry to finish the week.

The extended forecast window has 2 fronts moving through, and a third set to hit just before the turn of the month. A front has resurfaced around the 22^nd into the 23^rd with half to 1.25” rain potential. Then the second front moves through for the 25^th with .25”-1” rains. Finally, a strong low coming out of the plains likely brings moisture in for the 28^th with .3”-.8” rains. All three systems have a chance at hitting 70% of the state. Long term dry windows do not seem likely to develop, the way things look this morning.

 

Our forecast is largely unchanged this morning. Today and tomorrow look decent – cold, but with more sunshine. While we can rule out a flurry or two up north this morning, we generally are looking at several dry days in a row. Cold air is still dominant today and tomorrow. Temps will be a little warmer than yesterday, but we will still be a good 10 degrees below normal at the very least.

A system passes by to the north on Thursday that brings nice rains to the Great Lakes into southern Ontario. This will drag a little bit of moisture down across the northern third of Indiana. Moisture does not look as impressive here, and we think that barely a few hundredths of an inch will be seen, but we will allow up to .1” in one or two spots. Coverage will be around 60% of the region north of SR 14, generally the same as our forecast yesterday.  We really seem to dodge the action farther south, with only a few clouds around. The biggest thing to notice for Thursday will be a shift in winds to the SW as that low passes by to the north. This will start a short 3 day period of significant warming across the region. Temps will shift to 10-15 degrees above normal for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Strong winds (20-40 mph) drive the initial warm up for Thursday.

Clouds mix with some sun on Friday, but don’t discount an isolated shower or two. The bulk of the state stays precipitation free. Saturday sees the rain kick off in Ohio with the potential of .25”- 1” rains over 60% of the state. We do expect most of our action to be done by Saturday night, and Sunday should start to dry down. That being said…rains strengthen over Ohio as additional moisture surges north. IF the front slows at all, it will be very easy to see rains continue into Sunday morning, so the timing of the frontal passage is what we are watching very close.  The map above shows rain totals through Sunday morning.

Dry Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week to finish out the 10 day period with high pressure in over the region. This is a Canadian high, though, so while temps may not be as cold as the start to this week, we are going to be much colder than the end of this week and start of the weekend. In fact, we think most of next week will have temps back in the 10-15 degrees below normal range.

The extended 11-15 day forecast window shows no significant change from yesterday. WE have strong low pressure complex in the grain plains for the 21^st, and we still expect that system to spread .25”-1.25” rains into the eastern Corn Belt later for the 22^nd and 23^rd. Models suggest lingering clouds, cool air and sprinkles through the 24^th, and then a cooler Canadian high back in for the balance of April. This forecast does not promote a rapid rise in soil temps.

 

Precipitation broke out overnight over most of the state as a minor wave of low pressure pushed into the eastern Corn Belt. This low looks to track north into the great lakes, but we still will see some light snow hold on over the state through part of the day. Generally, this will be this morning in southern Indiana, and on through this afternoon up north. We can see a coating to an inch up north, and just some nuisance snows south bringing a fresh coating. The action does not look to linger through tomorrow now, which will be nice. WE should see good sunshine for tomorrow and Wednesday, even though colder air remains over the top of us.

Action on Thursday looks to be diminished as well. We have low pressure tracking through the great lakes and bringing moisture to WI, MI and Ontario. Some of this will sag south over the northern part of the state, but rain totals will be limited to a few hundredths to a tenth or two. This is significantly lower than our concerns last week, and it all has to do with the low tracking farther north. Temps will begin to moderate, though, as strong south and west winds come in with this circulation passing to the north.

Clouds mix with some sun on Friday, and while we can’t rule out a renegade shower, we do think that most of the region stays dry. Saturday still looks wet, with the potential of .25”- 1” rains over 60% of the state. That coverage is down somewhat from our last look, and it is due to several bigger holes opening up in coverage as the front sweeps through. Another 20% of the state will likely see some rain, but not quite up to that .25” lower threshold. We are dry Sunday, but clouds may hold over the state, as rains continue to pound Ohio.

Dry Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week to finish out the 10 day period. The map above shows total 10 day cumulative precipitation.

Good news…our extended window seems to be trying to trend drier. Cooler air holds through the end of next week, but we also do not pick, up significant precipitation. There is a very strong lower pressure complex in the grain plains for the 21^st, and it looks like it will spread some .25”-1.25” rains into the eastern corn belt late the 22^nd into the 23^rd. Models suggest lingering clouds, cool air and sprinkles through the 24^th, and then a cooler Canadian high back in for the balance of April. So, while the cool temps do not promote as fast of dry down, we at least see lower threats for new moisture in the extended period.