South America weather:

• Showers and thunderstorms are popping up in Matto Grosso today, with scattered hit and miss showers through the rest of the week and into the weekend elsewhere, giving .5-1.5” of rains over 75% of growing areas.
• Hit and miss shower action continues early next week, Monday-Wednesday.
• The showers get better organized from Wednesday afternoon-Friday, with moisture moving across Parana and Sao Paulo, over northern Matto Grosso do Sul, into Matto Grosso and Goias.
• Combined rain totals look like 1-2” and then a big batch of heavier rains fall in western Matto Grosso on Thursday-Friday, adding an addition 1” of rain.
• Some of the heaviest precipitation develops outside of the main growing areas west of Matto Grosso on Friday-Saturday of next week.
• The rest of Brazil stays a little drier next weekend but it’s nothing to be concerned about at this point.
• Moisture moves back in during the 11-16-day forecast with .5-2” combined in that forecast.
• Temps in Brazil are trending higher, normal to slightly above over the next 7-10 days, with the good moisture and slightly above normal temps through the end of the month.
• Drier weather is emerging in Argentina over the next few days as high pressure over Buenos Aires transfers east.
• A minor front kicks up over BA on Friday night and heads north, turning into a bigger deal in the northern third of the country Saturday night-Sunday with .5-1” totals, but nothing more than scattered showers in BA, southern Cordoba, and into La Pampa.
• Later next weekend-early next week, the northern feature turns into a bigger mess, with coverage expanding to the northern half of the country Sunday night-Monday, with totals over that period from .5-2” in the northern half of the region.
• That likely means we’ll see net drying in central and southern Argentina through the first part of next week.
• Strong high pressure parks over the country and keeps things dry Tuesday-Thursday.
• Showers kick up in SW BA on Thursday afternoon, but they go away quickly and things stay dry through Friday.
• Despite rains in the northern half of the country, the overall 10-day pattern is drier, and that’ll take the temps to normal to above, but normal to slightly below over this weekend.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Warmer air is moving in over the next few days and cold temps over the region should ease quickly by this weekend.
• They’ll see well above normal temps, right at freezing and above, and any systems that come in will be all rain.
• Temps fall back into the single digits by Saturday afternoon, so snow is possible in Ukraine and central/southern Russia into early next week.
• Temps in the single digits and below zero from Sunday-Tuesday, so if the snow does melt, it’ll be talked about a lot in the markets.
• I don’t think it will lead to wide ranging winterkill, but the roller coaster temps are something to keep an eye on.
• No over the top moisture over the next ten days

Corn Belt weather:

• Heavy rains over the eastern Corn Belt will total .25-1.25” today before it moves north and east; there may even be heavy thunderstorms mixed in with the rain in OH.
• Behind the rain, a strong arctic high pressure dome is pushing down temps well below zero in the northern plains by tonight, including temps of 24-30 degrees below zero in ND; temps fall off dramatically later today-this evening in the eastern Corn Belt.
• High pressure is over WI tomorrow and another one is over the Deep South, and moisture starts to move in between them into the OH and MS river valleys.
• Light moisture will move over southern IL, southern IN, and MO midday Saturday and then moves north.
• Moisture then moves up from northern MO, southern IA, into IL on Sunday morning, moving eastward across the rest of the Corn Belt.
• From Friday night-Monday night, combined totals look like .25-1” with coverage at 75-80% of the Corn Belt.
• The moisture likely lingers in the eastern Corn Belt on Tuesday, including IN, OH, MI, and into KY, with the all clear on Wednesday.
• A dry period follows that activity from Wednesday-Friday in the western Corn Belt; the eastern Belt will see a secondary low come up the old frontal boundary on Thursday with another round of rains in IN and OH, as well as southeast IL, totaling .5-1.5” of moisture with coverage in those areas at 75-80%.
• After that, a strong low develops in KS and OK late next Friday, moving into the Corn Belt with .25-.5” of rain in the western Corn Belt on Friday-Saturday.
• It’s a very active pattern across the Corn Belt with heavier rains from now-January 23 over the eastern half of the Corn Belt.
• Temps will be normal to above through next weekend until a massive cold air push starting on January 24.

