Corn Belt weather:

• An upper level disturbance is moving through the northeast Corn Belt this morning, with WI and MI picking up snow along with light freezing rain, and this system will continue to grow.
• They’ll see a strong low pressure circulation over northern Lake MI this afternoon with significant moisture, and snows will fall in WI, rain in MI, and more rain across IL and IN.
• Moisture totals not impressive right now with .25-.5” out of it before it moves away.
• A slight push of colder air comes in on north winds, but it’ll be short lived as another wave comes out of the old cold front along the OH River valley along with KY and TN, and then low pressure moves into IL by tomorrow evening.
• This will put down rain in the Corn Belt east of the MS River, including light amounts in IL, but heavier amounts fall in IN, OH, and lower MI, with rains there totaling .25-1”.
• Temps in IN may be down to 32-35 degrees and that may mean some freezing rain falling in IN and northwest OH.
• 2 day totals out of the event may add up today and tonight, plus tomorrow night-Thursday, looking like .5-1.25” of liquid equivalent.
• Strong high pressure follows this in as an arctic high, pushing temps way below normal in the Upper Midwest, with those cold temps reaching the I-80 corridor.
• As it slides to the east, moisture comes up the top and backside of high pressure sitting over the Deep South, drawing through the MO boot heel along with southern IL and southern IN Friday night-Saturday.
• That same setup is in play this weekend, adding .5-1.5” in the OH River valley over 3-4 days, farther north they’ll see .25-.75”, with the only question being how much rain and how much snow.
• A significant system moves out of the plains and into the Corn Belt Monday-Tuesday with a good batch of rain totaling .25-.5” from I-80 southward and a couple inches of snow from I-80 northward.
• Strong high pressure comes in behind it, but it’s not an arctic high, with temps staying above normal to finish out next week, likely a January thaw across the Corn Belt.

 

Deep South weather:

• The Deep South is seeing gusty winds here today, especially through the mid and lower MS River valley, where the winds are howling.
• A few showers may pop up this evening in the northwest part of the region, northern AR, western TN, and western KY.
• Scattered showers move through TN and KY totaling .25” or less tonight.
• Lingering moisture remains at the Mason Dixon line tomorrow evening before a frontal boundary complex tries to sag through but may not quite make it.
• A strong high sitting just off the Atlantic coast will cause everything to die out as it moves through the region.
• As an arctic high digs into the Corn Belt, the high off the coast moves back inland to SC and GA, taking full control of the region Friday-Sunday, pushing moisture farther north into KY and staying there.
• Moisture then comes around the backside of the high and up through the OH River valley over the weekend, keeping the Deep South dry, except for a few showers moving through AR and the MO boot heel.
• Next week, that high still sits over the region but gets kicked out by a strong front coming out of the plains on Monday, as showers and thunderstorms move through AR into LA, with totals west of the MS River at .5-1” of moisture.
• Will it hold east of the river? Maybe… It should kick into gear Tuesday night-Wednesday, dragging the moisture with it across MS, AL, and into GA on Wednesday-Thursday, with totals of .5-1.5” combined with 85-90% coverage in the region.
• No massive cool down is coming in behind the activity as temps stay normal to above to finish next week and go into the weekend.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Fairly calm in the plains with some light snow trying to exit ND and SD this morning and cold air is advancing, with temps below zero in the Dakotas over the next couple of days.
• Won’t see that same story farther south as winds have moderated temps over KS and southern NE, and gusty winds will kick up where the cold air runs into the warmer air, making a tight temperature gradient through tomorrow.
• This weekend will be interesting as many folks are jumping all over the major ice storm angle this weekend.
• Strong high pressure over the Deep South and moisture is coming around the backside and over the top into the central plains, the MO River valley and OH River valley.
• That could lead to some ice but there isn’t a lot of organization to it just yet, so I’m not sure it’s going to be an epic ice storm for sure.
• The best liquid will fall further to the south in eastern OK, northern TX, and southwest MO, Friday night-Saturday, which means it won’t be a wide ranging event.
• The moisture stays in those areas and temps will be 32-35, so it could flip back and forth from rain to freezing rain, before the 32 degree temp line moves back north on Saturday.
• That means it should transition to all rain in TX and OK on Saturday, so we may have to see if it flips back to more frozen rain during the overnight hours on Saturday night-Sunday morning.
• Another area of concern is KS as the moisture moves farther north on Sunday morning.
• Yes, there is potential for ice and freezing rain, but it could also trigger some snow, so we’ll keep a close eye on this going forward.
• Once the system moves out, strong high pressure will move in on Monday night and give a dry scenario to most of the plains, with sunny skies and temps normal to above.

