We really could take yesterday’s forecast and just paste it in here this morning. The pattern is very well set as we go forward. Temps should be slightly warmer today over yesterday, and then warming continues this weekend. Once the rains turn off up north this afternoon, we will see that dry  weather hold through the weekend and most of next week.

We continue to monitor Irma closely. Yesterday models slowly snuck the storm back west a little bit, and that blends with our thoughts from earlier in the week that this storm comes right up the FL peninsula. From there, it will work across the southeast. The European model remains steadfast in its attempt to draw moisture close to the State, but now it looks like the system, if it does make it close to the OH river, may be running out of gas by then. So, we continue to keep our forecast dry here through the entire week next week, and will revisit this again Monday morning, once we know where Irma made landfall at, and if we need to tweak our forecast a bit we will.

Our next front remains in our forecast for late next week and the weekend. We have it set to arrive in west to southwest Indiana late on the 16^th and hangs around for a few days. We are leaving our forecast for this system alone in spite of models pushing it back.  That means we are looking for .25”-1” rain and 80% coverage over the state from late the 16^th through at least the 18^th. We think most of the models’ aforementioned delay is being caused by expectations of Irma to slow the pattern further and hold the front up a day or two. We will reserve judgement on that until, again, we see where the remains really want to go. Long story short, while we are not making any serious changes to the forecast this morning, we could be making a number of adjustments Monday morning. So, stay tuned!!

 

No changes to our forecast today. After another cool night, we should see temps slightly warmer today than yesterday, but still below normal for this time of year. We don’t think there will be as much spotty shower action around over the northern part of the state, but we hesitate to rule it out either, due to the cool air mass difference, and some lingering available moisture. Today coverage should be under 25% of the state, and central/southern indiana is dry once again.

Temps begin to warm tomorrow and will be near normal through the weekend, above normal next week. Dry weather will be here through most of next week.

Models continue to flip flop on whether the remains of Irma come up to Indiana or not. We are leaving our dry forecast alone through all of next week, right on up to the afternoon of the 16^th. We are doing this because we don’t think you can accurately predict the track of Irma’s remains over land until you can accurately predict where she will come onshore. Models are trying to pull the entire hurricane farther east as of late. But, the simple fact is that, without Irma, we have no threat of rain next week. So, since we have no strong feeling that she comes here…we cant even put a chance of mositure in for next week. Its just that simple. We are staying with a dry, mild forecast for all of next week.

That next front does arrive in west to southwest Indiana late on the 16^th and hangs around for a few days. We still have no reason to change our thoughts on the front, and are looking for  .25”-1” rain and 80% coverage over the state from late the 16^th through at least the 18^th. The slow moving nature of the front may allow us more rain, but we don’t feel comfortable moving our totals at this time.

So, our mostly dry forecast continues..and outside of the few scattered showers that pester and are persistent over northern parts of the state today, we have no major issues to deal with (unless you need more rain…then, we have a bit of a problem!)

 

Continued cool today with temps below normal. We will see this tomorrow as well. Today we have a minor disturbance rotating through the great lakes region, and it will throw some scattered light shower action down over the northern third to half of the state. The farthest south extent of the moisture will be over eastern Indiana, and the best rains develop off and on over NE Indiana. We like a few hundredths to a third of an inch from US 24 northward. Central and southern Indiana likely see little to no action.

Dry statewide the rest of the week, for Thursday, Friday and the weekend. Temps will slowly rebound late in the week and for the weekend. We see the dryness continuing Monday and Tuesday of next week as well with high pressure in play.

Next week at midweek we still have a question as to whether we find ourselves dealing with the remains of Hurricane Irma. The chances seem relatively small at this point, but we still have to see where Irma truly wants to go in terms of landfall before tracking where her remains may go. We think the best chance will be for rains to miss Indiana, but time will tell, If the remains of Irma do miss, we see dry weather continuing for the rest of the week next week.

In the extended window, we have a front likely arriving for the 17^th and lasting through the 19^th. This is a bigger system than what we were seeing 24 hours ago, and will hang around about 24 hours longer. AT this point we are looking for at least .25”-1” rain and 80% coverage, but we may have to increase those rain totals if the front continues to strengthen.

The biggest takeaway this morning is something we hinted at yesterday, but it is very important;  IF we do not see the remains of Irma get up into our neck of the woods, it means that we string together at least 10 days of completely dry weather across the Hoosier state. If we get temps to warm back to near normal (which we should later this week and weekend) that will accelerate dry down of crops, particularly soybeans that are starting to turn.

 

 

Dry today over the most of the state in the wake of a frontal boundary that brought some rain and thunderstorm action to the state yesterday and last night. Much cooler air comes in behind that boundary today. In fact, the next few days will see temps below normal before we moderate and warm to finish the week, Today will start with some clouds in southern Indiana, where the front lingered a bit, but the farther nroth you go, the better likelihood for sun. We will be dry today through tomorrow midday statewide.

A minor disturbance moves across the great lakes tomorrow afternoon and evening, and some of that moisture will make it down into Indiana. We expect a few scattered showers and across the northern third of the state from tomorrow mid afternoon through sunset. By midnight, everything thing will be gone. We can see a few hundredths to a third of an inch from US 24 northward. Central and southern Indiana see nothing.

Dry statewide the rest of the week, for Thursday, Friday and the weekend. Temps will slowly rebound late in the week and for the weekend. We see the dryness continuing Monday and Tuesday of next week as well with high pressure in play.

Next week at midweek, we may find ourselves dealing with the remains of Hurricane Irma. The European and GFS models both want to bring moisture from Irma up into the eastern corn belt. However, we are not as sold on 1) timing and 2) significance of the moisture. We feel that Irma’s track to Florida or even the east coast is far from set in stone, so to get antsy about rain making it all the way to us here in the Hoosier state, a week and a half out, is a little too soon. But, we may find ourselves with some moisture as an off shoot of the tropical event. If we do, we likely are looking at rains in the range of .25”-75” and 60% coverage…rather than the heavier rains that moved in to the OH valley after Harvey.

In the extended window, we have a front likely arriving for the 17^th into the 18^th that can bring .25”-1” rain and 80% coverage, but that is the only significant weather system in the 11-16 day window. So…if we do not see the remains of Irma, that likely means we string together a good 10 days or more of dry weather across the Hoosier state.