 

Deep South weather:

• High pressure is in control right now through the weekend, but a stormy pattern is about to emerge.
• Moisture begins to move up the backside of the high this weekend, into east TX and east OK, curving around the topside and bringing light rains to KY on Saturday-Sunday, but the rest of the region is dry through Monday.
• Things change on Monday night as thunderstorms fire off in east TX and OK, moving into AR and LA, and then the complex marches across the rest of the region from Tuesday-Thursday.
• It doesn’t move quickly because of a blocking high pressure that sits right off the southeast coast, so that means multi-day totals in the western half of the region at 2” or better, and then rains of an inch try to exit the eastern Deep South later next week.
• After moderate to heavy rains Tuesday-Friday, another batch of rains totaling .5-1.5” comes up off the Gulf Coast areas like LA, MS, AL, and GA next Friday afternoon; then another system works into the west next Saturday, worth another .25-.5” of rains.
• People talking about dryness concerns in the south won’t have to talk about that after next week as it gets very wet.
• Temps in the Deep South will be above normal.

 

Great Plains weather:

• No major weather problems today-tomorrow.
• Temps in ND and SD are very cold as strong high pressure is in control, getting from 24-30 degrees below zero tonight-tomorrow morning.
• The cold air mass will push all the way down into OK and get temps below freezing through central OK tomorrow morning.
• That’s key as moisture comes around the backside of the southeast high pressure dome tomorrow afternoon.
• It starts as rain in southeast OK Friday night-Saturday, but ice concerns kick up Saturday in central and southeast KS and north central OK; ice accumulations look like 1/3” but 1-1.25” of heavy warm rains will follow ice accumulations where it shows up.
• The prime period for ice development is Saturday morning-midday, changing over to all rains by Sunday morning.
• Precipitation goes on from Sunday-Monday, with some of the heaviest in the central plains, pushing north as snow in NE and SD.
• The system will exit the plains by Tuesday morning, with dry weather Tuesday-Thursday before a couple of minor lows kick out into the plains with light amounts in TX, OK, and southern KS Thursday night-Friday.
• Temps in the great plains flirt with the freezing mark early on but then moderate to 10-20 degrees above normal in the northern plains and 5-15 above normal elsewhere.

 

Rain is back into the state this morning, developing overnight. Rains will be heavy at times through the day over the northern half to third of the state. Some of the heaviest rains in the northern third actually kicked off during the overnight, and through the day we will see them continue. Colder air slowly leaks into the state from the north and west today as well, as temps sneak down into the 32-35-degree range, we think most of the precipitation stays rain, but we would not completely rule out some sloppy wet snowflakes either. Accumulations are not likely, but localized flooding is today. Storminess may not reach Tuesday night’s zenith, but today will not be nice – but rather wet and blustery. Rain totals w should end up between half and 1.5” over the northern half of the state, .25”-.75 over the south, with rain hitting 90% of the state in those ranges. The map above shows cumulative rainfall through tonight.

By Friday morning, all moisture is off to the east and we see colder, drier air coming in. Temps will be freezing or below all the way down to the OH river Friday morning. We should see some sunshine, but it will be through high and mid-level clouds over most of the state. By Saturday morning, moisture is on its way back into the state. However, the weekend forecast is not anywhere near an easy call at this point. We see moisture wrapping around the top side of strong high pressure off the east coast, coming up out of the OH valley. Meanwhile, to the north, strong arctic high pressure wants to keep cold air in play. So, we could be looking at a scenario that brings rain, ice and snow into the state Saturday and Sunday. The freezing like sets up over central Indiana, which would point toward a potential for ice accumulation from central Indiana up into northern Indiana Saturday and Sunday. Moderating temps attempt to push north on Sunday, but right now, it is a model run to model run game as to where things set up. Our view at this point is to look for little to no precipitation in far northern Indiana on Saturday, with scattered rain in central and southern Indiana. We will keep a watch on Saturday for some ice in the SR 28 to US 40 geographical area. Sunday, with more moisture pushing in over larger areas, we have to keep the potential for some freezing rains anywhere from I-70 to US 24. Atmospheric profiles show temps up to 3-5 degrees Celsius while surface temps are closer to or below freezing in some of these areas – that is a recipe for freezing rain. However, we will have to take close looks at this later today and then again tomorrow before really zeroing in on the storm potential.