South America weather:

• The week is starting relatively dry in Brazil, except for a cluster of showers in Sao Paulo into Parana tonight-tomorrow totaling .25-1.25” of moisture.
• Another front develops tomorrow, coming from Rio Grande do Sul up through the southeast into Matto Grosso do Sul, into Goias, and has a good plume of moisture that leaves behind .5-1.5” with coverage at 80% in those areas.
• Matto Grosso doesn’t see much more than popup showers through Thursday morning.
• A front develops on Thursday that sweeps from south to north over the entire region Thursday-Saturday, bringing .5-1.5” combined over 75-80% of key soybean areas.
• This rain activity will hit some of the drier areas in northeast Brazil, it’s just a question of how much.
• .5-1” of moisture develops in Bahia early next week before popup showers continue elsewhere on Monday-Tuesday.
• A front looks to move through MGDS on Tuesday, heading straight north and could bring good rains to MG as well.
• All of Brazil’s key growing areas over the next ten days could pick up 2-3.5” of rain, which is close to normal this time of year, and it should cover 80-85%.
• Temps will be normal to slightly above, with the warmest air over the drier parts in the northeast, but those look to have pulled back a bit as well.
• A few scattered showers trying to hold on in BA this morning in Argentina, but another front works across all growing areas late today-tomorrow, bringing .5-2” rains with coverage at 90% of growing areas.
• It should be dry from tomorrow afternoon-Thursday, with just a bit of moisture lingering in the north.
• The next good front will wait until the weekend, bringing moisture to only the northern half of growing areas totaling .5-1.5” totals from Friday night-early Sunday.
• High pressure follows that in to cover all of Argentina from Monday-Wednesday, which may mean 4-5 days of dryness in some of the more wet areas of the country by the end of next week and into the weekend.
• Temps should be normal to slightly below, even though a couple periods will see temps close to normal; the below normal temps in the day and above normal temps at night pattern looks to continue.
• The southern part of Argentina may pick up some heat early next week.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea

• Scattered light snow develops over eastern Ukraine today-tomorrow, totaling a couple inches.
• A strong high pressure dome dominates for the rest of the week, Wednesday-Friday.
• Temps begin to moderate by the end of the week as the high moves away and strong south wind flow moves in, pushing temps above normal in central and southern Russia and Ukraine.
• A mix of rain and snow hit Ukraine and central Russia from Saturday night-Monday morning.
• Above normal temps continue next week so there is some concern about snow melt.

Corn Belt weather:

• Strong high pressure is moving east, allowing south winds to kick up in the Corn Belt, moderating temps dramatically in MO, IA, IL, IN, and OH.
• There is a small batch of snow moving through the NW Great Lakes region that’ll be worth a coating to 1” only.
• South winds continue to blow on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north into the northern plains and Upper Midwest tonight-tomorrow, bringing 2-3” of snow across MN and WI, while the best snows develop tomorrow morning in eastern WI up into the northern Great Lakes area.
• Strong winds continue tomorrow while low pressure works into IA and draws moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico, giving rains over IA, IL, WI, and MI, with the rain likely changing to snow in northern MI.
• Rain totals from I-80 southward look like .25-.75” and rains north of I-80 look like .5-.75” of moisture, while snow accumluations in the Great Lakes will be 3-6” or better.
• Cold air is already moving in by Wednesday morning, keeping thing dry through the first half of the day, but the cold air doesn’t last long.
• A secondary low wants to move across the area Wednesday night-Thursday, bringing .25-1” rains in the eastern Corn Belt, including IL, IN, MI, and OH, and the heaviest rains likely are in eastern IN and OH.
• Cold air reasserts itself on Friday as a strong arctic high pushes down into the Upper Midwest by Friday, but it has problems pushing a long ways south, so it’s a warm air versus cold air battle right along the OH River valley.
• High pressure will sit over MN, WI, and IL, with another strong high that sits in the southeast US.
• A band of moisture gets pinched right in between those highs, stuck from eastern OK, across MO, southern IL, along the OH River in IN, and all of KY.
• This moisture won’t go anywhere for several days, on through Friday, before trying to push northward as the northern high moves into Canada, probably reaching I-70 on Saturday.
• Through the rest of the weekend, the moisture circulates around the top edge of the southeastern US high, making it a 3-4 day wet period in the eastern Corn Belt.
• Things stay pretty wet in the eastern Corn Belt through next week before another low comes in and gathers up the mositure before moving out.\
• Another .25-1” of rain in the eastern Corn Belt on Wednesday night and then things are finally done, with cooler and drier air coming in by the middle of next week.
• While the eastern Corn Belt looks wet, the Upper Midwest and western Corn Belt won’t see much after the action early this week.
• Temps will be near normal for the period and there isn’t a huge deep freeze coming even though it will be cold.