Monday we should see rains over the entire state, potentially .25”-.75”, and then Tuesday and Wednesday, half to 1.5” rains over the southern half of the state, with the heavy rain sagging south of the oh river valley sometime Wednesday afternoon. Lingering moisture could hold over the state into Wednesday night and Thursday, wrapping around the backside of low pressure in OH, but will only total a few tenths maximum. Clouds and more rain is back in for next Friday night into Saturday, perhaps another half to 1 inch.

Here is a thought: with all of the precipitation we have coming across the state in the next 10 days…if it were all snow – we would see the state buried under 2-3 feet. But, it’s not snow. It’s all liquid. The ice threat this weekend is the only “winter” like weather that we have…and even that is not true winter.

In the extended period, we have another strong front with half to 1.5” rain potential for the 22^nd and 23^rd. This will come with another strong south wind and warm air surge. But, this time around, we see a dramatic shift in temps behind the front, as strong arctic high pressure dives in. we should be much colder for the 24^th and 25^th, and then see a strong NW front for the 26^th into the 27^th that can bring snow, and nasty cold for the finish of the month

 

South American weather:

• No significant change to the overall pattern in Brazil, with just scattered pop up showers through the end of this week in most key crop areas.
• Some better thunderstorm development possible in Parana and Sao Paulo areas along the coast.
• If you combine all key growing areas from now-the weekend, totals will be .5-1.5” of rains, which is actually slightly below normal.
• Better precipitation will come together Saturday in Minas Gerais and will lift north into Bahia, so those very dry areas will pick up nice rains on Saturday, totaling .5-1.5” with 75-80% coverage.
• A better frontal boundary setup moves in by early next week, with better precipitation Monday-Wednesday, moving from Matto Grosso do Sul up through Matto Grosso, with two day totals on Monday-Tuesday of .5-1” and 75% coverage in those areas.
• The plume of moisture will get stronger further east, from Rio Grande do Sul through southeast Brazil, up through Goias, they’ll see .5-1.5” rain totals Tuesday-early Thursday.
• The action then shifts back west to finish next week, Thursday-Friday, with rains of 1-2” over Matto Grosso Thursday afternoon with 90% coverage.
• The active pattern continues with thunderstorms through the end of next weekend; not reallly frontal based but just good convection over Matto Grosso, MGDS, with those areas finishing the week with another .5-1” of rains.
• Good rain totals over the next 10 days with 85-90% coverage of 2-3” rains.
• Temps are mostly normal to slightly above, with a warming trend ahead for the 11-16 day forecast, but it doesn’t look like excessive heat.
• Strong precipitation is in the forecast for the rest of this week in Argentina up in the far northern parts, which is outside of most key growing areas.
• There won’t be much rain in key areas from today-Friday, but Friday night-Saturday, a front sweeps through the northern half of the country, including northern Santa Fe and areas to the north.
• Totals look like .25-1.5” and coverage will be 75-80% of the northern third of Argentina.
• The central third sees about 30% coverage as the rains really park over the northern third of the country on Sunday-Monday.
• Mostly dry weather will start the week on Monday-Wednesday, before a better system comes together over the second half of the week, starting wednsday in southern La Pampa, southern Cordoba, beforer heading northeast, hitting all areas that didn’t get any of the rains that fell this weekend.
• The central and southern thirds of all growing areas will get .5-2” totals with 80-90% coverage in those areas; it does head north but falls apart a bit, so they’ll see lesser amounts up there.
• Over the next ten days, they’ll see really good rainfall spread over all Argentina growing areas and coverage will be at 100%, with at least 1-2” totals.
• Temps will be normal to slightly below in Argentina.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Warmer air is moving in over the next few days and cold temps over the region should ease quickly by this weekend.
• They’ll see well above normal temps, right at freezing and above, and any systems that come in will be all rain.
• Temps fall back into the single digits by Saturday afternoon, so snow is possible in Ukraine and central/southern Russia into early next week.
• Temps in the single digits and below zero from Sunday-Tuesday, so if the snow does melt, it’ll be talked about a lot in the markets.
• I don’t think it will lead to wide ranging winterkill, but the roller coaster temps are something to keep an eye on.
• No over the top moisture over the next ten days