 

Deep South weather:

• The south will be dominated by strong high pressure in the wake of that massive winter storm that crippled areas of the Carolinas over the weekend and strong southwest winds warm things up for a couple of days.
• Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, a frontal boundary could throw some light precipitaiton into parts of KY and TN, totaling a few tenths or less.
• Through the rest of the week, the only spots with precipitation likely are in the northern parts of the region as moisture lingers in KY and TN from Thursday-the weekend, but the rest of the Deep South is under the influence of high pressure and remain dry through the rest of this week and most of next.
• Tuesday-Wednesday of next week, better shower action will take place out west in parts of AR and LA, with 1-2” possible in AR on Monday before both states get .5-1.5” on Tuesday.
• The action then crosses the MS River late Tuesday-Wednesday, then spreading across the rest of the Deep South Thursday-Friday.
• Combined totals from Wednesday-Friday look like .25-1.5” with 75-80% coverage in the Deep South.
• Temps should be near normal to slightly above, even though freezing temps make an occasional incursion into the Deep south, the incursions are hit and miss.

 

Great Plains weather:

• A fairly quiet period is trying to emerge in the plains, except for gusty winds today and tomorrow.
• A strong low moves into the northern plains, bringing snow to ND and SD late this afternoon-early tomorrow, totaling 1-3” before cold air moves down into the Dakotas for the rest of the week.
• The cold air won’t progress much farther south than I-90, so the rest of the plains should be closer to normal with no really significant precipitation through the end of the week.
• An arctic high digs into the Dakotas on Friday-Saturday but shouldn’t progress much farther south than I-90 again.
• Showers and thunderstorms move into KS, OK, and TX this weekend as low pressure develops, with the central plains on the top and backside of the low, so that’s where heavier precipitation is likely to develop.
• That means rain and snow for the plains through the weekend before a drier period develops next week, even though a little precipitation may hang on in OK and TX through Wednesday.
• The northern plains won’t have much to worry about after early this week except for cold temps.

South America weather:

• The pattern is mostly unchanged in Brazil but there will be better thunderstorm development this afternoon-tomorrow, in southeast Brazil, including Matto Grosso do Sul through Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with totals of .5-1.5” but they won’t spread to the north.
• The rest of the country seems mostly dry through tomorrow with very few pop up showers anywhere.
• A line of showers develops Sunday night-Monday morning in eastern Matto Grosso but it doesn’t seem to hold together well, so it’s mostly hit and miss action from Sunday night-Tuesday.
• By Tuesday night-Wednesday, they’ll see some nice circulation in south/southeast Brazil that will slowly move showers north, through MG, Goias, and western Minas Gerais, with these showers possibly a seed for more action later in the week.
• Tuesday night-Friday, I like 1-3” combined with 90% coverage over all growing areas, including the driest areas of northeast Brazil like Bahia, northeast Minas Gerais, and all the drier areas should pick up very good rains next week.
• Following that, they’ll see hit and miss action with no good organization through next weekend.
• There is a circulation off the Atlantic coast of Brazil that could put together a front that sweeps through Brazil late next Sunday the 15^th through the 17^th and brings another 1-2” of rain.
• Temps in Brazil trending above normal over most of the country, with the warmest temps in northeast Brazil peaking this weekend before pulling back closer to normal.
• Strong high pressure sits over Buenos Aires province right now and holds through the weekend, but there will be a few scattered showers moving over the northern half of Argentina through tomorrow and Sunday totaling .5-1” in spots and staying just north of the hardest hit areas from earlier this week.
• A few more scattered thunderstorms pop up Sunday-Monday and that seems to be the story over the next 4-5 days as there won’t be any significant frontal boundary action, but that may change by next Tuesday.
• A strong front will work through the northern half of Argentina that could give .5-2” totals in localized areas and it will stay just north of the hardest hit areas again.
• After that, Argentina wants to trend a little bit drier, with just scattered showers possible in northern Argentina on Wednesday-Thursday but it’s not a big crop growing area.
• A front is then set to move over BA, southern Cordoba, and La Pampa on Friday-Saturday, bringing .5-1” totals with coverage at 75-80%, before adding more moisture to itself and dropping a little more rain in the central and northern areas.
• Temps will trend normal to below normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea weather:

• They’re continuing to see temps normal to slightly above in the region but it is starting to trend toward colder temps over the next 7-10 days.
• Zero and sub-zero temps likely over most of the Ukraine this weekend and early next week.
• A system coming through will bring snow to Ukraine and central Russia totaling 4-8” over the next 2-3 days in eastern Ukraine and central Russia.
• Temps stay zero and below through the middle of next week before things begin to moderate next week on Thursday-Friday with a 20-25-degree surge in temps thanks to strong south winds.
• It’s short lived as temps fall right back down next weekend.
• Two more fronts come through in the forecast so moisture should be decent.
• Crops don’t like the up and down temps but if they can keep the snowpack around it should be okay.